Rain totals, more coming & hurricane outlook 2015

                                              

More rain in places that just don't need any more right now. Here are the totals through 7 a.m. Thursday:

Dodge City: 1.16"

Salina: 0.89"

Garden City: 0.76"

Hutch: 0.73"

Wichita: 0.51"

Jabara Airport: 0.40"

Great Bend: 0.33"

Winfield: 0.21"

Elkhart: 0.12"

Liberal: 0.05"

Medicine Lodge: 0.04"

Goodland: 0.03"

Russell: 0.03"

Newton: 0.02"

Hays: 0.01"

More rain is coming and there could be at least two more rounds of heavy rainfall between now and Saturday morning. One round is coming through Thursday night and early Friday. Then with a cold front coming through Friday afternoon and evening, we can expect more rain and storms to develop. The chance for severe weather should drop off considerably after today (Thursday)

The official 2015 hurricane forecast came out Wednesday. It's calling for another very quiet season across the Atlantic and it's mainly tied to the El Nino influence. How does El Nino keep the hurricanes at bay? First, let's recap what El Nino is. It's the unseasonably warm water off the equator in the Pacific Ocean, and this warm water does have some impact on the weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. This phenomenon has resulted in some very heavy rains across the central and southern Plains, and now moving into hurricane season, will hopefully work to keep the hurricanes away.

El Nino has a tendency to increase the wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction as you move higher in the sky. Stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere proves to be detrimental to hurricane formation. Across the Atlantic Basin, forecasts are calling for more wind aloft, which should keep the number of tropical systems at a minimum. The last major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to hit the US was Wilma back in October of 2005.

Wet and stormy May about to transition

Jamie Blanton - El Dorado hail Tuesday evening

Breah Allmon - McPherson sunset (Tuesday)

What a month this has been with storm after storm, flooding, tornadoes, hail, etc. Wichita has had measurable rain on 15 of the 26 days in May (so far) with Dodge City having 13 wet days out of the 26.

The stormy pattern continues for the rest of the week. The active southwest branch of the jet stream has been pushing storm system after storm system across the central and southern US. Part of this is tied in with El Nino. The drought has been erased for north central and eastern Kansas, but the west continues with moderate drought. 

Wed-Fri: Chances for showers and storms will continue across Kansas with some pockets of heavy rainfall. Some severe weather is possible on an isolated basis, especially across western Kansas. 

Change coming!!! Once we get to the weekend, a cold front will push through and shove the moisture and rain to the south and east. It's still not looking too good for flood ravaged areas of Oklahoma and Texas, but in Kansas, conditions will be drying out. The weather pattern will also change and go from a southwest storm track back to an area of high pressure over the Rockies. So the way things are looking, the weekend and most of next week should be storm free. We might have a few spotty storms into western Kansas around midweek, but the widespread, heavy rains look to hold off for awhile.

Rainfall amounts (ending at 7 a.m. Tuesday)

So much of the state is dealing with flooding, but this picture sent to me shows where there is room for more rain... Wilson Lake. Much of the state could benefit from 3 or 4 weeks of dry weather, but the pattern is relentless and more rain is on the way for Wednesday (across the west) and just about anywhere heading into Thursday and Friday.

Wilson Lake - courtesy Don Panzer

Hutch: 0.77"
Wichita: 0.56"
Salina: 0.35"
Great Bend: 0.32"
Jabara Airport: 0.31"
Coffeyville: 0.25"
Newton: 0.22"
Winfield: 0.07"
Concordia: 0.11"
Dodge City: 0.03"
Russell: 0.01"

Rainfall totals, more rain coming, and a skywatcher's guide

courtesy Glenna Alm - Wilson Lake

More rain in Kansas over the last 24 hours. Here are the totals:

Goodland: 1.53"

Medicine Lodge: 1.47"

Garden City: 1.46"

Dodge City: 1.29"

Hays: 1.12"

Newton: 0.97"

Elkhart: 0.92"

Liberal: 0.84"

Hill City: 0.78"

Wichita: 0.72"

Winfield: 0.64"

Russell: 0.62"

Jabara Airport: 0.56"

Salina: 0.51"

Great Bend: 0.42"

Smith Center: 0.32"

Dodge City has now had enough rain to push it into the 2nd wettest May since 2000 and the wettest since 2001. We still have 10 days to go before the end of the month AND more rain is coming.

