Next rounds of rain on the horizon

Wrapping up the month of April with some beautiful weather for Kansas. I've posted the rainfall numbers for the month below and you'll see that much of the state finishes below normal.

And the map clearly shows that the numbers for Wichita don't really represent south central Kansas all that well. Most of the state had a dry month and would likely benefit from some more rain, which just happens to be coming soon.

Here's what we expect Saturday night/early Sunday:

• Showers and storms will likely begin in western Kansas and eastern Colorado
• They will move east through the night
• Severe storms are unlikely as these storms should be developing BEHIND the cold front
• Rainfall amounts look to be under .50"
• Should wrap up by 9 a.m. Sunday

Latest models are showing it starting around 6 or 7 p.m. and then diving to the southeast into Kansas:

By early Sunday, the rain will depart quickly and give us a great finish to the weekend.

Early next week - Monday night/Tuesday:

• Another wave of rain should develop in the Plains
• Chances for some strong storms look possible
• Periods of heavy rainfall could setup over southern Kansas
• Should move out Tuesday morning

I don't think we will see any severe weather Saturday night, but Monday night does have a better chance for some stronger storms. We will be on the watch as we get closer.

Have a great day. I'll post a May outlook very soon. It is typically our busiest month for tornadoes, but will that be the case this year? Something we are trying to figure out.

Severe chances & potential record heat

There will be a severe chance in the Plains today, including Kansas for a change. We've been pretty fortunate lately to dodge the big storms to the south, but the setup late this afternoon will favor some severe weather across eastern Kansas. This front coming through is moving so fast that the rain chance isn't going to be around long.

Here's what some models are showing for 3 p.m.

Just 3 hours later at 6 p.m.

The biggest storms this evening will likely go through Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. A squall line (notorious for damaging wind gusts) will be pretty likely through the Ozarks and beyond. Several 60+mph wind gusts are likely southeast of here.

A weather pattern shift is going to take place later this week which will make it feel like summer. I'm not a big fan of seeing 90s at the end of April... even early to mid May would be too soon. It can dry things out in a hurry, however, this will be very short lived AND... we even see things going back the other direction early on in May (meaning... MUCH cooler weather on the horizon). So there's no need to panic that we are suddenly jumping into a long, hot summer.

Look at how much of the country will be above normal at the end of this week:

And records that we will keep tabs on as Thursday/Friday draw closer:

More chances for rain and storms are just down the road. I know there are many areas in western Kansas that area dry and would definitely appreciate a good soaking rain. I'm looking at Saturday night/early Sunday, and then potentially again to start next week. Below is a snapshot of one of the models for early Sunday. Much of the state should have a chance for some rain. More info on this as time gets closer.

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Latest spring tornadoes in Kansas

We had several waves of rain and thunderstorms in Kansas this past week, but dodged the severe weather that hit Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. One of the tornadoes in southern Oklahoma received an EF2 rating, and it was unfortunate to hear of a fatality in Madill, OK from storms Wednesday.

April in Kansas normally has its fair share of tornadoes. We are nearing the end of the month without a single one in our state and that's a pretty big deal. Here's why.

Tornado records date back to 1950:

Since then, Kansas has only had 4 years where we didn't have a single tornado all the way through April. Now I understand we still have just under a week to go, but the setup for the last few days of the month doesn't look like one that will produce tornadoes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but seems unlikely.

Most recently, 2018 had a very slow start to the season, but on May 1st, we started getting severe weather and tornadoes.

When might we have severe weather?

The pattern shown above is not going to be very conducive to severe storms in the final days of April. We will have some rain chances and potential of storms, but with the upper level winds coming from the northwest, I'm not too concerned about widespread hail, wind, or tornadoes.

Early May:

This is notoriously a busy time for severe weather. A number of high profile tornadoes have happened in the first 10 days of May. So much can change as new models come in, but we could be transitioning to some severe weather potential as we get closer to our first full week in May. It could start on May 3 or 4, but we will keep an eye on that particular week as there's a chance things will start up across our area. If our first tornado in springtime happens that week, it will officially be the 4th latest start for us in Kansas (since 1950)

A few of the features we are watching include a stronger branch of upper level winds coming out over the Plains and a series of low pressure systems back across the west. Again, this could change in time but something we will track in the coming days to see if it sets up. I'm not trying to jinx anything - I'm all about quiet weather and nice rains without big hail. But we know it's spring in Kansas after all. 

Shifting pattern for next week - summer?

April started off really dry, then all of sudden we've started getting some nice moisture. However, that is about to change and we may end the month on a dry stretch across the Plains. More info on that in a second. First, wanted to look at some rainfall numbers from the most recent round:

The most recent storm system dropped some soaking rains on most of Kansas. I know there are some areas that still need more. A new drought map is out today looking like this:

We've seen some new areas of drought popping up in north central Kansas. That area did get rain (roughly .50") on Wednesday, so maybe that will ease the stress for right now.

