Saharan Dust part 2 - what July might have in store for Kansas

I've had several questions after my last post on Saharan dust coming up into the United State. I've seen some media outlets (not ours) calling it "Godzilla Dust" .... (insert eye roll here)

Here's a satellite image showing where the dust was located as of 1 a.m. Saturday.

It does cover many areas along the Gulf coast, but it is not quite as thick as it was when it was over the Caribbean. As we look at a wider view, there is even more dust coming across the Atlantic, but as I mention in the last entry, THIS ISN'T UNUSUAL at all. It is very common to see coming off the coast of Africa. And thicker dust can inhibit hurricane formation.

Forecast of dust:There will be a chance for it to move into south central Kansas Sunday. It can and probably will lead to an extra red sunrise or sunset, but causing health problems seems unlikely given that the dust will be even more dispersed and high enough up in the air that it won't be a huge problem. The upper level winds come from the south at the end of the weekend, and that's how it gets transported this far north.

Heading into early July:
This isn't going to surprise you, but it will be hot and relief looks somewhat minimal for the Plains states. Afternoon temperatures (most days) will likely stay above normal, which will mean plenty of 90s coming up. A major heat wave is NOT expected, but that doesn't mean it won't be hot.

We could see the summer high pressure system shift back westward as we approach mid-July. It's something I've seen on multiple model runs and if it does slide west, we could see the setup for storms to come off the higher elevations in Colorado.

 

Rainfall in July - might be hard to come by like it was in June. I don't think drought conditions will improve or worsen significantly. If anything, we will probably just maintain our current drought status. Normal rain in July is somewhere between 3 and 5 inches for much of the Plains. What the image below shows us is that Kansas should be near normal.

Saharan dust to KS - more active weather headed this way

I've had a couple of questions in recent days regarding the huge plume of Saharan dust from Africa making it to Kansas. First, the plume is rather substantial and does continue its westward movement. It's not unusual to see dust coming through the tropics as this is part of the global wind patterns and something we see every year when we are watching for tropical development out in the Atlantic.

Will the dust make it here? - Not likely at all
The upper level winds around Kansas are coming from the northwest (that is the area circled below), so that should keep the dust hundreds of miles from the Plains. There might be some dust reaching a few Gulf coastal states, but Florida probably has the highest chance of a hazy sky due to the dust. The Caribbean is reported to have visibility down to 5 miles in some areas because of the thick dust.

More signs of active weather for the Plains
We've had some good soaking moisture in the Plains after what was a very hot and mainly dry first half of June. There will be some isolated storms for NW Kansas Thursday evening, but those will die out quickly shortly after dark.

Friday chances look more promising, and maybe the BEST chance of anything down the stretch.. Where it sets up and how far southeast it gets on Friday is still up in the air. The computer models have really been struggling lately with finer details, but I look for this front to continue its southeast push into the late evening hours and generate storms from western Kansas to central Kansas by early evening. During the night, these storms may shift into south central Kansas and drop some pockets of heavy rain. A few of the Friday storms could be severe.

If the front stalls and begins washing out Saturday, there will still be a threat of some scattered storms Saturday afternoon or evening. The chance is NOT as high for rain on Saturday though.

Next week - a rather large storm will be setting up in the Pacific Northwest early in the week. We don't normally see a low pressure system quite this strong in summertime and temperatures are going to be remarkably cool out in those areas. Can and will it make it to the Plains? It appears unlikely to cool us down in any dramatic amount, but it may help generate clouds and some storms. It's going to have to move closer than what the models are showing now. A few storm chances may setup early in the week, but I would say chances are low.

Early July - seasonal, but not scorching. If the storm mentioned above can help in any way, it should help to keep temperatures in check for early July. Right now, I don't see a major heat wave returning anytime soon. We had a VERY warm first half of June, but July looks closer to "normal", which would be highs around 90.

A surplus of rain seems unlikely too, but there should be (in the first week) at least some rain coming through our area. Right now, looks like some .5-1" for much of Kansas within the first week of July. There are some signs of it happening 4th of July weekend, but that's a ways down the road and certainly not a guarantee.

A very different pattern - welcome rainfall

I hope you get some decent rain that we've been advertising both here and on the air. It's been a long haul this June without much moisture at all, but the tables are turning. And it sure looks like we will finish off the month with a much more active setup than what we've seen the last 3 weeks (or longer for some)

More storms coming into the evening/overnight:

Another round is likely on the way for western Kansas into Friday night. Some heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 30 mph are likely. They will keep moving east, but should weaken as they move along. And any leftovers Saturday morning will dry up pretty quickly.

Focus turns to Sunday evening-night - severe chances:

I think this area of storms will be lining up for central, southwest, and south central Kansas. It doesn't look like the northwest will see that much in the way of rain, but will continue to watch the setup. Severe storms look likely with a threat of damaging wind gusts and more heavy rain.

Once the storms get going, they will move southeast. The farther west you are, the less likely it will storm Sunday night. Another cold front should push through the area into Sunday evening to kick start the storms. There could easily be some  1-2" amounts from this round alone.

