And the map clearly shows that the numbers for Wichita don't really represent south central Kansas all that well. Most of the state had a dry month and would likely benefit from some more rain, which just happens to be coming soon.
Here's what we expect Saturday night/early Sunday:
- Showers and storms will likely begin in western Kansas and eastern Colorado
- They will move east through the night
- Severe storms are unlikely as these storms should be developing BEHIND the cold front
- Rainfall amounts look to be under .50"
- Should wrap up by 9 a.m. Sunday
Latest models are showing it starting around 6 or 7 p.m. and then diving to the southeast into Kansas:
By early Sunday, the rain will depart quickly and give us a great finish to the weekend.
Early next week - Monday night/Tuesday:
- Another wave of rain should develop in the Plains
- Chances for some strong storms look possible
- Periods of heavy rainfall could setup over southern Kansas
- Should move out Tuesday morning
I don't think we will see any severe weather Saturday night, but Monday night does have a better chance for some stronger storms. We will be on the watch as we get closer.
Have a great day. I'll post a May outlook very soon. It is typically our busiest month for tornadoes, but will that be the case this year? Something we are trying to figure out.
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