The pattern continues to look stormy heading into the holiday weekend. The system is going to move across the Plains in different waves, and that's why the chances for storms will linger over 3-4 different days. Severe storms are possible, but it's looking less likely that they will be all that widespread. That being said, if you are planning to camp this weekend, make sure you have a way of getting weather information in the event we do have some severe storms. This active pattern will continue beyond the Memorial Day weekend. We will be looking at more rain chances through the end of the month. MAYBE... a pattern change will be coming in early June. We will be checking for any signs of change.

If you enjoy looking up at the sky, here is a guide at what you would be looking at during dusk. We will just have to hope the clouds clear for awhile. 

May rains making history... and more arriving

From Derby in the Tallgrass area

We are experiencing a May that we haven't had in quite some time here in Kansas. Storm system after storm system is producing big rains in Kansas and in looking at recent records, this one will be the wettest in awhile. I'll post the stats for Wichita and Dodge City and let you take a look. Pretty amazing to see how fast things have turned around for us in Kansas, even though the drought isn't completely over yet.

Wichita:                                               Dodge City:
2015: 7.46"                                           2015: 3.62"
2014: 4.06"                                            2014: 1.67"
2013: 5.42"                                            2013: 0.91"
2012: 2.10"                                            2012: 0.61"
2011: 2.45"                                            2011: 0.68"
2010: 6.47"                                            2010: 4.04"
2009: 2.94"                                            2009: 1.29"
2008: 13.14"                                          2008: 3.88"
2007: 4.11"                                            2007:  2.35"
2006: 6.76"                                            2006: 3.94"
2005: 1.86"                                            2005:  2.04"
2004: 3.77"                                            2004:  0.25"
2003: 2.99"                                            2003:  2.49"
2002: 5.70"                                            2002:  1.35"
2001: 3.12"                                            2001:  7.84"
2000: 3.00"                                            2000:  1.82"

We have just under two weeks to go and with this stormy pattern continuing, there's little doubt that Dodge City can get over the 4 inch rainfall mark, which would make it the wettest in about 15 years. Crazy!

Forecast models continue to show .50-1" amounts for most of Kansas with this Tuesday/Wednesday storm system. For many areas, it won't be a gully washer, but the areas that had flooding over the weekend will have to keep an eye on things.

The second storm of the week will arrive into Friday and Saturday. A few strong storms are possible Friday afternoon, but the better chance for severe storms will come Saturday. It will be our third weekend in a row with a severe weather chance. Details to come as the week continues.

Too much rain for some and more coming

Near 21st North and 135th West (courtesy Travis Hettenbach)

Just over half way through the month of May and this has been a wet and stormy month for our area. The drought has had a significant setback with round after round of rainfall and it's not done yet. In the next 7-8 days, two different storm systems will cross the area and bring chances for moisture back to Kansas. 

Storm System #1

The first rounds of moisture for this week will arrive Tuesday (mainly west) and then spread east into Tuesday night. The atmosphere will be cool enough that we may not even have thunderstorms; just some rain showers. Amounts of rain should fall between 0.25"-0.50" for most of the state. 

Storm System #2

Another system will kick out of southern California and into the Plains come Friday/Saturday. This one will have a better chance of producing thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather. The highest chance for hail and wind producing storms will come Saturday across the area. It will also be windy, which may not make it much fun for those boating at area lakes.

Rainfall totals and severe chances Saturday

Rainfall totals ending at 7 a.m. Thursday:
Salina: 1.19"
Dodge City: 0.93"
Wichita Eisenhower: 0.89"
Concordia: 0.89"
Newton: 0.86"
Smith Center: 0.79"
Emporia: 0.71"
Jabara Airport: 0.62"
Russell: 0.61"
Liberal: 0.41"
Great Bend: 0.41"
Winfield: 0.38"
Goodland: 0.37"
Hill City: 0.36"
Medicine Lodge: 0.32"
Elkhart: 0.27"
Pratt: 0.19"
Garden City: 0.18"

The setup going into the weekend will favor scattered storms from southwest into central Kansas for Friday night - Saturday morning. If you recall last weekend, we had storms that moved across most of the state early Saturday. That actually helped to delay the onset of the afternoon storms and reduce the overall severe potential.