Next week-It won't be quite as hot as much of June has been so far. We have a large low pressure "trough" up in the Great Lakes and northern Plains that will help to drive more fronts down into the central Plains. There will be scattered chances for storms, mostly later in the week. And this kind of setup will keep us out of a major heat wave to finish off the month. Yes, there will be some much warmer days at the end of next week (June 25-26), but it won't last for very long before the next front gets to Kansas.

Wildfires from space & rain is coming!

There are currently a couple of big fires burning in the southwest that are quite visible from space. The three highlighted below are the Mangum, Bighorn, and Bush fires. Some are not expected to be contained until mid-late July.

Monsoon season, which typically gets going in late July through early September, can sometimes help the fire fight. Other times, the dry lightning strikes (lightning with no appreciable rainfall) can start new fires. Right now, the Southwest continues to deal with Red Flag Warnings and extreme heat. It probably doesn't surprise you that its hot there and not likely to cool down much anytime soon.

Storm chances returning Thursday - weekend:

The cold front Thursday will start developing storms after 7-8 p.m. 

There is a small chance a few storms may briefly contain some hail and/or wind, but it doesn't appear that we will have very many severe storms. Areas along and east of a line from Dodge City to Hays should have the higher storm chances.

Friday setup:

If things line up the way we think, a slow moving front that stalls over the Plains should be enough to generate more widely scattered storms on Friday. Again, severe threat is very low, but lightning and heavy downpours will be something to watch.

How much rain?
I would set my expectations around an inch or two - realizing that we are dealing with a potential of heavy rainfall in isolated areas. If you are in the right place, you could get more than 2 inches, but it is impossible to predict exactly where those areas will be. It will be very humid this weekend, so storms again Sunday night could dump heavy amounts.

Next week still has some rain potential too. Timing is still up in the air, but looking at Monday night or early Tuesday for thunderstorms. This could be another front dropping in from the northern Plains with a cool down and highs in the 80s.

Finally, signs of a change

Our third full week of June and wow, has it been hot. We haven't been setting any record high temperatures for the day, but when this month is over, I'm expecting it will be a top 20 finisher in terms of hottest Junes on record. The nighttime lows haven't been that "hot" per say, but the continuation of highs in the 90s continues to make this a very warm month.

The map below shows rainfall compared to normal for June (click to make the image larger):

We are going to see things pick up very soon. Wheat farmers probably would take a pass on the rain at this moment, but many others are cheering it on. It's hard to turn away rain when it comes your way in a hot summer.

How the pattern is shifting:

The upper high is retreating back westward, which is going to allow for the upper level winds to come back out of the northwest. A pattern like this is a forecasting challenge, but does tend to favor at least periodic chances of rain and SLIGHTLY cooler temperatures. We should remain in this kind of setup for the next 8-10 days (maybe even longer)

Rain chances begin Thursday evening:

I'm not sure this will be anything more than some "scattered" chances. There are some features in the upper atmosphere working to keep storms from becoming widespread, but I do anticipate some thunderstorms going up across Kansas. Chances are statewide, although I'm confident not everyone in our area will get a soaking.

Friday - front may stall:

The cold front from Thursday may get caught up over the central Plains, which could lead to another round of some rain and storms into Friday night. It's highly possible these storms will start in Colorado and western Kansas before moving east. Some wind and heavy rains may accompany the storms.

Weekend chances:
The details are a little murky right now, but I think we could see another batch of storms coming through Sunday night (but this chance may be focused more into central-eastern Kansas than in the west).

How much rain? It does look like the central Plains stands a good chance of getting into the 1-2" range by the end of the weekend. It is certainly not a guarantee for everyone, but this looks more promising than what we've seen lately.

Down the road (early July) - heating up again!

I think we will slowly shift back toward a high pressure over the Plains once again. So heading toward the 4th of July, I see it drying out and getting hot again.

El Nino/La Nina update & when will the pattern break

It's been awhile since we've discussed El Nino/La Nina and what the status is as we look at the ocean temperatures. Here's a reminder of what each of them are:

• El Nino - warmer than normal water in the Pacific near the Equator
• La Nina (just the opposite) - colder than normal water
• Neutral - water temperatures are within .5° of average (so you don't have either one)

Where are we now? We are considered "neutral" right now as temperatures aren't far off of average. They are a little cooler than normal, but not enough to declare it a La Nina. Here's the map of ocean temperatures:

It's important to show this because La Nina typically brings drought (or extremely dry periods) and hotter weather to Kansas in summer. Is this what's causing our hot June? It might have a little influence on it, but it's not the sole driving factor. El Nino favors more rain for the Plains, and for right now, there's no sign that we are heading toward an El Nino anytime soon.

I still remind people from time to time that the summers of 2011/2012 were La Nina summers and they were historic. Major triple digit heat and no good soaking moisture. Even though it has been dry, we still aren't heading for a setup like those summers.

