September warmth & trouble is lurking

We are reaching the halfway point in September and this has been a WARM month so far. It's also been pretty dry for much of Kansas. I guess we should be glad we received the rain that we did in August because this month is quite the opposite. 

Just look at our monthly average temperatures so far in September:

Earlier this week in our 10 day forecast, we may have prematurely jumped on the fall weather bandwagon. The long range outlooks continue to show "endless summer", and that's what we are seeing for most of the central Plains in the coming weeks. So we are slowly peeling back the cool weather we were advertising for next weekend (Sep. 21/22). 

Why does it continue to look warm?

You can see the jet stream (a belt of strong winds at 20-30k feet) is aimed at Canada, and that's likely to keep most, if not all, of the really cool weather locked farther north. So it's above normal temperatures as we continue on through the next few weeks. The areas that should begin to cool down here in 12-15 days will likely be east of Kansas. So we will see how this goes, but my gut feeling is that we stay with very WARM weather the next few weeks. Bummer for those who were hoping for early fall.

Trouble brewing:

The tropics will be an active spot over the next few weeks too. The Bahamas are cleaning up after Dorian and this weekend, watching for a possible storm again. It goes northwest and could graze the outer banks of Florida. 

But then look what shows up in another week. There's ANOTHER storm that could develop into something near the Bahamas. Will it get into the Gulf, or slide up and staying the Atlantic? Stay tuned.