Rain today...Dry Halloween... Another storm brewing

Rain has arrived! We will continue to watch the moisture move across the Plains today. Most of Kansas will get 0.25"-0.50", but because the core of the storm system is tracking east, the heavier amounts will stay down across Oklahoma and Texas. 

Behind this latest round of rain will come a big warming trend for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. The next storm starts to develop on the west coast early next week, and it will result in windy, warm weather for much of the area. 

Right now, timing of the next storm system will be Thursday/Friday. And it will be bringing some colder air with it too. It doesn't look like any snow, but temperatures will be turning colder by Friday with highs in the 40s and 50s, and more lows dropping below freezing. 

Freeze warning & more stormy weather coming

A hard freeze is setting up for northwest Kansas going into Thursday morning. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will be coming down from the north into the night and temperatures will likely fall into the 20s for Goodland, Colby, maybe even as far south as Hays. Much of the state will see lows in the 30s. Be prepared for frost, even in areas that aren't in an advisory. Don't forget to disconnect the garden hoses too. As a kid, I had to learn this the hard way when our outdoor faucet froze and busted.

We are tracking another storm that is headed into Kansas for the end of the week.

There are two things that look very likely:
1) Heavier rains will stay south of Kansas. Oklahoma and Texas will once again catch the brunt of the storm with rain amounts over an inch (even some places will get 2 or 3 inches)
2) Any rain that we get at the end of the week will be over with by Halloween

The stormy pattern will continue for awhile longer. Another very large storm system will be developing in the western US early next week. It's WAY too early to see when it will get here and what it may do. The way things are going... it won't do much except create a lot of wind. I'll update you when I know more.

Close call for World Series Game 1 - next big system develops

courtesy KMBC

Game 1 of the World Series gets underway Tuesday evening and it's going to be a close call on rain. It will likely rain in Kansas City Tuesday morning and afternoon, but there is a system coming from the west that should shove most of the rain east of Kauffman Stadium in time for first pitch. The clouds will likely linger for most of the game, but the measurable (delay causing kind of rain) will be over. 

Where will the next storm system setup? This is going to dictate who gets the rain and who will be missed. The forecast models both indicate there will be a storm system to watch by Thursday/Friday/Halloween, but they don't agree on where it will set up. 

One model keeps most of the heavier rainfall to the south of Kansas, with just a few showers passing through on Friday.

Other computer models are holding the rain back until later in the weekend. So the uncertainty is what keeps us from truly knowing what the weather will be like for Halloween. 

Major Pacific hurricane - pattern calming for now

Hurricane Patricia from space - Winds are near 200 mph

It's the strongest hurricane in the eastern north Pacific on record and it will make landfall later today (Friday). It will end up just south of Puerto Vallarta and likely have winds around 200 mph. That is a very strong Category 5. Once it runs into the mountains over Mexico, it will die very quickly, but the leftover moisture will keep moving northeast and bring major flooding to Texas this weekend. There could be up to 15 inches of rain just north of Houston. 

Much of central and eastern Kansas was missed by the rain on Thursday, so now the question becomes when will we see the next chance. 

This weekend:

The pattern looks fairly quiet around Kansas both Saturday and Sunday. We will have some cool, typical fall weather around for the weekend, but no chance for any rain. 

Early next week:

An approaching storm system coming in for Tuesday should bring some scattered rain back to the area, but it doesn't look like much. The question will be, how much moisture does Patricia rob as the leftover system moves across the southeastern US. So we can't get overly excited about the system yet, but that's the next chance for us to see rain. Have a wonderful weekend. 

Rain arrives & possible frost looming next week

This has been a very warm month of October and with just 10 days left, I did some checking on the average temperature. Despite the fact that we've had some record highs and a handful of days in the 90s, our average high of 65.5 doesn't even crack the top 15 warmest Octobers on record. The cooler night temperatures have helped to offset the very warm, afternoon highs. Although we expect highs to stay near or slightly above normal for another 4 or 5 days, it's not going to be enough to boost the average much. 

We will come back to temperatures in just a second, but in the short term, get ready for rain. A large storm system is moving in from the southwest. Satellite images show the core of the storm still over the Southwest. Intense areas of upward motion (what you need to have in order to get rain) is still off to our west, but it's coming this way. The atmosphere is loading up with moisture and we are all set to get a nice soaking from now to early Friday. It's snowing above 9,000 feet in the mountains. There's no chance any of our rain in Kansas will turn to snow. It's WAY too warm for that.

