Early March outlook

Meteorological spring begins on March 1st. If you needed a pick-me-up this week, maybe that will do it. Normal highs at the beginning of March are in the low to mid 50s and in just over a week, our sunset will be happening at 7:30 in the evening. I wanted to shed some light on what might be ahead in March.

Kansas will likely see cooler than normal weather for March. Why?

Two factors to consider: Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. When they go negative (and that's where we are now), we typically see March temperatures look like this:

Precipitation:

I hope I'm completely wrong, but March still looks dry for much of the state. Here's a snapshot of some of the data we are looking at in the storm center. The first half of March does not look promising for rain. Best chances for moisture continue to be across the east. If the models are correct, far eastern Kansas could get .50-1", but farther west, it drops very, very quickly.

Rainfall Today (Tuesday):

There is a chance for some rain in the eastern 1/3 of Kansas. It won't be much, but some thunder is possible and when it's over, amounts will likely end up between a Trace and .25". Most are going to end up well under .25".

Weekend storm & talk of drought

Another storm is going to move through the Plains this weekend with chances for rain and snow. This system is different from the ones earlier this week in the fact that it will have wind, and less in the way of freezing rain and sleet.

Here's the track the storm will take:

Heaviest snow is going to go north of Kansas, into Nebraska and Iowa. It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see some areas get a foot of snow. But this is a fast moving storm and the wind with it will be pretty gusty. So a few hours of blizzard like conditions will set in.

Next week:

The chance for rain on Wednesday will be a bit of a close call, and maybe not the most promising storm. We expect a front to move through the area, which should help to trigger a few showers and some thunderstorms. But if the front moves through faster than what we are expecting now, our chances of rain will go farther east. 

Are we turning the corner on the drought? Not likely. Just look at the forecast for rainfall over the next 16 days. It's not encouraging for southwest Kansas at all. Eastern Kansas may catch some periodic light rain events, but I don't see any good soaking rains coming this way anytime soon. More active weather is expected east of us, and chances for snow will be moving back across the northern Plains, but for Kansas, I don't like these 2 week outlooks that have little to no substantial moisture for central and western part of the state.

Two rounds to go!

Doesn't this always seem to happen? We see light at the end of our winter tunnel, and all of a sudden, we get hit. This winter has been a little strange, but all of a sudden we seem to be in an active setup.

So here's what you need to know for the next round coming to Kansas:

The next batch of moisture is going to move in from the south (likely be after 4 or 5 p.m.). Unlike what happened Tuesday morning, there won't be thunderstorms with this next event. However, we still expect all precipitation types, include sleet, snow, and some freezing rain.

5 PM Wednesday Evening

8 PM Wednesday Evening

Midnight - Early Thursday

While we still don't expect enough ice accumulation to cause major power outages, there will be some very slick roads. The same areas that had icy weather Monday night have the best chance of slick conditions Wednesday night/early Thursday.

What about the weekend storm?
The Saturday system looks less and less impressive all the time. The storm is tracking right over Kansas, which drags too much dry air through our state. That will cut down on our chances of higher rainfall amounts. A few rain showers will develop Saturday, and some snow may slide across northern Kansas, but I'm thinking the majority of snowfall accumulation is going to go into Nebraska. 

The active weather isn't over yet!
We could be looking at another chance for some wet weather right at the beginning of March. It's early to say very much about the system, but another system sets up in the southwest, which could be good news for the Plains. We sure do need it.

Watching for SOME rain-snow this week

Welcome to Monday and this could be an active week throughout the Plains. Active doesn't necessarily mean we are all going to get rain or snow, but there are several features to watch and track throughout the week. 

Now - Tuesday Evening:

A slow moving cold front (that will actually wobble back and forth) will help to spark off some rain and thunderstorms. Some wintry weather is possible in northeast Kansas, but most of the action will be east of the Flint Hills. Best chances for the rain to get farther west will come Tuesday morning or early afternoon, but even then, it's not likely to be any farther west than I-135.

