An October outlook - snow to begin the month for some

Made it to Friday and we have a weekend coming up that will see some pretty radical changes from one day to the next. Saturday looks like a day with potential storms for some, and even if you aren't getting rain, temperatures look quite cool with clouds. Sunday, however, looks more like summer. The winds crank up and temperatures will shoot into the mid and upper 80s.

Temperatures in September have looked like this - much of the country WARM!!

First change into October - a storm from the northwest!

There is a HUGE buildup of colder air that settles into the northwest part of the US. That's where the snow will be flying this weekend. Just look at what one model is showing for accumulation into Montana and the northern Rockies. There will be some 6-12" amounts (or more) by the end of the weekend.

The Plains - decent chances of rain coming up in the next 10-12 days. 
Even western Kansas may get in on some of this moisture. It may not be enough, but will be nice to have some of the rain forced farther west where drought conditions are recently expanding. "Above average" rain in early October could be anything from .50" on up to 1.5 or 2"

October begins with a cooling trend for areas that have been hot

The chilly air is expected to push east and eventually take a turn to the southeast. So where it's been really warm in September, we should begin to see fall temperatures and it will likely feel pretty good in the coming weeks.

Heading into mid-October:

It looks pretty pleasant with near normal temperatures for much of the central Plains. The cool weather will spread across the upper Midwest and head east. I'm thinking we will have a nice stretch of weather into the middle of the month. Rain chances should continue too. I don't look for monster rains and flooding like we've seen earlier this year (even as recent ago as August), but encouraging signs for places that need moisture.

Second half of October looks WARM again AND potentially dry

Signs are pointing toward some warmer weather moving back to the Plains into the second part of October. I'm not looking at 90s, but it would be expected to have some lower 80s.

I'm probably different than most meteorologists in the plains... October is my favorite month. Watching the transition from summer to winter is really an interesting thing as the jet stream intensifies, our day to day weather can be wildly different. It's really not unusual to have some 40° differences from one area to the next on any given afternoon. Fascinating to me!

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend.

Seasons are definitely flipping - changes more dramatic

Good morning and thanks for spending a few minutes checking into the details of our very changeable weather for the rest of this week. Cold fronts ARE in fact getting stronger now and there will be some more significant ups and downs for the rest of the week.

First cold front - today (Tuesday):

The front will ignite some storms for central and south central Kansas into the evening and overnight. Severe chances are low, but certainly NOT zero. Some small hail and wind gusts to 50 or 60 look possible as storms move southeast into the evening.

Wednesday AND Thursday temperatures cool, but nothing unusual:
Still looks like most of the area will probably have temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (and a few low 80s too) - but this is more typical of late September weather.

Thursday storms:

Let's watch and see how this setup comes together, but my expectations are the storms will happen very late Wednesday night and early Thursday, then we should begin to see things slowly dry up as we go into the afternoon.

Second cold front - Friday evening-early Saturday:
This one will be stronger and changes will be MORE significant for much of the region. There could be a 30-35° from warm to cool, so it's going to be a wild end to the week. Rainfall won't be extremely high for most of the area. Just look at what the models are suggesting between now and Sunday. Rains are spotty and not likely to be big soakers.

Snow and/or frost coming soon?

Okay, one of these is more likely than the other. And if you picked frost, well you are right. I think it's very possible for northwest Kansas to see some frost at some point next week (week of Sep. 30) - the exact day isn't clear yet, but we sure see some much chillier weather pushing south. Snowfall is LIKELY for the northern Rockies and into the northern Cascades. The jet stream is getting MUCH stronger in the next 10-12 days, which is very normal going into October. It's why I love this time of year so much because the changes are incredible from warm to cold. I don't think we are totally done with summer-like weather yet, but fall is starting to show strength and potential of overcoming what has been a REALLY warm September.

Changes to our rain chances - when will it get here

We've had very little fall weather to enjoy this month of September and it's starting to drive some of you crazy (or is it just me). In fact, look at this for the month of September. We've had almost as many 90° high temperatures this month as we had in all of August. And the count won't stop at 13.

