How much snow this weekend?

How much snow will we get this weekend? Well, the computer models suggest to us this storm will roll through in about 12 hours and the moisture is limited. So our prediction isn't for any heavy amounts, but for some of you, even two more flakes of snow is too much.

Snow begins:
In western Kansas, it should be right around dark, with snow continuing until about 3 a.m. Sunday.
Central Kansas should begin to see snow by 9-11 pm and it will snow until about 5/6 a.m. Sunday.

Blowing snow: 

The wind will be gusty from the northeast to about 25-30 mph. So be prepared for some sideways snow, but it's not likely to be a blizzard like some areas had last weekend. That being said, you'll see a little drifting of snow, but it's doubtful that roads will close for this particular storm.

Wind Chill WARNING: 

Even though the snowfall won't be that heavy, dangerous wind chills will present themselves early Sunday and for the beginning of next week. Sunday afternoon could see wind chills down around -15. Those kinds of wind chills can lead to frostbite in 30 minutes.

Next round of snow - here we go

Finishing off February on a COLD note... and early March isn't going to be any different. While we are moaning and groaning over this forecast, we are getting closer to things warming up. It may take awhile to get there, but every day gets us that much closer. 

February average temperatures:

When you average the highs and lows for this month, over half of the US has been colder than normal. The eastern 1/3 has had a lot less cold than the central and northern Plains. 

Here's what comes next:

Temperatures may come up a little bit for Kansas Thursday and Friday, but not for long. What will likely be our last MAJOR (and longest stretch) of bitter cold is sinking south into Kansas by Friday evening. 

Saturday - chances for light snow/flurries across northern Kansas

It shouldn't be that heavy, but I'm expecting to see at least some snow Saturday afternoon in northern Kansas. 

Sat. Night-Sunday:

Everyone will get snow this weekend. Saturday night shows snow coming from Colorado and spreading east through the Plains. This is another fast moving event with a snow chance that will be around for about 12-15 hours, then gone. We do expect accumulation though. And there will be wind- north to northeast wind gusts will top 25 mph. This won't be a blizzard, but the snow will not be coming straight down either. 

When it's over, accumulation is likely. We will start releasing forecast snowfall numbers Thursday, but most of the state will have some accumulation. The highest amounts will probably end up in the northern half of Kansas. 

Brutal cold for early March: 

Again, I wish I had better news, but the kind of temperatures we are looking at for the beginning of next week might set some records. Overnight temperatures could fall to record levels (below zero), and afternoon highs will be 30-40 degrees colder than normal. This huge, Arctic high is going to setup right over Kansas, which means the first half of next week is COLD. 

Hang in there... we will get to spring, but it's going to be awhile yet.

How does this winter compare to normal?

Kansas is experiencing a somewhat "normal" winter this year and for most of us, it feels like it's out of the ordinary.

Three locations to showcase here; Goodland, Wichita, and Concordia. Most of us are experiencing temperatures close to our winter average, but snowfall numbers are quite different depending on where you live.

Goodland:

Snowfall AND temperatures are just about on target for this point in the season. The average temperature this winter is within a degree of what's typical.

Wichita:

The average temperature this winter is also within a degree of the norm. But southern Kansas hasn't quite had the amounts of snow that places farther north have.

Concordia:

This is where winter is maybe overstaying it's welcome. Look at how much snow Concordia has had since late last fall. They are running more than 20 inches above average and we will likely get more snow in March to push that number even higher.

Icy threat early Wed:

There's going to be a small window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle. It's not going to be that widespread, or all that heavy. But I do think south central Kansas could be up against some icy patches early in the day.

Another blast of cold coming!

It's the last thing you want to hear from me with March beginning Friday, but some of the coldest air that we've seen this season is moving south AGAIN. So take a look. By the time we reach Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will be dropping and we could see single digits/teens for highs by Sunday. This would put us 30-40° below normal... crazy if you ask me.

There will be a chance for snow Saturday night/early Sunday, but this isn't much of a storm. It will be so cold that just enough moisture will get squeezed from the atmosphere to produce some snow. I'll be sharing some thoughts on accumulation as we get closer, but this system will be VERY different than the last one we saw.

Winter Storm Update - track shifted

Heading into the weekend with another big winter storm on our hands. It's the same storm that dropped over 31" of snow on Flagstaff, AZ. That's more snow than some of us have had in 5+ years combined.

What's changed??
There aren't many, but one important piece of the weekend storm looks different and that is the track. It's now a bit farther north, which will push the heavier amounts a little farther west and north. We still expect a significant amount with this storm, but it should be farther west.

Here's a look at the map. This low pressure will go from north of Amarillo to Medicine Lodge, and then head up to KC. VERY strong winds are likely Saturday afternoon, so you'll want to be prepared for at least 3-4 hours of blizzard conditions in western Kansas.

