El Nino/La Nina update & when will the pattern break

It's been awhile since we've discussed El Nino/La Nina and what the status is as we look at the ocean temperatures. Here's a reminder of what each of them are:

• El Nino - warmer than normal water in the Pacific near the Equator
• La Nina (just the opposite) - colder than normal water
• Neutral - water temperatures are within .5° of average (so you don't have either one)

Where are we now? We are considered "neutral" right now as temperatures aren't far off of average. They are a little cooler than normal, but not enough to declare it a La Nina. Here's the map of ocean temperatures:

It's important to show this because La Nina typically brings drought (or extremely dry periods) and hotter weather to Kansas in summer. Is this what's causing our hot June? It might have a little influence on it, but it's not the sole driving factor. El Nino favors more rain for the Plains, and for right now, there's no sign that we are heading toward an El Nino anytime soon.

I still remind people from time to time that the summers of 2011/2012 were La Nina summers and they were historic. Major triple digit heat and no good soaking moisture. Even though it has been dry, we still aren't heading for a setup like those summers.

June so far... HOT!

It is looking like this is the hottest start to June since 2011. As I mentioned, that was a very rough summer with 50+ 100° days in some areas. I don't think any of us want to go through that again. 

Signs of a change:

I have to admit, it will be awhile before there's any notable change. However, I'm still confident that after Father's Day, we are going to get some better chances at rain and a cool down. The longer range pattern would suggest that the high pressure system that will keep us hot and dry next week will slide back to the southwest. That will then allow for a shift in the upper air wind pattern (the jet stream) and if those winds come from the northwest, it will hopefully allow for some rain chances and cooler weather.

Here's a snapshot of temperatures compared to normal for after Father's Day weekend - looking like the heat breaks and temperatures will be much closer to average (near 90)

Have a great weekend.