Another chance Thursday:

There's another little batch of moisture coming through Thursday afternoon. Once again, the main focus will mainly be in eastern Kansas. This should be some light rain, mixed with a few snow showers in northeast Kansas. Amounts will be under 0.25"

Saturday - Feb. 24:

Another system will come through the Plains during the weekend and if we're lucky, another round of moisture will be possible. This won't be a drought busting setup, but chances for rain and snow will push through Kansas. We can't get too excited about this yet because the forecast can and will change some as time goes along. However, at least we have something on the horizon (other than fire danger and 0% chances of rain)

A return of thunderstorms & heavy rains

We've made it to the weekend and we are very close to our next storm coming through the Plains. Some of you are still hoping for a good snow storm, but at this point, I think we'd take whatever moisture we can get. What is happening right now in Kansas is VERY unusual and it's setting records.

Setup for early next week:
There's going to be a slow moving system coming through the Plains early in the week. The potential is definitely there for some areas to get soaking rains, but the concern... will it all go east of us?

A cold front pushing through the state will be the key as to where the rain begins to develop. Chances for strong to severe storms are possible in southeast Kansas Monday night-early Tuesday. The front is also moving so slow that heavy rains are likely. This is just what we need in Kansas, but we need to push the entire system back about 200-300 miles.

Unless there is some major shift in this setup, we will just have to keep looking down the road for the next storm.

This is a look at how much rain could fall between now and next Wednesday night

Chance for strong storms in February... really?

Severe storms in February? Yes, it can happen and early next week, there's a setup that will favor some strong storms nearby. But if you've been reading the blog periodically throughout the winter, you know I keep talking about the fact we are not in the right spot. And again early next week, our area has a close call with some soaking rains (and hail/wind storms), but will it all go east of us.

There's going to be a HUGE storm system developing across the western US. This kind of setup will produce big, soaking rains. But it's all going to come down to how far east the front pushes.

The area with the best chance of strong storms is in the yellow shaded area:

And look at how much rain could fall at the beginning of the week. It's not a mistake... areas across the Ozarks are going to get 2-4" of rain. That's just about what most of us in Kansas would need to break the back of this ongoing drought. 

It's beginning to feel like Mother Nature has something against us. We will continue to watch and see if the setup changes, but for now, most of the computer models are showing the rain going east. Ugh.

A few close calls on rain

Most of Kansas continues to struggle with the dry weather and lack of significant storms to move through the Plains. Here's a look at some numbers I shared last night on the air, and you have to admit, this is crazy. For one particular place to go over 140 days without .25" is very unusual. And south central Kansas is still waiting on the first 1" of snow.

We have some close calls coming up later this week. After crazy warmth Wednesday, a strong cold front is going to move through Thursday. Just look where the rain starts to develop. It's going to barely miss us to the southeast.

And then this weekend, on the warm side of a front, another batch of rain showers will slide southeast of us. 

We do see a rather large buckle in the jet stream early next week and a setup like we haven't seen all winter. But will we get missed again? It's going to come down to where the front sets up. Right now, there is decent enough confidence to introduce some chance for rain/wintry mix early next week. 

The long range outlook still has plenty of cold weather yet to come. Most of March should have colder than normal weather. For those hoping to get a snow storm yet, there's still a chance. But it feels as if it will take an act of Congress to get it to happen in southern Kansas. 

I would also expect our chances of seeing an early severe weather season to be extremely low. When cold dominates like it probably will in March, chances of severe storms should be on hold. 

Weekend snow chance update

We made it to Friday and here we go again. Another chance for snow pushing into Kansas and once again, the favored snow track is across the north. If you've ever wondered if patterns repeat, this is proof that they do. Northern Kansas is in the right spot for the snow this winter, while the south is left out.

Here's what to expect:

There's not going to be a ton of wind with this snow chance, so blowing snow won't be a big problem. What we lack in wind, we will make up for in COLD air. Wind chills will be pretty ugly Saturday afternoon.

Snow: This will be a powdery snow (not the kind that's good for snowballs and snowmen), but it's moisture nonetheless. We would need about 20 inches to get up close to 1" of liquid, but nobody will get 20" this weekend.

Because this system is NOT coming through the 4 corners area, moisture is somewhat limited once again. But, given the fact some of you in northern Kansas will have 10-14 hours of light snow, it will accumulate. There could easily be 4-5" amounts along and north of I-70. Could it be more? Sure. That's the case with many storms is that some area might pick up something a little higher, but we are trying to give you and overall sense of what the storm could do. 