THUNDER Chances too! - Given the impressive nature of the storm system, we will likely hear thunder over southwest, central, and south central Kansas. Remember, when you hear thunder and it's snowing outside, the amounts can pile up FAST!

Please be careful if traveling on Saturday. And good news... this is our last winter storm that we will have for awhile. So we can all catch our breath after this weekend is over.

Be safe.

Weekend storm getting closer

It's probably the last thing you want to hear from me... more wet/snowy/cold weather is coming. We tried to warn you in our winter weather forecast back in November that it looked like above normal snowfall and a colder winter was coming. And... here we are looking at another winter system.

The biggest difference with this approaching storm over the one we just had is the wind will be so much stronger. Gusts will be above 35 mph for several hours Saturday.

Here's a bit more about the timing/breakdown:

Friday - Skies will be cloudy with drizzle or some light rain from time to time. The rainfall we get on Friday won't be much more than .10" for most areas. Heading into Friday night, the rainfall should pick up a bit and continue to Saturday morning.

Saturday morning: A switch to snow should've already happened and the wind gusts should be above 25 mph at the beginning of the day. They will get stronger by mid to late morning.

Saturday (between 10 am-1 pm):

I would expect a change to snow will take place during this time period for central Kansas. The storm will continue to intensify, so wind gusts should go above 40 mph in some spots heading into early afternoon. Visibility will be poor for a few hours because of the blowing snow.

Saturday (between 2-5 pm):

South central Kansas will be seeing some snow, but given the current track, the majority of the accumulation will stay north.

How much rain/snow:

It's looking like the heaviest snow will track from southwest through central Kansas, on north of I-70. Heaviest snow will likely be amounts of at least 4". We will be releasing some updated numbers and forecasts later today (Thursday).

Rain amounts:

It's looking like some areas will get close to .50" rain BEFORE the changeover to snow. It's been such a wet winter, so this storm fits right in with how things have been going lately.

One storm today - another one late week

Our snowfall forecast hasn't changed much since we first released it Sunday. In the crosshairs of the heaviest snow will be central and eastern Kansas. Some areas are expected to get 3-5", which usually isn't a big snow for Kansas. However, given the snow drought in parts of the state, this storm is getting a great deal of attention.

Start time: Should be around 2-4 pm for southern Kansas. This moisture will spread in from the south as the storm gets energized.

Heaviest snow: This will likely fall between 5 and 9 p.m. This is when we should expect the majority of our accumulation to take place. Wind speeds will stay down below 15 mph, so as we've been suggesting, blowing snow isn't likely to be a concern with this storm.

STORM #2: Another system is coming from the southwest for the end of the week. This storm will encounter some warmer weather initially, so there's going to be a rain chance before most get a chance at snow.

By early Saturday morning: 

It's looking like western Kansas will have changed over to snow, while farther east, it's expected rain will still be falling. Temperatures should still be in the 40s in central and eastern Kansas.

Saturday late afternoon/early evening: 

The rain/snow line keeps moving east. There will also be wind with this storm, so we should be ready for blowing snow in western Kansas. And there's a chance we will have several hours of blowing snow into central Kansas too, but so much will depend on the track of the storm.

Stormy week ahead - so much to cover

Yes... they are making snowmen in Las Vegas as a somewhat rare event just occurred with our next storm churning it's way toward Kansas. We still have a month to go before reaching spring and you still find mixed feelings about this cold and snow. Some of you still want one more good snow, but the overwhelming majority seem to be ready for spring. The cold weather has been relentless lately and we still have a lengthy stretch ahead of us.

So here's what happens today (Monday):

Most snow will be very light - flurries to 1" in spots. This is the leading edge of the storm, so most of the state won't have much to worry about for now. It does stay cold with temperatures in the teens and 20s. 

Tuesday storm - snow for everyone:

This is when the main part of the storm gets energized and begins to make a push across the Plains. So our widespread snow comes Tuesday afternoon and into the night. We don't expect the wind to be all that strong, so blowing snow is likely to be a lower concern for the area. But we will still have some very cold temperatures and difficult driving conditions during the main event. 

Another storm next weekend? - This one will have warmer temperatures

I'm expecting the weather to start changing quickly by Friday. Clouds, fog, drizzle, and some rain showers will be developing into the night. Then as the storm begins moving east, we see the switch to snow happening in the west. This could (and likely will be) a fairly wet storm for the Plains. It will also have some wind with it too, so western Kansas may see some hours of blowing snow. There's still so much to figure out as we get closer in time, but the active pattern rolls on.

More snow - less ice coming to Kansas

Hope everyone has a safe weekend. We have more rounds of wintry weather setting up for the Plains, but it's looking less likely for ice in the coming days.