Keep in mind that the rainfall from Wednesday is NOT taken into consideration when the map show above was drawn up. The drought map next week will reflect the impact this weeks rains had on the state. The official numbers still show deficits in many areas around Kansas. April is traditionally not our wettest month, but typically we get 2-3 inches of rain during the month.

Next week setup: The pattern is going to switch to finish off April. While record warmth is somewhat questionable, we are going to see a big warming trend and maybe some of the warmest temperatures so far this year. Just look at the models suggest WELL above normal temperatures for the home stretch of April:

We also aren't seeing many rain chances on the horizon next week. A high pressure ridge will setup across the central and western US. That means, above normal temperatures will cover the western two-thirds of our nation. Kansas will see mainly 70s and 80s. A strong run at 90 is expected late in the week.

One rain chance will come through on Tuesday with a cold front. I would stop short of calling this a good chance, but some rain and thunder should come through late in the afternoon or evening. Severe chances look low for Kansas, but we will keep a close watch on it.

Tornado records - the good kind

Storm season 2020 has been almost non-existent in the Plains, and considering how late it is in April, you might be wondering if this is weird or record setting.

If you are new to Kansas, we do have our fair share of tornadoes. In fact, the 10 year average for tornadoes in Kansas is closer to 100, while the 30 year average is closer to 80. Sometimes by this point in the season, we've already had 20 or 30. This year is proving to be quite different, so it might feel weird. However, it is not setting records for latest tornado in a spring season. We would have to go several more weeks before we would threaten those records. 

2019 tornadoes (up to April 20): If we look back at the numbers from last year, there were two tornadoes to this point in the year. One was reported in Cowley count with the other in Greenwood county.

2018: NONE - the first tornadoes in that year would come on May 1st, which proved to be a rough day in north central Kansas with tornadoes and damage near Concordia

2017: 14 tornadoes 

2016: 3 tornadoes

2015: 20 tornadoes - that year would have a couple of EF3 tornadoes (with a total of more than 100 tornadoes through July 1st)

We say this over and over, but a slow start to the severe season bears no indication of what the remainder of the season has in store. So we have to stay alert and not be complacent just because things have been pretty calm around here.

Around the United States, tornado count is a bit higher than normal (click on the above image to make it bigger). We average roughly 400 tornadoes to this point in the year for the US. The trend right now is nothing unusual and certainly not a record that we are seeing to this point in the year. It does seem that some of the same areas area getting hit over and over again. 

Severe chances are out across the southern Plains next few days. Later this evening, there will be some stronger storms to our south in Oklahoma. Those will move east and stay south of the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Hail and high winds will be the biggest risk there.

Scattered showers and storms will continue through at least Wednesday evening, so rainfall amounts could look like this when it's over. I do think .25-.50" seems more reasonable given the track of the approaching system. However (as is normally the case), a few spots will probably get a little bit more. The biggest rains should miss us to the south, where Oklahoma gets 1-3" through Wednesday evening.

Next cold front due in Thursday night: severe chances are just not there for Kansas again, which is great news. Much of central and eastern Kansas will have storm chances, but hail and high winds are not likely.

We are still very much in a pattern that will continue to bring some rain to the Plains. At the beginning of the month, I suggested we might see more severe weather chances given the warmer Gulf of Mexico and a persistent "low" pressure in the west. Fortunately for us, it is has stayed to our south. And even looking into the pattern next week, there doesn't seem to be any big storm systems rotating through this area.

Have a great day.

Rainfall amounts & more coming soon

24 hour rainfall amounts are shown below:

The snow amounts were pretty light. Some areas did report the grass being covered but the rest of the ground was clear. Ground temperatures have warmed enough and the snow that fell Thursday night did NOT set any records for latest snowfall. South central Kansas has had measurable snow in late April and northwest Kansas has had measurable snow in mid May.

Weekend rain chances:

We do have a system coming in from the southwest and a weak cold front that will slide through Saturday night. Chances for rain are going to be focused over southwest and south central Kansas. I think you'll have to be south of I-70 to really have much of a chance. Once again, amounts up to a .50" wouldn't be that much out of the possibilities, but widespread rainfall like that appears unlikely. AND... severe chances are not likely either.

Severe threat next week: looking less likely

The upper low that we are tracking for the middle of next week should end up far enough south that severe chances would be focused in Oklahoma and Texas. Kansas will likely be spared any destructive hail or damaging wind gusts, but it is something to continue to track. We know these systems can shift around, but recent model runs are continuing to push most of the heavier rain and severe chances south.

Have a great weekend!

Severe chances next week & upcoming meteor shower

We've been pretty fortunate to dodge most of the severe weather lately. The South has been hit hard, and on top of everything else going on, it's been a difficult 3 weeks.