Snowing at Wolf Creek Pass - Colorado

Next week, a much stronger cold front will plow through on Tuesday. That particular front is coming from Canada, so a quick shot of colder air may dive in for the middle of the week. Frosty temperatures are certainly possible early Wednesday morning. It doesn't look like a hard freeze at this time, but many areas will likely fall into the 30s for lows during the middle of the week. Time to start thinking about draining garden hoses and getting our homes ready for winter. 

MONDAY TEMPERATURES

WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES

The weather pattern continues to look rather active for the next 10-15 days, so keep checking back in to see what it will mean for Kansas as we move into November. October has definitely gone by quickly.

Big changes this week - rain finally coming!

Mexico, NY - courtesy Maria Molina

courtesy Becky Elliott - Clearfield, PA

The weather is definitely in transition and it started over the weekend. Some of the first snows of the season showed up in the northeast and there were reports of accumulations in Pennsylvania and upstate New York. Mexico, NY had 9 inches of the white stuff. It's not unusual considering it's mid October. Even Goodland averages a little more than 2 inches of snow in October, but we don't see anything like that on the horizon.

Our weather pattern looks so much different this week and it's about time. The numbers aren't exactly earth shattering, but since September 1st, rainfall has been spotty at best.

Wichita: 2.80" (normal is 4.86")

Salina: 1.73" (normal is 4.09")

Dodge City: 1.68" (normal 2.72")

Goodland: 1.41" (normal 2.06")

(click on any image to make it larger)

One particular satellite image (called water vapor) shows a nice storm over the western US and we think it will latch on to some rich, deep Gulf of Mexico moisture by mid-late week. We haven't had a moisture connection quite like this in a long time, so the setup (at least on paper and computer) looks favorable for rain and isolated storms. There won't be any snow with this particular storm system.

GFS model

European model

One forecast model shows widespread 1-3 inch amounts, while the other has a little less. Regardless of which set of data is right, we stand a very good chance for beneficial moisture this week.

Interestingly enough, all of the cold air is still locked way up north in Canada. There won't be any unusual cold snaps for awhile (maybe 8-10 days or longer) and the threat of a widespread, hard freeze continues to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

Another winter forecast released

First frost of the season courtesy @gracy69epixnet

On Thursday, we heard from the Climate Prediction Center on their outlook for the winter months. No real surprises in what they are thinking considering the strong El Nino phenomenon that has setup in the Pacific. We are still looking at other information and trying to pin down a more precise forecast for Kansas, and we will release it in November. The pattern up to now has been warm and dry, but within the next few weeks, it will be turning more active with increasing chances for moisture.

Precipitation:
A wetter than normal winter across the southern tier of the US with a more active southern branch of the jet stream.

Temperatures:
Cooler than normal across the south (where more moisture is expected to fall), while the northern tier of the US is expected to be warmer than normal. Kansas falls into the "equal chances" of above or below normal temperatures.

There are a bunch of winter forecasts out there on the internet, so be sure to check the source before putting much value in what you are seeing/reading.  Have a great weekend.

El Nino update & a pattern change coming

Thanks for taking time to check out the blog and for your interest in Kansas weather. We continue to hear a great deal about El Nino. Questions I get asked are 1) How bad will it be this winter and 2) When will El Nino start impacting the weather? 

You can see the comparison being made between the 1997/98 El Nino and the current setup. (Click on any image to make it larger) We discussed this in an earlier blog post, but the winter of 97/98 was a snowy one for a big part of the state. The warmer water has an impact on the sea surface heights, which will in turn have a strong influence on the weather patterns in the upper atmosphere. And there is still a chance this thing will get stronger before it starts to weaken in early 2016. I would expect that within the next 30-40 days, we will start seeing the impact of El Nino on the pattern. Most long range predictions are calling for wet and stormy into the winter season, but so far, it's been anything but. We continue to watch and see if that will change. Some long range models are hinting at a changeover to a stormy pattern, but we need more time to study what's showing up before drawing conclusions. 

A strong cold front will push through Thursday and look at what it does for our temperatures Friday and Saturday. A big chunk of cold air will slide across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast this weekend. Some early flakes of snow are even possible (near the Great Lakes). This will be a dramatic change around Kansas, but that's just because it's been so warm thus far in October. 

Early next week, the pattern does change, and with the winds turning back to the west/southwest, our chances for moisture will return. Many areas need it. Since early September, there are areas that have been missed altogether, so the rain can't come soon enough. One system will come through over the weekend, but it will only bring some clouds. A second, more potent system, will arrive Monday/Tuesday with chances for rain and a few thunderstorms.

Stubborn pattern - change down the road

courtesy of Karen - from Ellis Co.

Welcome to Monday everyone. So far, the month of October has been rather uneventful for much of Kansas. We did see record high temperatures on Sunday with Hill City getting to 97. Unbelievable for the month of October, but definitely not unheard of. 

