Snow and cold this weekend - active next week too

Happy Friday everyone! All week we've been talking about messy weather for the weekend and it's still on track to be here Saturday for most of the state. We've already had some light snow in western Kansas today, but the main round of moisture will come from the southwest after midnight into early Saturday.

This is not going to be a major snow maker around Kansas. The heaviest amounts in the state will likely fall around Topeka, Lawrence, and KC with some 6 inch amounts possible by Saturday night. Much of central and southern Kansas will get 2-4 inches of accumulation. 

We still have a few questions on precipitation type for Sunday as the atmosphere warms up a little. A wintry mix should develop on Sunday, but it's very unlikely there will be ice accumulation. Right now, it looks like areas south of a line from Hutchinson to Emporia will have a chance to see a snow/sleet mix early, and then it could just be some flurries or drizzle in the afternoon.

Another system from the Southwest will kick out by Tuesday - more active weather

More active weather is expected next week. Monday is looking to be dry for most of the state now. But a much stronger system is expected into Tuesday. Highs will climb into the 50s with a chance for rain, but then Tuesday night into Wednesday, here comes the next batch of cold air. Rain will change to snow for a few hours going into Wednesday. We will concentrate on that after we get passed our weekend storm. Be safe if you are headed out on the roads!

Weekend snow update

Ready or not, the next round of snow is on the way to Kansas and the timing probably isn't good for weekend travelers... or those heading to College Gameday at Koch Arena. This will not be a major winter storm, but perhaps one of the heavier snows that some of us have had all winter long. Confidence is pretty high that most of the snow totals will be around 3 or 4 inches, but some areas up near KC and Topeka could get about 6 or 7 by the time it all moves out.

Accumulation from Friday night - Saturday

Our FutureTrack model has been consistent in producing some light snow in western Kansas Friday afternoon. Those areas covered in blue (image below) could see up to an inch by the end of the day Friday. But the more substantial round of snow will spread in from the southwest beginning late Friday night.

The area of snow will expand as it moves east to cover the rest of the state into Saturday morning. There should be at least some wind from the southeast, so there will be periods of blowing snow.

Once we get to Sunday, the air gets warm enough at roughly 5,000 feet that some of the precipitation will be rain around Wichita and areas to the south and east. However, the farther north that you go, there will still be some light snow, especially in the west and north of I-70. We will take a closer look at this after the new data comes in around 10 a.m. this morning. A stormy pattern is underway across the Plains, and it may last for at least another week. Here we go!

Time to start thinking about...

F5 Hesston tornado, March 13, 1990

Severe Weather Awareness Week, which is coming up next week. People often ask when severe weather season starts around here. The easy answer is April, May, and June, but if you've lived here for awhile, you know that March storms can sometimes bring tornadoes and blizzards all at the same time. And if you have a good memory, you might recall the Hesston/Goessel tornadoes occurred on March 13. So when the calendar flips to March here in less than a week, it's time to start preparing.

March 2nd-6th is a week set aside to allow us an opportunity to review and practice what we probably already know when it comes to safety. And even though it may seem redundant to have this designated week every year, I don't think you can ever be too prepared for what may show up later this spring. The statewide tornado drill will take place on Tuesday at 1:30 p.m. (assuming the weather is clear and quiet that day)

Monday's topic: Severe weather preparedness
Tuesday's topic: Tornado hazards
Wednesday's topic: Flash flood hazards
Thursday's topic: Severe thunderstorm hazards
Friday's topic: Forms of warning reception

We are working hard to put together some special pieces that you'll see on the air next week (at 6 p.m.) and you'll also see a lot of facts and safety information on Facebook. We don't know exactly how bad the severe weather season will be yet. Truthfully, no matter what prediction we make for the upcoming season, if your house or car gets hit by one big hailstorm or tornado, you'd likely declare it a bad season.

Small sample of some of the Facebook material we are working on for next week

So while we get set to deal with more snow and cold, try to find some time in the next few weeks to talk over your safety plan with your family (especially if you have kids involved)  A little planning now can be a lifesaver if and when that day comes.

Not one, but two rounds of moisture this week

Bruce Renick - Charleston

How does Monday come around so fast?? Here we are at the start of another week and it's our last one in February. The way things are trending now, February will end on a stormy note with more moisture headed for Kansas. And there is a good chance March may come in a bit like a lion with a very active weather pattern across the central and western US.

The first system that will roll through central US should come through Wednesday night. The storm will latch on to some cold air in the northern Plains and drag it south, so the second half of this week will be quite cold once again. There is a chance for light snow Wednesday evening, but it shouldn't be much more than a light dusting to one inch for the area.

More Arctic air will slide into the area for the end of the week. Highs will be 20-30 degrees colder than normal by Friday (normal high is about 50 degrees for the last week of February)

The second storm system worth watching comes in Friday and for the weekend. There is a broad storm system opening up west of the Rockies, and this type of pattern forces us to keep chances for moisture in the forecast from Friday all the way into Sunday. Widespread, accumulating snow is certainly possible getting into the weekend. If you are not a huge fan of cold and snow, I can tell you that a south breeze should help to warm the temperatures (at least a little) by Sunday.

