Fall frost on hold - signs of a summer setup

First snows of the season at Loveland, CO - courtesy CBS Denver

October is a month where we start talking about frost or a hard freeze (sometimes, even snow). But if we don't see frost for another few weeks, is that out of line? Northwest Kansas averages a first fall frost/freeze within the first half of the month, while Dodge City typically sees it happen sometime in the middle of the month. Wichita averages a fall frost/freeze around Halloween. Last year, our first sub-freezing low temperature didn't happen until the end of October around much of the state. A cold front is coming Thursday, but no threat of any frost heading into the weekend.

There should, should be some rain south of I-70 and east of Dodge City into Thursday evening. It may not be very much, but some .25-.50" amounts look possible, especially farther south and closer to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Severe storms are unlikely. The beginning of the Royals game Thursday evening could be wet with showers in the Kansas City area. 

The weather pattern will shift again over the weekend and we are going to see some summerlike weather return to Kansas by Sunday. Highs could get close to 90 in northwest Kansas. While record highs aren't necessarily likely, we will be running about 15 degrees warmer than normal. And unfortunately, with the jet stream so far north for much of next week, we don't have any chances for rain until (at the earliest) October 16th. So far, this has been a very dry fall. Some are asking "where is El Nino?" The fact of the matter is, that influence on the weather could still be weeks away. We can't jump to any conclusions about our winter weather based on what we are seeing right at this moment.