What is going on with this very dry, warm stretch of weather? The jet stream is a fast flow of wind aloft (roughly 30,000 feet and higher) that is moving at 80-100 mph and getting stronger at this time of the year. This fast flow of wind is coming down from the northern Plains and across the Great Lakes region. So the active storm track is staying well north of Kansas and there's no moisture around to help bring rain to Kansas. 

Our first cold front of the week has already moved through. So temperatures will be cooler today, but still above normal for mid October (72 would be considered average) A much stronger push of cooler air will be coming by Friday. Highs will be going below normal into the weekend, but once again, still looking dry!

The pattern begins to shift around over the weekend with our storm track becoming more west/southwesterly early next week. Although we don't have any big storm systems on the horizon, the possibility of rain looks to increase some during the 3rd full week of October. There could be a couple of systems coming through our area next week, but details aren't very clear right now. It doesn't look like snow or anything out of the ordinary, but updates will be coming.

Fall frost on hold - signs of a summer setup

First snows of the season at Loveland, CO - courtesy CBS Denver

October is a month where we start talking about frost or a hard freeze (sometimes, even snow). But if we don't see frost for another few weeks, is that out of line? Northwest Kansas averages a first fall frost/freeze within the first half of the month, while Dodge City typically sees it happen sometime in the middle of the month. Wichita averages a fall frost/freeze around Halloween. Last year, our first sub-freezing low temperature didn't happen until the end of October around much of the state. A cold front is coming Thursday, but no threat of any frost heading into the weekend.

There should, should be some rain south of I-70 and east of Dodge City into Thursday evening. It may not be very much, but some .25-.50" amounts look possible, especially farther south and closer to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Severe storms are unlikely. The beginning of the Royals game Thursday evening could be wet with showers in the Kansas City area. 

The weather pattern will shift again over the weekend and we are going to see some summerlike weather return to Kansas by Sunday. Highs could get close to 90 in northwest Kansas. While record highs aren't necessarily likely, we will be running about 15 degrees warmer than normal. And unfortunately, with the jet stream so far north for much of next week, we don't have any chances for rain until (at the earliest) October 16th. So far, this has been a very dry fall. Some are asking "where is El Nino?" The fact of the matter is, that influence on the weather could still be weeks away. We can't jump to any conclusions about our winter weather based on what we are seeing right at this moment.

Historic rainfall numbers - our pattern shifting slightly

Courtesy Jim Berry - football field in South Carolina underwater

Historic rainfall has been falling over the Carolinas throughout the last 4 days. Charleston, South Carolina had over a third of it's yearly rainfall in less than 48 hours. What you have going on is a stalled storm over Georgia with a steady conveyor belt of moisture moving from the ocean right into South Carolina. This belt of rainfall has been relentless and with the tropical connection, it doesn't take long for flooding to happen. Conditions will start to improve Tuesday as the storm system finally gets out to sea.  Keep in mind, the major flooding is completely separate form Joaquin which continues to accelerate out to sea, passing near Bermuda. As it moves over cooler water, additional weakening is likely.

Setup for heavy rain in the southeast. Steady streams of moisture continue to move onshore

Rainfall amounts through October 4th

We have a couple storm systems of our own to watch, but it won't be anything like the rainfall they've had back east. There is a system over Las Vegas this morning, but it now looks like it will slip southeast to the US/Mexico border and not bring much (if any) rainfall to Kansas. We do have a front coming in on Thursday that should help develop scattered showers and storms. Rainfall amounts look like they will be .25" or less, but with a chance to have thunderstorms, we can always hope for a little more.

Temperatures will cool off later in the week with highs back around 70 by Friday. 

Rainfall needed and an October preview

sunrise Thursday morning - courtesy Terry White (over Hutch)

The month of September was a mainly dry month for much of Kansas. Where we need rain, the deficits continue to grow. There are some areas of central and western Kansas that have fallen 5 to 10 inches below normal for the year. I've highlighted rainfall stats for Russell, Wichita, and Dodge City. There is quite a variation in all of the locations too.

October is a month that can see some radical changes in the weather pattern, temperatures, precipitation, and even the type of precipitation. Our average highs will drop into the 60s during the middle of the month, and go even lower by Halloween. The days continue to grow shorter, and by the end of the month, we will be down about 70 minutes of daylight.

Most of us will experience frost in the next 30 days. On average, the northwest sees frost within the first 10-15 days of the month, while it's much later for south central and southeast Kansas. I don't see any sign of frost in the near future yet, but we know it's coming. Cold fronts are getting stronger and as soon as we see the first sign of frost, we will be sure to post it here on the blog. Have a great day!