Snow in November & El Nino may be starting

We've had some really nice fall weather this week in Kansas. Fairly typical for early November with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 30s. But as we've been talking about all week long, the big change will be next week when a STRONG cold front drops through on Monday, sending us back into the 30s for highs. It will be cold enough for our first snow. Once the Arctic air gets here, it's not going to move much through the week. Will we get snow?? It's highly unlikely there will be any big snow events next week (week of Nov. 10) but some of the forecast models are showing at least some light snow or flurries may be possible as early as Monday night or Tuesday morning. There could be another chance later in the week, but the way the pattern is shaping up, it doesn't look like we will have any shoveling to do anytime soon.

Snow isn't unusual in November. In fact, much of the state (on average) gets at least some snow this month. You can click on the image to make it larger. Goodland leads the way with an average November snow of over 4 inches.

Water temperatures showing the early stages of a weak El Nino

We've been expecting El Nino to make a return at any time, and it looks like it is just getting started. There is a particular region in the Pacific where the water temperatures (for 5 consecutive months) have to be .5 Celsius warmer than normal in order for it to be classified as "El Nino". And recent indications are we have reached .6 - .7 That would be considered a weak event, and this is not likely to be anything stronger than that. An El Nino event is significant because it generally has an influence on the weather patterns. El Nino winters around here are usually wetter than normal, but not always. That's what makes forecasting complicated, but one to watch as we head into the cold season. There's a chance this El Nino will continue into spring too, but it will likely continue as a weak event. We will of course be watching and if I see something on the horizon that looks like a big impact, I'll be sure to address it here. Have a good day!