Storms, cooler weather, and Millie sneaks some more air time

Severe threat for Wednesday

Welcome to Tuesday! The week has started out a little on the stormy side for some, with 60-70 mph winds reported across northwest Kansas Monday evening. Strongest gust I saw reported was 64 mph near Atwood around 10 p.m. Monday. There are some lingering showers and storms around this morning and we should see a few more redevelop late in the afternoon across central and eastern Kansas The severe weather threat for today is very low. There is a higher likelihood of some severe storms coming up Wednesday afternoon. Right now, it looks like the hail and wind producing storms will form along and east of I-135 and north of I-70, but as Wednesday evening continues, the activity that develops to the north will be spreading across the rest of the state. So it should be a busy evening with storms and hopefully, the areas that need rain will get it.

Rain forecast for Tuesday - 7 p.m. Thursday

Showers may linger Thursday morning, but the afternoon dries out and it will be MUCH cooler heading through Thursday and Friday. The weather pattern is likely to shift again at the end of the week, so we will say goodbye to the rain chances and just focus on the temperatures through the weekend and the start of next week.

Weather pattern shift for the weekend into start of next week (October 6)

And how about Millie stealing the show Monday evening at 9 p.m.? Most of the time, she's walking around in the weather center while I'm delivering the weather, but Monday night, she decided to get an up close look at the storms with me. She's only 18 inches tall, but that's high enough to get on camera in our studio. I'm glad she didn't have a tail sticking up or it would've interfered with my storm tracking. I guess now that she's 10 AND a huge celebrity, she can do whatever she wants... and get away with it. Have a good day.

Millie sneaking into my weathercast

Storms this week; some severe

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. The weather has been so quiet around here for the last 4 or 5 days. The last cold front to push through Kansas was over a week ago and we've had a lengthy stretch of 80 degree (above normal) temperatures.

Wind pattern aloft for today. Storm is approaching from the western US

But it's fall now and changes are bound to take place this week. The transition from 80s to 70s could result in severe storms for Kansas. This is basically our second season for severe weather, and we will need to keep an eye on things. The severe threat Monday night will be in far western Kansas and then spreading east for Tuesday and Wednesday. The greatest potential for severe weather will be Wednesday across central and eastern Kansas. Hail and wind is the main threat, but with shifting winds in the atmosphere, a few tornadoes are possible too. 

We've been watching this large storm system over the western US now for a couple of days and it's finally headed east. The increase in wind (and shifting winds higher up) will favor hail producing storms.

Here are my thoughts for this week:

Monday evening/night: Storms moving into western Kansas after 6 p.m. - some could be severe

Tuesday: Focus for scattered storms will shift east (areas basically east of line from Russell to Dodge City) - timing: after 3 or 4 p.m., but even more likely after dark across central and northern Kansas

Wednesday: Scattered storms early in the morning, then some afternoon sun with more storms developing late afternoon and into the evening. Main focus will be east of a Hays to Dodge City line. 

Thursday: Early a.m. sprinkles or showers moving out, breezy and MUCH cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Autumn weather returns... finally!

Much cooler air slides in by Thursday and Friday

The weather pattern will shift again toward the end of the week and allow for dry and warm weather to return heading into our first weekend of October.

Happy 10 years Millie!!!!

Today is a special day because Millie is turning 10 years old. According to "pedigree.com", Millie would be 56 in human years. I feel very lucky to have such a great companion and I would've never guessed that when I decided to get a dog in 2004 and name her Millie, she would basically become a household name. Some of you that came by the KWCH booth at the state fair already know the story, but basically, I never had any intentions of having a weather dog. She was just a cute puppy, starting coming to work with me on weekends, and after a few random appearances on TV, people starting catching on. I won't forget the first few emails and phone calls from viewers wanting to know if that was a stuffed animal sitting behind me in the weather office. Well, hardly, and after several Answer Back 12 segments, people started to figure out that Millie was part of the crew at KWCH. I have a lot of stories I could share, but I won't waste any more of your time. How about some favorite Millie pictures to celebrate her day. I'm happy to say that her health is as good as it could be for her age, and we hope for many more memories both on and off air.

Finally some rain, and getting active next week

From Brandon Ivey - Valley Center

Some areas that have been begging for rain finally had some last night and there is still some rain chance through about noon today. Some awesome (but dangerous) lightning last night. Did you know that before we actually see the lightning bolt with our eyes, the channel of electricity has already connected. Lightning is the 2nd leading cause of death from weather events (right behind flooding) The thunder that we hear is the rapid expansion of the heated air surrounding lightning bolts.

Brandon Ivey - Valley Center

Looking at the pattern through the rest of the week and into the weekend, we will see things quiet down around Kansas, but it's about to get active again on the west coast. I posted the map yesterday showing the drought in California and how widespread it has become. A strong storm system is coming on shore during the weekend that will hopefully create a much more favorable environment for the firefighters to get control. They need rain so bad in the western US. The storm system will be very slow to move, but by Monday, it should be kicking out over the Rockies and eventually, bringing a little more rain to parts of Kansas and surrounding areas. I think the best chance will be across northern Kansas.