Take a look at our Future Track model for Saturday morning. It is once again showing some scattered storms into Saturday morning (which will likely not be severe). So the question will be, how fast do those storms move out before the afternoon ones develop? It's looking more like the storms Saturday afternoon will be hail and wind producers, but considering the time of year and the wind speeds higher up in the atmosphere, an isolated tornado will remain possible. Once the storms fire up, they will move east at roughly 30 to 40 mph. Still looks like all of the storms will be gone by Sunday with dry weather to finish off the weekend.

First rain... then the severe chance

Flooding in Krum, TX

More rain is on the way to much of the central and southern Plains. Flooding continues to be a huge problem in parts of Oklahoma and Texas. The weather pattern continues to send us storm after storm. Even if the rain has interfered with some of your spring activities, you have to admit, it's much nicer having the rain than chasing wild fires and watching the grass go brown in early spring.

So we have two storm systems coming through over the next 8-9 days. The first one coming through today isn't anything alarming. We will get more rain and we could have a few thunderstorms, but there certainly won't be severe storms. As far as rainfall amounts go, there will be a considerable drop off in the amounts the farther west that you go. I would expect areas west of Hays to Dodge City to get less than .50", but they will be much higher going east. Some areas could get over an inch.

The big system we are watching for the weekend will setup over the Southwest into Friday. This will put Kansas in a favorable spot for isolated storms into Friday evening. Those will move east and eventually weaken later in the night.

This will be our second weekend in a row with a threat of bad weather, which isn't such great news for graduations. As we saw last weekend, several things have to be taken into consideration and if even one thing is off, it can mess with the forecast. It's looking like we will have morning rain and some storms (like last Saturday), and that may reduce some of the severe potential during the afternoon. If the timing holds up, anytime after 3 or 4 p.m., we could see storms firing up in central Kansas and then quickly moving east. Storms will likely move at 30-40 mph. It's looking like hail and wind will be the primary mode of severe storms, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Weekend storm wrap, drought update, and how much more rain to expect

Courtesy Kerry Hobbick (1 mile east of Voda)

courtesy Kerry Hobbick

courtesy Kerry Hobbick

courtesy Terri Burkhart (near Dodge City)

barn destroyed Saturday night 7 miles NW of Selden (Decatur co.) courtesy Tammy Shaw

The beginning of May has offered up some beneficial rains, and several areas of the state are seeing the impacts with lake and pond levels rising. Creeks and streams are running some water again. May is one of our wetter months on average, so we have to be grateful for the moisture. The more rains we get now, the less likely it will be to have a scorching summer. Looking at the numbers, Wichita, Dodge City, and Salina continue to show rainfall deficits. It's nothing that can't be made up in one good storm system. Goodland is living right with a rainfall surplus of more than 3 inches. Not included in the graphic: Hays (May rainfall: 1.85" /  +1.03")  (Year so far: 4.07" / -1.99")

Some of you have asked about the drought. Officially, it does continue, but it's had a serious dent put into it by the stormy pattern that we've been in for a few weeks now. We will need a continuation of the rainfall to wipe it out altogether, but little by little, we are working on it.

We do have more rain coming this week. Exactly how much remains to be seen, but I would expect about another .50" is possible for Wednesday evening through Thursday for most of Kansas. There won't be severe storms Wednesday night or Thursday. It looks like just the garden variety showers and storms at this point. 

A stronger storm system will be moving toward Kansas for the upcoming weekend. That's when we could see some severe storms once again along with chances for heavier rainfall. Details to come this week.

How bad will the storms be?

Courtesy Cameron Lane - near Salina on Thursday

By now, you've probably read or heard several different reports about the upcoming severe weather events going into the weekend. We know this is a busy time of year for graduations. So if you have something like that planned for Saturday (and maybe Sunday too), you should know what's likely to happen.

Let's focus on Friday first. The stationary front has moved a little farther south, and as of this writing, looks to remain south in Oklahoma. That will put the highest chances for severe storms in Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening. I do think we will see showers and storms in Kansas Friday evening, but for now, it looks like many of them will not be severe storms. Heavy rainfall will be a concern though, especially in areas that have had heavy rainfall this week. There is a chance for some tornadoes today in western Oklahoma. 

