January outlook

Might be hard to believe that 2018 is quickly coming to a close. Here are just a few of the big weather stories that we covered this year:

• Record late start to tornado season - made it all the way to the end of April without a single tornado reported in Kansas and Oklahoma

From the blog post April 20

• EF3 tornado that hit in northern Salina county and southern Ottawa county
• EF3 tornado that hit on June 26th in Eureka

Downtown Eureka

• Record rainfall in October

• Earliest measurable snowfall for some areas (mid-October)

We've now had two blizzards in Kansas and winter is just barely getting started. And overall, we've had some fairly mild weather in December, but we think most of January is going to be quite cold! 

January Outlook:
I've mentioned it here several times before, but watching the Arctic Oscillation (AO) unlocks some clues to longer range temperature patterns (not just for Kansas but much of the USA). We see it going well into the negative for most of January, and when that happens, we should get a temperature pattern that looks like the one below. All of the areas shaded in blue are typically colder than normal with a negative AO.

Several forecast models are showing a negative AO as we head through mid/late January. So we expect to have many different cold snaps in the weeks ahead. And some of them will last more than just a couple of days.

We already see temperatures below normal to kick off the new year. Just take a look at the forecast through January 5th. 

January 9-14 should look like this:

Millie and I wish you a Happy New Year. We hope you'll stick with us in the new year as we see what Mother Nature has next for Kansas.