Saturday snow chance:

This will develop right over Kansas by Saturday afternoon and evening. It's not a storm that will be around for long, so snowfall amounts anywhere in Kansas will be very limited. A dusting for most, but in northeast Kansas, a few spots might get an inch. Light snow should push east into Saturday night.

Early next week:

There will be several days of snow chances setting up for Kansas and surrounding areas. We will have a storm in the upper atmosphere spread out over a large area Monday/Tuesday. This will put Kansas in an area to see light snow from Monday - early Wednesday. Because the temperatures will be quite cold, snowfall amounts will likely be very light (only a few inches over 2 days) - there won't be much moisture content to the snow.

It won't be until Wednesday before the storm finally gets east of Kansas and we get back to some sunshine.

This is a VERY active stretch for Kansas and will likely continue through much of the week. I know many of you are ready for spring, but I'm expecting the colder than normal weather to hold as we  finish off February.

Have you heard?

It was declared this week that El Nino is now officially back - it's a weak one, but the water temperatures are warmer than normal and have been influencing part of our weather pattern this winter. Remember, El Nino is the warmer than normal water found near the Equator in the Pacific. El Nino is not a storm, but rather a phenomenon that influences weather patterns. It should continue through springtime in Kansas. This will be a topic for us to discuss in a future blog post.

Ice & snow moving in soon

Ready or not, another round of messy weather is coming to Kansas and it will have an impact on many areas. Some of you get ice, some get sleet, and others get snow. We will ALL get the cold weather.

So here's a breakdown of when it starts and when it wraps up.
Around 3-6 a.m. Friday:

The icy weather quickly develops and starts moving east. This should be mostly sleet, but some freezing drizzle may mix in too. Farther north, I'm expecting light snow. This should be for most areas north of I-70. Ice accumulation won't be enough for widespread power outages or tree damage, but roads and sidewalks could be a mess.

Around mid-morning to early afternoon:

The entire area of icy weather and snow continues moving east. Most of the sleet and freezing drizzle will be winding down, but snow will continue farther north. And accumulations will be underway in north central and northeast Kansas.

Early Friday evening:

The snow quickly pushes east and it will be wrapping up for our area. We might even see some sunshine in western Kansas toward the late afternoon timeframe.

Saturday evening:
Another chance for some light snow is coming through, but it shouldn't amount to much. There might be a few hours of light snow or flurries, but it's doubtful that it would be anything widespread.

Snowfall forecast:

I'm expecting widespread 1-3" amounts for areas north of I-70, but as you get closer to Manhattan, Topeka, and KC, it will be closer to 3 and 4 inch amounts.

How much snow for Kansas

Latest models are coming into better alignment on where we can expect snow and when for the remainder of the week. Of course on a day like today (Wednesday), most of us won't be thinking of snow when the temperature is 60°+.

So here's what we are looking at Friday:

Snow will begin in central and western Kansas earlier in the day. It will be a swath of light snow that will push east and gradually get heavier. By early Friday evening, the snow should begin its departure from Kansas. The closer you are to the Oklahoma line, there's a chance it will be a mix of drizzle/snow flurries. The target of this round of winter weather is northeast Kansas. Some areas could pick up 3-5 inches of snow. Most of Kansas won't be getting very much.

Saturday night:

It's not exactly a storm at all, but a batch of light snow or flurries will travel from west to east through Kansas, likely dusting some areas with snow. Once again, amounts will be very light.

We are still watching early next week for another chance for snow Monday evening-Tuesday. 

At this time, there's still some question as to what will take place, but confidence is increasing that it won't be a big storm for our area. However, we will have chances for snow and there's still a great deal for us to figure out before we can say too much about the system arriving early next week. So stay tuned.

Not 1, Not 2, but 3 storms to watch

It's nice to have sunshine back in Kansas for the next few days. The warmer temperatures will be a nice change, but somewhat misleading because there's so much cold air overwhelming the weather pattern and Kansas will soon be back in the middle of it.

We expect Wednesday to be the warmest day this week for much of the area, as temperatures begin falling Thursday.

Not 1, but 3 different weather features to watch in the coming days:

Friday: This is not a terribly strong storm and should be moving quickly, but some snow accumulation looks possible. Light snow and flurries will begin in western Kansas before spreading east. It could be that the best chance at accumulation will setup across north central and eastern Kansas, but how much isn't clear just yet.

Saturday: Another weak system will come through at the beginning of the weekend. This is one is weak & highly unlikely to produce much more than flurries for the area.

Monday: The series of storm systems continue to move our way. The one we are forecasting for the beginning of next week also looks rather weak, but may still produce some light snow or flurries around the state.

And there will be more stormy weather coming later next week too. It's a very, very active weather setup for the next couple of weeks. And it's not going to be that warm either. Just look at the temperature forecast taking us into the last few days of February. Much of the country will be stuck with below normal temperatures.