September as a whole:

For most of the Plains, it's been rather warm, with the only cooler than normal weather focused across the Great Lakes and the far New England states.

Heavy rain potential from Imelda?
It is something that is not off the table yet. That moisture continues moving north and while the system will be dead before it leaves Texas, the leftover moisture in the air will keep pushing north. So if we can squeeze that out of the atmosphere, some places could be dumped on over the weekend. This approaching cold front IS DELAYED! It's now NOT likely to get into Kansas until Saturday afternoon or Sunday.

Here's how the forecast will be different:
1) Storms are not as likely for Friday evening - a few may develop in parts of western KS

2) Front doesn't reach KS now until Saturday afternoon, which means we will likely have another very warm day (highs 85-90°)

3) Potential of heavier rains hold off until late Saturday night (central & northeast KS) and will again be possible on Sunday over south central and eastern KS

I am expecting it to NOT be as hot this weekend (as we've advertised this week so far) but for most of the state, relief may not be felt until the second half of the weekend. So timing AND impacts have been adjusted because the front is going to be slower coming in.

Who's ready for fall?
Well some areas of the country are getting there fast! How about frost and freeze warnings out for the northeast. It's going to be SEVERAL weeks before we even come close here in the Plains.

Summer heat holds on but signs of a change

Hope you had a great weekend. The state fair is over and I had a wonderful opportunity to visit with some of you. Sounds like there are mixed feelings about the heat in September. Many of you are ready for fall, but for fall harvest, the sun and heat seem to be helping things along.

Check this out:

 We've had enough hot weather that if the month ended today, it would be the hottest September on record in south central Kansas (and likely many other areas too). I know we still have a few weeks left in the month and temperatures are going to change later this week, but this is just ridiculous (not unheard of) in September. When you add in the heat that we see today - Wednesday, we will push that average even higher.

We are not alone in the heat!

Just look at the 90s going all the way into North Dakota! And when that happens in mid-September, there are bound to be records that far north. It's unlikely that we will have record high temperatures in Kansas at any point this week, but we are easily 10° warmer than normal.

Signs of a change:

We can see the cool pocket of air coming through the Northwest and it should continue to move our way. However, the COOLEST part of that air will likely reside just north, so yes we will cool down late week, but we are not heading for a frost anytime soon. (sorry if you were hoping that was a week away)

Tropical moisture could be moving our way:

There is a healthy batch of storms in the Gulf of Mexico on this Monday. While it is highly UNLIKELY to turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, that area of heavy rainfall crashes into Texas by Tuesday/Wednesday, and the leftover tropical moisture should move north. As it encounters the cooler air (mentioned above), we could be setup for some heavy rainfall by Friday night/Saturday in parts of the state. Exact timing is not very clear at the moment, but we will stay focused on that moving through the week.

September warmth & trouble is lurking

We are reaching the halfway point in September and this has been a WARM month so far. It's also been pretty dry for much of Kansas. I guess we should be glad we received the rain that we did in August because this month is quite the opposite. 

Just look at our monthly average temperatures so far in September:

Earlier this week in our 10 day forecast, we may have prematurely jumped on the fall weather bandwagon. The long range outlooks continue to show "endless summer", and that's what we are seeing for most of the central Plains in the coming weeks. So we are slowly peeling back the cool weather we were advertising for next weekend (Sep. 21/22). 

Why does it continue to look warm?

You can see the jet stream (a belt of strong winds at 20-30k feet) is aimed at Canada, and that's likely to keep most, if not all, of the really cool weather locked farther north. So it's above normal temperatures as we continue on through the next few weeks. The areas that should begin to cool down here in 12-15 days will likely be east of Kansas. So we will see how this goes, but my gut feeling is that we stay with very WARM weather the next few weeks. Bummer for those who were hoping for early fall.

Trouble brewing:

The tropics will be an active spot over the next few weeks too. The Bahamas are cleaning up after Dorian and this weekend, watching for a possible storm again. It goes northwest and could graze the outer banks of Florida. 