Ice, sunshine, snow - all expected this weekend

We are getting a lot of feedback on Facebook regarding this weekend storm. Thanks for being patient as we figure out how this will play out, but the forecast is holding up quite well. Even though Wichita may not get much snow, it is still a storm and there will likely be some icy spots on roads at different times through the weekend.

The first time period to be aware of will be Saturday morning with temperatures at or just below freezing. Elevated roads could be very slick, and anyone traveling northeast toward KC should be aware of a Winter Weather Advisory that's been issued. Sunshine will break through the clouds Saturday afternoon and temperatures will warm into the low 40s. Most roads Saturday afternoon will be just fine to travel on.

The next round of moisture will move through Colorado and western Kansas into Saturday night. Accumulations will be most significant west of a line from Goodland to Garden City. Those areas could see 4 inches of snow or more. Travel into Colorado Saturday evening and Sunday will be almost impossible. 

Bitter cold temperatures will slide south into Sunday, and most of our highs will be in the teens and 20s. Be safe this weekend. 

Weekend storm update

We still have a storm on the way for the weekend and while there have been some slight changes, the forecast for the weekend won't look or sound that much different. There are several challenges when it comes to forecasting a winter storm, and we dedicate so much time to digging through all of the data. Bottom line here is that travel may not be much of a problem Saturday morning, but conditions will likely go downhill late Saturday afternoon and into the night (especially in western Kansas

The storm is just now forming up in southwestern Canada and will begin to influence our weather on Friday. We will likely start with some sun Friday morning, but clouds will advance to the north going into the afternoon. Drizzle or light rain will develop after dark.

Saturday will start with rain and drizzle for much of the state. I think sleet or snow will be possible in northwest Kansas in the morning. Then we will watch for the rain/snow line to move south late in the day and into Saturday evening.

The only slight change is that I think more of western Kansas will have a chance of heavier snow, with light amounts still expected central and east. Basically, west of a line from Hays to Dodge City, chances are increasing for about 4 inches of snow or more. I think widespread 1-3 inch amounts seem reasonable for much of central and south central Kansas. It doesn't look like a historic snow event, but the timing of storm will likely make driving tough for the weekend.

Bitter cold will slide in behind the snowfall, so for a couple of days (Sunday and Monday) we should expect highs in the teens and 20s. It is still February after all.

Next storm and the potential track/snowfall

How bad will the weekend storm be? How much snow will we get? Should I cancel my weekend plans? Those are three most popular questions coming up on Facebook and Twitter with our weekend forecast calling for snow. I'm posting an early model projection for snow so you can get a sense for what may be on the way. Keep in mind (and I think we say this all the time when forecasting snow with big storms) the track will determine where the heavier stuff goes. Don't focus on the exact numbers... but use this as a guide to where the heaviest could end up.

Right now, it's looks like the heaviest will end up in western Kansas where the snow begins earlier in the day Saturday. There's no doubt this storm will have an ample supply of moisture to work with, but figuring out how much will fall as rain and how much will be snow should get worked out in the next few days.

Potential track of the storm this weekend

Storm setup

Forecast models have the storm track going from around Amarillo Saturday morning to south of OKC by Saturday evening, and then lifting northeast by Sunday. A second area of light snow may develop going into Sunday morning, which could produce some more light accumulations. 

The heavy snow in Boston has been making news now for weeks. A high resolution satellite captured the most recent departing storm earlier this week. Interesting to see the texture of the clouds as the entire storm pulls away from the coast. I put some arrows on here to help illustrate what is going on in the clouds with respect to the wind. The comma shape to the satellite indicates the swirling winds around the low pressure center. The blotchy look to the cloud texture just south of the center of the storm is because of the VERY cold air aloft (usually 5,000-15,000 feet above the surface)

Snowfall checkup - next storm on the horizon

We are down to just about a month left in winter and much of the state continues with below normal snowfall for this point in the season. I think all of our snow went to Boston this year. There will still be some opportunities for snow between now and the beginning of March, so let's watch the storm track closely to see what happens around here.

There is another storm in the works for the weekend and it should have a little more moisture to work with than the previous storm. However, recent computer model runs have diminished the overall amounts of snow that Kansas could receive. The storm hasn't even formed yet, so there will likely be more changes in the data that we analyze, but it doesn't look to be as heavy as it did a few days ago.

The track of the storm is key, and if it moves across northern Oklahoma, that would put Kansas in the cross hairs for the heavier amounts. Once the storm forms Thursday, we will be getting a much better idea of how this will play out for our area. Details to come!!