Sunday: After early morning clouds and a few flurries, the sun comes out.

Could we see some rain next week????? Well, before we get our hopes too high, just remember how things have been going for us all winter. Most of the storms this winter have found a way to go around us, but a batch of moisture coming up from the south could be here by Thursday or Friday.

Snow checkup & a look at what's next

We often talk about repeating setups or patterns, and if you look at where the snow track has been this winter, it's not hard to see... it's north. I've lost count of how many systems have produced snow in northern Kansas, while the rest of us just wait for anything. Right now, 10% of the winter wheat crop is in very poor condition, with 34% considered poor. Drought conditions continue to expand and we will see the new map Thursday.

Here's a checkup on the seasonal snowfall around the state. Even though northern Kansas has been getting snow, most areas are still below normal. 

Early look at the weekend:

I see so many different forecasts out there. I see forecasts calling for freezing drizzle, ice, sleet, etc. Please don't panic. What we get this weekend will be cold, clouds, and a few very light snow showers Saturday. This weekend weather (albeit cold), shouldn't be that rough around Kansas. Here's what the setup looks like:

1) Colder air starts surging in Friday. Temperatures will be falling through the day.

2) Next feature to watch is a little system coming over the Rockies and into Kansas Saturday.

It looks like some light snow will move across the area (some accumulation possible), but the best chances for icy weather will likely setup east of our area. So if you plan to go east of the Flint Hills OR into northeast Oklahoma on Saturday, you could very well run into some slick roads. 

3) Sun will be coming back on Sunday, but it's still going to be cold.

Looking deeper into February, we still don't see any major changes taking place in the overall setup. This stubborn north/northwest wind pattern will continue. That's been the trouble all winter. And any system that comes in on those northwest winds doesn't produce much in the way of widespread moisture. We are in a rough spot right now, but I keep looking down the road trying to find something. For now... we just keep waiting and preparing to brave the cold. I do think temperatures are going to warm later this month, but we still have plenty more cold coming in March.

Snow is coming, but....

This will not be a big storm for the Plains. I've run into several people who are still hoping for a good snow storm, but this is not the one. And when I reference "a good snow storm", I'm talking about accumulation of 5" or more.

With the exception of the blizzard that hit NW Kansas a few weeks ago, almost all of the storms have been somewhat starved of moisture. And even when we do get some snow, temperatures are so cold that there isn't much liquid content in what does fall.

Tuesday AM:
We should begin to see some light snow or flurries around the state by sunrise. I don't think too many schools are going to shut down with this kind of event. Some snow packed spots are possible on highways and interstates. There just isn't much moisture content to what we are going to see Tuesday.

Tuesday PM/Eve:
This is when we will get the majority of the snow to fall. Just about everyone in Kansas has a chance to see some minor accumulation.

Accumulation:
So we think most of the snow will end up in central/northern Kansas. From Scott City, to Great Bend, over to Salina and north, I would expect some 2-4" amounts. As you get farther south, it's looking like T-1" for most. There shouldn't be a lot of wind with this snow, so it may actually land on some of the area wheat fields. But as I mentioned earlier, when melted down, there won't be that much moisture. We would need closer to 15 or 20 inches to equal 1" of liquid precipitation.

Watching the Tuesday storm

Good Saturday morning. Just a quick update on what features we are watching for Tuesday. This system has a chance of producing a wintry mix for Kansas, but the way it's approaching Kansas, it's not likely to be a big storm.

The system looks like it will produce a mix of rain and snow for the area, with a potential of the heaviest falling over eastern Kansas. I would like to see the storm drop farther into the Southwest before it moves into the Plains. If it doesn't, our chances of heavier moisture are slim. I'm not trying to be negative, but given our recent track record of wet weather, we need to careful about getting too excited with this system.

There's still so much we need to watch and study in the coming days. We are desperate for something to help reduce the fire concerns and give a boost to the winter wheat crop. I'm hoping when I update the blog on Monday, we will have even better news.

Have a terrific weekend.