But then look what shows up in another week. There's ANOTHER storm that could develop into something near the Bahamas. Will it get into the Gulf, or slide up and staying the Atlantic? Stay tuned. 

Where is fall? Chances for storms returning

Some of you came by our state fair booth last weekend asking about fall weather. I would say the overwhelming majority of people were asking for 70° temperatures and lower HUMIDITY. At this point in the season, most of us are ready to get rid of this Gulf moisture. Where is fall weather? Let's take a look:

Tuesday morning: As of this writing, you have to look up into southern Canada to really find the cool, fall weather. There are some scattered areas in the Rockies that have 40s and 50s this morning, but for mid-September, there's still just a lot of warm/hot air covering the maps. 

Next cold front arriving soon (Wed. night/Thursday):

This front will bring some scattered rains AND a drop in temperatures, but it's FAR from being a strong cold front. Look at temperature setup for Friday (when all of Kansas will be on the "cooler" side) - still looks like mostly 80s in our area!

Storm chances return - Wednesday night will see scattered storms to northern Kansas and then spreading south by Thursday morning. It's unlikely for widespread, heavy rains, but I do expect that much of the are will have some chances for storms. Southwest Kansas (sorry), you will probably get missed almost entirely. Look at the big time rainfall that's forecast to pass north of our area. Several places from Nebraska north will get 1-3 inches (or more) by the end of the week. 

This is still looking like an endless summer setup for the next couple of weeks (at least). There will be some very brief encounters with cooler weather, but for right now, summer lovers should NOT panic that we are headed to early fall.

Look up this weekend

Since we are in the midst of some quiet weather in much of the Plains right now, it might be worth spending a few minutes looking for some planets this weekend. Since I leave work at 11 pm each night, I usually get a chance to see what planets are out there each night on my way home. Skies will be clear for part of the weekend (at the beginning at least), so be on the lookout for Saturn AND Jupiter. It's reported that Neptune will be visible as well, but you'll need a telescope to find it.

Next Week:

Temperatures - still looks rather warm, but it won't be as hot as some of the weather we've seen in our first week of the new month. Much of the region will have 80s, which is closer to normal in September. Check out the map above - those are your average temperatures - the western US is finally cooling down nicely.

Precipitation:
There will be a few more chances of SPOTTY storms during the week. The only chance that stands out (our best shot) at some rain will come Thursday night with a stronger cold front coming through the area. We should get most of our rain at this time (and when I say "most", it might only be a .50")

The heavier rains next week should pass north of Kansas.

This weather pattern we are in now reminds me of July when much of the state was hot and dry. If you remember, late in July much of Kansas was hurting for some rain and the moisture started up again in August. So will the rest of September continue to be dry? It certainly is looking that way, but not a total shutout of rain either.

Tropical focus & rainfall thoughts

Hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend. We continue to watch Dorian going up the east coast with so much wind, high surf, and flooding rainfall. It's not uncommon for a storm like Dorian to stall as it did over the Bahamas. When hurricanes get pinched between a high and low pressure, the steering winds can be so light that there's nothing to move it around. But now that we have an approaching low pressure in the upper Midwest, that should help to shove the system on to the northeast. Up until recently, Dorian was moving back to the west because of the large high pressure over the open Atlantic.

Another tropical storm:
There is another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, but it dies out later this week in Mexico and is NOT expected to be an influence on Kansas weather.

Where is fall weather?

You might be looking for some cooler weather this time of year, but right now, it's locked up in the Northeast and across the Great Lakes region. It's not going to move south for awhile, so you'll have to settle for 80s as being "cool" for right now. Forecast models hold the warmer weather over the Plains for now. And high pressure is keeping most of the rain away from Kansas for the time being. Even much of next week will likely have near to above normal temperatures.

Rainfall for the remainder of the week and this weekend:

Not looking good if you need moisture. Some areas in western Kansas would probably appreciate some rain. Chances are very slim between now and the end of the weekend. A few storms look possible Saturday night across far western Kansas (and some near the Nebraska state line), but overall, it's tough to get excited about moisture in the next 4-6 days.