Watching the system across the west late in the weekend

Western storm system heads for the central US early next week

Next cold front for Kansas will be headed into our area middle of next week

The next cold front won't get here until next Wednesday at the earliest. So if you like the 80 degree weather we are having, well, that will continue for awhile longer. I don't expect the temperatures to change much through the start of next week.

If you've read this far down in today's blog... tomorrow (Thursday) is Millie's 10th birthday. Where does the time go??

Welcome fall, some rain, and a school talk

This is our first, full day of autumn in Kansas and the weather we see today is about what you'd expect in September. Highs around 80 is considered normal or average. The morning rain in Kansas has lead to some awesome sunrise pictures coming in on Twitter. Thanks for sharing them. I enjoy using them on the air and right here on the blog.

Brittany Birch - sunrise 9-23

Darren Schmidt - Inman - sunrise 9-23

Pattern through midweek

Any rain in Kansas this morning will end with the afternoon looking dry. There is a storm system that is directly above us today and tomorrow that could stir up some more rain later tonight and early Wednesday. It's not severe weather, but some much needed moisture should develop heading into Tuesday evening. I'm expecting rainfall amounts between .25 and .50" for most of the area, but some could get a little more and others may get missed altogether.

California's widespread drought situation

Another big storm system is going to be slamming into the west coast late in the week. The wildfires in the west have been destructive and a huge challenge for firefighters, but they should get some help Friday and into the weekend. Look at how much of California is in "exceptional" drought (roughly 85-90% of the state)  We need some rain around here, but they need it even more across the western US.

Millie and I visited Meadowlark Elementary School on Monday to see the 5th graders. They were a lively bunch and had some great questions. While I talked about tornadoes and cold fronts, Millie walks around the room picking up crumbs and in some cases, crayons. She's a real joy to take to the classroom.

Have a good day!

Almost fall, another rain chance, and Millie/motorcycles

Fall will officially be here at 9:29 tonight and if that makes you a little sad, let me assure you that the weather is not going to change in any significant manner this week. Temperatures will stay close to 80 over the next week or so and we hope... fingers crossed, that we will get some moisture. I know several farmers are busy planting next years wheat crop. Some would probably prefer to put the rain on hold, but we are heading into a drier time of year (on average) and we have to get the moisture while we can. Sunrise and sunset are both around 7:30 now (it's an equinox... equal day and night)

In the last month, Wichita has had less than .50 of rain when normally, we should expect over 3.50 inches. Parts of southwest Kansas have moved back into severe drought.

Forecast rain Tuesday and Wednesday

The storm system we are watching is just west of the Rockies this morning and moving our way. The problem is 1) The system is weakening 2) There is a limited amount of moisture to work with. So we can't expect to get any huge amounts of rain when we have such little moisture.

It's a little unusual to not have any strong cold fronts coming this way for the start of fall, but in reality, our next cold front is more than a week away. So don't expect any big temperature changes soon.

Millie and I greeted some of the bikers on Saturday at the "Ride for the Dogs Poker Run" benefiting the Caring Hands Humane Society in Newton. Some of the bikers thought Millie and I should have a motorcycle, but that's probably not in our immediate future.We need to find a helmet first.

Have a good Monday!

Hail, rainfall totals, and a slight adjustment for the weekend.

Shawn Roth at 1:15 a.m. in Minneapolis

Loretta Campbell - Minneapolis

Storms blew up last night across northern Kansas and prompted some severe thunderstorm warnings for areas north of Salina. Pictures coming into Stormshots showed walnut and golf ball size hail fell with some of the activity. Those storms then continued southeast and produced a lot of rain from Junction City down through Emporia and into southeast Kansas.
24 Hr Rainfall Amounts:
Chanute: 2.55"
Emporia: 1.23"
Salina: 0.72"

The weather today and tomorrow will be warm (or hot, depending on how you want to look at it)  but we are in between storm chances now. We are waiting to see exactly where the heaviest moisture with leftover Odile will go, but based on the most recent model runs, I expect the heaviest will end up in Oklahoma. AND, the chances for rain and storms will be starting later than earlier expected. I think the bulk of rain will come Saturday rather than Friday night. So we shouldn't have much to worry about with high school football games.

KSU plays a big game tonight. The weather is looking good for that one. I'm a KU grad, but still enjoy watching the Cats in football and think it will be a fun one to watch.

I didn't get to post these pictures yesterday, but Millie and I visited some of the residents at the Oxford Grand Assisted Living center on Tuesday. Millie (as she always does) works the crowd and distracts the audience from what I have to say. I tell everyone she's heard my weather talk 100 times and couldn't care less, so she walks around trying to find someone who will cave into her sweet face and throw her some food. She's wonderful.

Have a great day!!