At this time in April (according to history), highest severe chances would normally be in Texas and southeast Oklahoma (areas shaded in darker red). That bullseye, if you will, gradually moves north as we get in closer to May.

Chances for stronger storms loom next week:

It definitely doesn't have the earmarkings of a major severe outbreak, but chances for stronger storms may very well ramp up by Tuesday and Wednesday. There's an upper low coming in from the southwest which could help to energize some of the storms. Stronger winds aloft combined with some higher Gulf of Mexico moisture moving north will be key. I'll have more updates on air and right here on the blog as we get closer in time, but something we need to keep an eye on as the time frame draws closer. Right now I would say the most likely severe chances are south of us in Oklahoma, but it's close.

Meteor shower peaking next week (April 21/22):

It's one of the oldest known meteor showers in history and it peaks in late April. The Lyrids is underway now, but it won't peak until Tuesday/Wednesday when we could see up to 18 meteors per hour. There aren't many viewing tips other than to get away from city lights and try to look off in a northeast direction. We won't have bright moonlight to wash away faint meteors, so if we get the weather to cooperate, check it out before heading to bed.

What happened to our April rainfall?

We were cruising along with some steady rains (even too much in some spots) and now all of a sudden, it has stopped. Reaching the halfway point of April and much of the state has only had a trace, or maybe no rain at all. And the freezing temperatures aren't doing us many favors either as it sounds like some of the wheat may have been damaging from the recent drop. Time will tell.

The faucet has been turned off for many lately:
Decent moisture during the first three months of the year have suddenly stopped, and I'm getting emails from some of you wondering if this is a sign of what's to come. My April outlook called for near to above normal rainfall, and so many of you haven't had a single drop.

Look at this map showing April moisture. All of the yellow on it indicates below average precipitation. Western Kansas is about .50" on the negative side, while farther east, it is closer to 1" below normal.

In the first three months of the year, we were off to a top 10 wettest starts. South central Kansas had over 7" of moisture, while in the southwest, it was about 3". Now all of a sudden, we find most of the moisture going south of us, which was expected at the beginning of the month.

Please don't panic! 

There are no signs of moving into major, prolonged drought. The next couple of weeks will be fairly active through the Plains. We are seeing signs of several systems of varying magnitudes coming through the area. That persistent dip in the jet stream west of the Plains should continue to bring chances of active weather our way through the end of the month. Will the rain go east of us, or will it setup right over Kansas? I don't think western Kansas will get that much moisture the next 2-3 weeks. Rainfall of an inch or two looks more probable farther east. The best we could hope for now is near normal rain (which would be an inch or two), but widespread soakers appear unlikely at this time.

When you get down to it, I think we will finish the month below average on rainfall (which is the image you see above), but we SHOULD get more rain that what we had during the first half of the month. The forecast of how much rain is shown below. Models are hinting at an inch or two for the next couple of weeks. If you need rain, let's hope this comes true.

Weekend cold & snow - and look what is down the road

It's hard to believe there will be a snow chance this weekend, but as we mentioned earlier this week, it has happened before in April and on Easter nonetheless. New models coming in Friday morning are suggesting the majority of the snow will be in Nebraska (lucky for them) with Kansas getting just light amounts. There will also be some scattered storms later Saturday evening. Main threat would be some some small hail, but severe chances are very low.

This will be a remarkable change for April as much colder, Arctic air plunges south to cover the central and northern Plains. If there is one positive to it for Kansas, it takes away the threat of severe storms around here. We do have a good chance of getting some snow into the area. It's not unheard of to have snow in April, but I don't think it's very popular with anyone.

Sunday Temperatures will drop fast:
It won't take long for temperatures to plummet during the day. At 1 p.m. in the afternoon, much of the state will be back in the cold air with temperatures looking like January or February. This is an Arctic blast coming in, and we need to be ready. Disconnect those garden hoses if you have already started getting that stuff out for spring.

More snow next week:
It's not a big storm, but a system coming through around Wednesday night/Thursday could have a rain/snow mix with it. There is expected to be a reinforcing shot of some chilly air coming down at some point next week, so it will be awhile before we turn the corner on this cold snap in April. Hang in there... this too will pass.

2020 dry spells:

Since we haven't had any precipitation around here lately, I went looking to see if this is the longest dry spell of the year. While it isn't the longest (yet), we are close. I'm referring to  consecutive days without measurable rain (so trace amounts don't count) Central and south central Kansas have had some pretty wet stretches in 2020, so going more than a week without moisture has been a big deal. I remember hearing back at the end of February, some farmers were asking for dry weather because they couldn't get any work done. We've moved to a drier stretch lately, and this could be a sign of what the next 30 days will bring.

The map below shows precipitation compared to normal, and it has much of the Plains below average to finish off April and the beginning of May. I guess if you are needing to do some field work, this may be good news.