Saturday: A much more significant severe weather event may unfold during the afternoon and early evening hours. The reason Saturday has a lot of potential is because there is a huge low pressure coming in from the west and much stronger winds throughout the atmosphere. It takes the right amount of wind and differing directions of wind to make a tornado. We think the setup Saturday will have some of those ingredients. In addition, very large hail and damaging winds can be expected over the area too. Storms should develop after 1 or 2 p.m. across central and western Kansas. Once the storms form, they will begin moving east or northeast. If you remember April 14, 2012 (when we had a Saturday full of tornadoes and Oaklawn was hit) the setup looks similar. It's not a guarantee that we will have tornadoes, but there is definitely a lot of potential in Saturdays storm setup.

Once we get to Mother's Day, the main severe weather will be east of the Flint Hills. Storms will move east rather quickly and out of Kansas in time for quiet weather by Sunday evening.

Stick with us through the weekend for all the latest weather updates. We have a rather beefy plan in place to keep you updated on storms.

24 Hour Rainfall, severe weather is likely soon, & how much more rain?

We've made it to Wednesday and after a brief break from severe storms, the chance will return for some later today. Widespread severe storms are unlikely, but some quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph look possible over central and northern Kansas. Storms will likely move east or northeast shortly after they develop around 4 or 5 p.m.

Much of the state will likely have some dry weather heading into Wednesday night as we end up between storm systems.

The next feature we watch is a cold front that will stall from southwest into central and eastern Kansas for Thursday evening. This will provide the focus for some pockets of more heavy rainfall (good news for some but probably too much for others)

The stalled front will likely sag a little more to the south for Friday, but the potential for heavy rainfall should continue over at least the southern part of Kansas into the night.

Saturday is shaping up to be a stormy day across most of Kansas. Storms will develop in western Kansas after 2 or 3 p.m. and then begin the journey east. Hail, wind, even a few tornadoes will be possible in the setup for Saturday afternoon. In addition, heavy rainfa
ll will accompany most of the storms, which will cause more concerns for flooded roads and low lying areas. You can see, the forecast models between now and early Sunday show how widespread the heavy rain will be. Remember, if you come to a flooded road, turn around and find a different route.

Rainfall totals ending at 7 a.m.:

21st & 159th East (Wichita): 2"

Jabara Airport: 1.63"

Winfield: 1.56"

Eisenhower National: 1.28"

Newton: 1.14"

Liberal: 1.09"

Topeka: 0.64"

Garden City: 0.58"

Medicine Lodge: 0.53"

Goodland: 0.50"

McPherson: 0.48"

Elkhart: 0.45"

Hutch: 0.38"

Dodge City: 0.37"

Pratt: 0.30"

Salina: 0.25"

Smith Center: 0.12"

Concordia: 0.09"

Russell: 0.06"

Rainfall amounts and a look at what's to come!

6 miles NE of Salina into Ottawa county

Good morning everyone. Here are some rainfall amounts through 7 a.m. Tuesday (5/5/15)

6 miles N of I-70 near Salina - 4.25"

Manhattan - 4.22"

4 miles south of Great Bend - 4"

Geneseo - 3.50"

Salina - 1.87"

Great Bend - 1.24"

Garden City - 1.11"

Russell - 0.83"

Liberal - 0.57"

Concordia - 0.54"

Dodge City - 0.52"

Elkhart - 0.34"

Topeka - 0.26'

Hill City - 0.11"

Goodland - 0.02"

The main focus for additional rain through Tuesday afternoon will be west of a Dodge City to Hays line. Storms will not be severe, but some pockets of brief heavy downpours are likely.

Heading into Tuesday night, the focus for additional rain will spread east to include the rest of Kansas. Severe weather isn't likely, but our main concern will center around heavy rainfall in places that just had a bunch Monday night. This will be the kind of rain that will run some water into ponds and lakes.

Widely scattered storms will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening across central and eastern Kansas. Some of the storms will produce hail and high winds, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.

I expect widespread heavy rains to cover southwest, central, and eastern Kansas come Thursday AND Friday nights. Once again, the severe weather potential may be rather low (in terms of hail and high winds) but we will have to closely monitor for flooding. Just doesn't seem right that we would have a flooding concern when it's been so dry, but this will continue to be a stormy pattern with rain coming through about every 18-24 hours. And the storm chances will continue into the weekend. A very large storm system will kick out across the Plains into Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a strong possibility for severe storms heading into Saturday evening in Kansas. All modes of severe weather may be possible, so stay tuned for additional updates. We don't see things drying out and calming down until Mother's Day.