How bad will the storms be?

Courtesy Cameron Lane - near Salina on Thursday

By now, you've probably read or heard several different reports about the upcoming severe weather events going into the weekend. We know this is a busy time of year for graduations. So if you have something like that planned for Saturday (and maybe Sunday too), you should know what's likely to happen.

Let's focus on Friday first. The stationary front has moved a little farther south, and as of this writing, looks to remain south in Oklahoma. That will put the highest chances for severe storms in Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening. I do think we will see showers and storms in Kansas Friday evening, but for now, it looks like many of them will not be severe storms. Heavy rainfall will be a concern though, especially in areas that have had heavy rainfall this week. There is a chance for some tornadoes today in western Oklahoma. 

Saturday: A much more significant severe weather event may unfold during the afternoon and early evening hours. The reason Saturday has a lot of potential is because there is a huge low pressure coming in from the west and much stronger winds throughout the atmosphere. It takes the right amount of wind and differing directions of wind to make a tornado. We think the setup Saturday will have some of those ingredients. In addition, very large hail and damaging winds can be expected over the area too. Storms should develop after 1 or 2 p.m. across central and western Kansas. Once the storms form, they will begin moving east or northeast. If you remember April 14, 2012 (when we had a Saturday full of tornadoes and Oaklawn was hit) the setup looks similar. It's not a guarantee that we will have tornadoes, but there is definitely a lot of potential in Saturdays storm setup.

Once we get to Mother's Day, the main severe weather will be east of the Flint Hills. Storms will move east rather quickly and out of Kansas in time for quiet weather by Sunday evening.

Stick with us through the weekend for all the latest weather updates. We have a rather beefy plan in place to keep you updated on storms.