Chances for rain increasing next week.

Where does the time go? Now into the month of May and just getting to the peak of severe weather season. I like to think of the first 10-15 days of May as being the halfway point, and usually notorious for severe weather across the Plains.

The recent rainfall has been enough to get the grass growing and replenish some of the sub-soil moisture, but some runoff is still needed to fill farm ponds, creeks, and area lakes. It's possible the rain next week could be heavy enough to cause some runoff, but we won't get greedy just yet. So let's dive into the setup for next week. There could be (and likely will be) several rounds of storms moving through the area.

Forecast model for rain from Sunday - Thursday (May 7)

The Setup:

A front will stall over Kansas for Monday into Tuesday. At the same time, Gulf of Mexico moisture will be pushing north into the Plains. So here's a breakdown of what I think will happen:
Monday A.M.: Light rain showers fading over central and eastern Kansas
Monday Eve/Night: Scattered showers and storms could develop about anywhere, but it will be mostly likely from western Kansas into central and northern Kansas where the front will be located
Tuesday A.M.: Rain begins to dry up, especially in the west and across the north
Tuesday Night: More scattered storms in far western Kansas AND storms developing down across Oklahoma will move north and impact southern Kansas late in the night
Wednesday: Scattered storms likely over central and eastern Kansas

There will be some risk of severe storms, but it's not looking likely for widespread wind and hail.