Finally, signs of a change

Our third full week of June and wow, has it been hot. We haven't been setting any record high temperatures for the day, but when this month is over, I'm expecting it will be a top 20 finisher in terms of hottest Junes on record. The nighttime lows haven't been that "hot" per say, but the continuation of highs in the 90s continues to make this a very warm month.

The map below shows rainfall compared to normal for June (click to make the image larger):

We are going to see things pick up very soon. Wheat farmers probably would take a pass on the rain at this moment, but many others are cheering it on. It's hard to turn away rain when it comes your way in a hot summer.

How the pattern is shifting:

The upper high is retreating back westward, which is going to allow for the upper level winds to come back out of the northwest. A pattern like this is a forecasting challenge, but does tend to favor at least periodic chances of rain and SLIGHTLY cooler temperatures. We should remain in this kind of setup for the next 8-10 days (maybe even longer)

Rain chances begin Thursday evening:

I'm not sure this will be anything more than some "scattered" chances. There are some features in the upper atmosphere working to keep storms from becoming widespread, but I do anticipate some thunderstorms going up across Kansas. Chances are statewide, although I'm confident not everyone in our area will get a soaking.

Friday - front may stall:

The cold front from Thursday may get caught up over the central Plains, which could lead to another round of some rain and storms into Friday night. It's highly possible these storms will start in Colorado and western Kansas before moving east. Some wind and heavy rains may accompany the storms.

Weekend chances:
The details are a little murky right now, but I think we could see another batch of storms coming through Sunday night (but this chance may be focused more into central-eastern Kansas than in the west).

How much rain? It does look like the central Plains stands a good chance of getting into the 1-2" range by the end of the weekend. It is certainly not a guarantee for everyone, but this looks more promising than what we've seen lately.

Down the road (early July) - heating up again!

I think we will slowly shift back toward a high pressure over the Plains once again. So heading toward the 4th of July, I see it drying out and getting hot again.