Major snows east - no record highs this week

Our latest storm system is on the way out, but it didn't produce any amount of snow that would compare to what Boston and Massachusetts received this weekend. Snow blowers can't even throw the snow high enough to get it off the sidewalks and away from businesses. It might be the middle of summer before some of the piles melt as Boston is experiencing the third snowiest winter on record.

The pattern will continue to favor colder than average temperatures across the eastern half of the country. We won't have any record high temperatures like last week. And while it may be cold here, Kansas will be on the edge of the bitter Arctic air that will continue to surge into the deep South. And there could be another fairly significant storm in the works for next weekend, so check back for more updates as the week continues.

While all of this is going on, we are busy preparing for the upcoming severe weather season. The National Weather Service is conducting storm spotter and safety meetings across the state. Here is the list for this week.

They are free and open to anyone that wants to learn. Storm Team 12 is busy working on informational pieces for Severe Weather Awareness Week that is coming up the first week of March.

Weekend cold... chances for snow looming

After a brief warm up Friday, colder air is set to return throughout the weekend and Sunday will be the coldest day over the weekend. Highs are expected to be in the 20s and low 30s.

Cambridge, MA

Snow forecast for the Northeast this weekend

While we focus on the weather around here, you can't help but feel sorry for the residents in Boston, where a blizzard watch is in effect and there is a possibility of another 8-10 inches of snow. Personally, snow doesn't bother me that much, but I don't know how I'd feel with 50-60 inches on the ground and more coming. I'm sure they are counting the hours to spring in the Northeast.

A storm will be brewing late in the weekend and early next week. Confidence is pretty high that this will not be much of a snow maker in Kansas because of the path the storm is likely to take. When the system comes right over the Rockies, the opportunity for it to tap the Gulf of Mexico moisture is limited, so I wouldn't worry to much about significant snowfall Monday or Tuesday next week.

Forecast models (compared to yesterdays blog entry) continue to show limited amounts of snow for Kansas. Where it could be a little heavier is to our south in parts of Oklahoma.

There will be a cold snap coming early in the week too. Temperatures will likely fall back below normal (at least briefly) Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day when highs will only be in the 20s and low 30s. It's still winter and I know there will be some grumbling about this forecast. But if you don't like winter weather, be glad we don't live in Boston AND around here, the bitter cold won't last for too long.

A cure for spring fever ... bitter cold AND snow

Any spring fever that you may be feeling recently is about to get wiped out with some much colder air AND a chance for measurable snow. I know there will be mixed feelings about this forecast. I still have a bunch of teachers and students begging for a snow day, so we will see if this next storm can get the job done. 

In the meantime, there will continue to be more ups and downs in our afternoon temperatures the next few days. Today, it just so happens that most of you will have a chilly day with highs in the 30s and 40s. If you are in far western Kansas, you'll have a chance of seeing 50. Friday will be mild with 50s and 60s to begin the weekend. After that, get ready for things to turn cold, and then MUCH colder by the start of next week.

There are two different rounds of snow possible for our area. The first could move through early Monday and produce some light accumulations (likely under 2 inches). The second, more significant round of snow, should be coming through Monday night and into Tuesday. The exact track of the storm is still very much uncertain, but there is a chance for it to produce measurable snow. Forecast models do differ on how much we will get, so let's see how they change in the next few days. One forecast has the heavier amounts to the south, while the other, keeps most of the heavy snow along and east of the Flint Hills. Snow forecasting (in my opinion) is the hardest thing we have to figure out. So many key factors to take into consideration, and just the slightest change can make all the difference. 

Bitter cold, with highs in the teens and low 20s can be expected by next Tuesday. Maybe not what you wanted to hear, but we all know that it's February and winter isn't over yet.

Saying goodbye can be very tough sometimes

We've had so much warm weather recently that flowers are beginning to pop out of the ground and trees are even showing some signs of life again. While exciting, we realize that there is still a lot of February left yet and if the flowering trees get too far along, a bitter cold snap in early March will be the end of the colorful blossoms.

Ashley Carson - from Hutch (taken Tuesday)

Several cold fronts will be coming through Kansas in the next 5-7 days, ending our vacation from winter. And while a few of the days between now and early next week look a little chilly, bitter cold is building up and ready to move back into Kansas by Tuesday (Feb. 17) There is even a chance we could see some rain and snow (accumulations possible) when the cold air gets here too. Forecast models bring the temperatures back down into the 20s (for highs) as we move toward the middle of next week.So while the 60s and 70s have been really nice, winter isn't over yet and we are about to get a full dose of it next week.

Tuesday and Wednesday look much colder regionwide

Winter is coming down to the home stretch and while some parts of Kansas have had near normal snowfall, Goodland is running well below average. Keep in mind, average snowfall is much higher in northwest Kansas than everywhere else. Wichita averages about 15 inches each winter, Dodge City around 20, and Goodland is actually 35-40 inches. Some of you have been asking how much more snow we will get this winter and I can't imagine it would be very much, but March storms have a history of offering up some surprises. We will see!!