June so far... HOT!

It is looking like this is the hottest start to June since 2011. As I mentioned, that was a very rough summer with 50+ 100° days in some areas. I don't think any of us want to go through that again. 

Signs of a change:

I have to admit, it will be awhile before there's any notable change. However, I'm still confident that after Father's Day, we are going to get some better chances at rain and a cool down. The longer range pattern would suggest that the high pressure system that will keep us hot and dry next week will slide back to the southwest. That will then allow for a shift in the upper air wind pattern (the jet stream) and if those winds come from the northwest, it will hopefully allow for some rain chances and cooler weather.

Here's a snapshot of temperatures compared to normal for after Father's Day weekend - looking like the heat breaks and temperatures will be much closer to average (near 90)

Have a great weekend.

Blow torch start to June - will it change?

Just over a week into June and lets face it... this feels like the middle of July. We are getting some temporary relief from a cold front racing through here today (Tuesday) and should have some decent weather again Wednesday (at least closer to normal anyway).

The first week of June has had temperatures that look like this for Wichita and Dodge City (respectively):

Rainfall tracking across Kansas will be around until early Wednesday. Most areas are going to get less than .50", but know there will be some closer to the Nebraska state line ending up with more. Even though harvest is coming, I've already heard from a few farmers saying let it rain, even if it forces them out of the field for now.

Here's what is looming in week 3 - it's more heat and sunshine.

The deep low pressure system out in the West is going to help pump the heat across the Plains. So we may have to suffer through another hot week next week. Temperatures will likely end up between 95-100.

Father's Day weekend and beyond:

TEMPERATURES (JUNE 22-27)

I think we will see a decent cool down happening throughout the middle of the country. A return to some typical June weather will likely take place with highs getting back to the 80s. And there's a decent chance we will get some rain coming back through the area. Take a look at the map below. That is showing much of the central Plains may see above normal moisture (for the period of June 22-27) - which could translate to about an inch or so of rain. Remember, this isn't a guarantee, but I'm trying to show you what we are looking at in the weather center.

RAINFALL (COMPARED TO NORMAL - JUNE 22-30)

Have a great day and try not to get carried off by the wind.

These statistics are just incredible

We mentioned it several times in May how weird it was that we weren't having severe storms. It wasn't until May 14th that Kansas recorded its first tornado. It was the fourth latest start to tornado season in Kansas. I'll be the first to admit, I didn't see this slow season coming. The warm Gulf of Mexico waters we thought would be the trigger to an active season, but as it turns out, it has been quite the opposite.

So take a look at these monumental stats that we achieved by not having very many severe storms (keep in mind, these are national stats):

• May 2020 - no "moderate" or "high" risk outlooks issued from Storm Prediction Center
• May 2020 - fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (only 10)
• May 2020 - fewest severe weather reports since May 2014
• Fewest recorded tornadoes since 1970
• Fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes (ONLY 2) since 1950

It is VERY unusual for Kansas to get through May and have so few tornado watches(click on the image to enlarge it). You'll see how Kansas has virtually no red, indicating how quiet it has been around here. Only northwest and southeast Kansas have had tornado watches this year in our state.

We have had our share of thunderstorm watches (shown below).

2020 storm reports count for Kansas:

How about these numbers?

• Just 11 tornado reports
• 147 hail reports
• 83 wind reports

The average number of tornadoes for Kansas in a year is about 80-100. 

Why so few severe weather reports? May was cooler than normal for many areas east of the Rockies. And the upper level winds were a little weaker across the Plains this year, limiting the number of rotating storms. 

I don't know if we will ever see this lack of tornadoes in May again, but at least for now (with all that is going on in the world) it is nice not having to clean up after a bunch of destructive storms.

June outlook - watching the Gulf

We are into June and already summer weather is kicking into high gear. It definitely feels like we skipped right over severe weather season and went straight for July. Hot weather in early June scares most of us into thinking ... oh no, this will be a long, hot scorching summer. I still remember the summer of 2011 and 2012 and those were some very tough stretches. This summer doesn't look anything like that.

Here's what we are expecting for June.
Temperatures: Looks like when all is said and done, this month will be warmer than normal (although the hottest weather of the month is likely what we are feeling now)

Rainfall: Near to below normal.

Temperatures in the 2nd week of June

 

I do see our temperatures cooling down in mid June (mostly highs in the 80s) and we will have some better chances for rain.

Remember that by late June, normal highs go back to upper 80s and low 90s, and I see us being close to normal late in the month.

Watching the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico:

 
What is about to emerge over the Gulf should become Cristobal (will likely become a hurricane, but unsure exactly when) This system will probably be slow to move, but should track to the north and could move back westward. I would say there is at least a 30% possibility the system could impact Kansas weather during the middle of next week. It is a little unusual to have a potential tropical system coming our way so early in the season. But anytime a system gets to the western Gulf, its a potential player for the Plains.

This is the start of hurricane season and it's already very busy. Hurricane season runs through the end of November, so this will be one to watch.