August Outlook

July is wrapping up on an unbelievable note for temperatures. Most of us don't expect a week of 80s in July, but when it shows up on your doorstep, you have to take a minute to appreciate what it is considering how hot things normally are around here.

What are the August averages?

If the weather is even close to normal in August, it tends to be one of the wetter months out of the year. I tend to think of August as a "wild" card month because it seems like we are either really dry, or getting a bunch of rain.

Rainfall in August might look like this:

As I mentioned in the last update, signs are pointing toward a wetter than normal August. Will all of it come in the first half of the month? It is entirely possible that August will start off fairly wet for much of the Plains, but I'm not expecting the upper high pressure (the heat dome as we sometimes call it) to be overly strong. So given that, I think we will continue to see decent chances at rain even later into the month too.

August temperatures:

Much of the area will have cooler than average temperatures to start the month, but that should give way to near normal highs back into the 90s fairly quickly as we move toward the second week in August.

I don't foresee any major heat waves, but for those of you who love summer weather, there's still plenty of warm days left even later in the month. Keep in mind, late August "normal" high temperatures drop back to the upper 80s.

Watching Isaias:

A difficult storm name to say and it's the earliest to reach an "I" named storm in an Atlantic hurricane season. Here's the updated track, which keeps it grazing the east coast next week. Expected to maintain its hurricane strength for several days to come as it moves northward. And there are a series of "waves" lined up and ready to move out over the Atlantic that could become tropical storms or hurricanes down the stretch. 

Early signals for August weather

The month of July is winding down and temperatures haven't been too bad by Kansas standards. We've had our fair share of humidity, which seems to be a talking point lately because it makes it so much more uncomfortable in the hottest hours of the day. However, given that we've only had one 100℉ day in Wichita and Salina to this point in the summer speaks volumes about how our summer is going. Western Kansas earlier in the month had some triple digit temperatures, but nothing out of the ordinary. And we are still below our typical average of a dozen 100℉ days in a summer.

Here's the latest look at how much rain for Wednesday/Thursday:

It's safe to set the expectations close to an inch and understand that some of us are going to get more (especially farther east in the Flint Hills) - and other areas may be disappointed in the rainfall amounts too. The trouble with forecasting the rain amounts is that in this scenario, we are dealing with "scattered" activity, and if you happen to be under one of the storms, you're going to get dumped on with 1-2" per hour.

First round of storms:
These setup along and east of I-135 and track to the east. They are not likely to be anything more than heavy rain makers as they move along.

A heavier batch of storms will be moving through western Kansas Wednesday evening and some of the stronger storms will be capable of some wind (to about 50 mph) and torrential rain. I think chances of severe storms are very low, but we could go into the night with some noisy thunderstorms in central/south central Kansas.

Thursday:
Scattered showers and storms will track from north to south and once again produce some heavier rains. We don't expect large hail or strong winds Thursday. Some street flooding might be the biggest concern.

Our first week in August looks COOL - just an extension of the unseasonably cool finish to July. When you think about what normal temperatures are in early August and what most summers are like around the Plains, this should feel pretty good.

And for those who are still struggling to get rain, August holds hope for more rainy setups. The long range outlook suggest the month ahead could be a wet one for the Plains. The image below shows rainfall compared to normal (suggesting that much of the state could finish August 1-2" above average) - more details in a later post.

Drought easing rains continue this week

You may not realize it, but we are right in the "dog days of summer", which has more to do with astronomy because of Sirius (the star) rising in the east before the sun comes up. It correlates with hot, muggy summer weather but not this year. Like everything else that has been off in 2020, our weather this week is anything but July-like.

Record rainfall from Dodge City:
It may not be a total representation of southwest Kansas rain, but generous amounts over Dodge City has the July total at 7.00", and in July that is HUGE.

• Another third of an inch will put this month in 3rd or 4th place for wettest Julys on record
• Another 2.13" will tie for wettest (the record is from 1962)

Other notable records to watch:

• Goodland (if another inch falls) could be in the top 10 wettest Julys
• Garden City (if another inch falls) will end up close to top 5 wettest

When will most of the rain arrive?
What we get Tuesday and Wednesday will be more of the scattered (or hit and miss) variety. So it's not likely that everyone will get rain. And these storms are very unlikely to be severe. Flooding is something to watch out for, especially if you end up underneath one of the heavier downpours. Least likely to get rain Tuesday - northwest Kansas. The least likely to get it Wednesday - southwest Kansas.

 Wednesday Future Track:

 

It's looking like Wednesday night and Thursday will have the most widespread coverage of rain and thunder. The upper high pressure system has been removed from the Plains, and we are waiting on some other upper level features coming from the Rockies that will set off the widespread storms. These are not going to be severe, but we will once again be in the threat for some heavier rainfall.
 

This atmosphere is so tropical that when we develop storms in this kind of environment, the rain is torrential and it doesn't take long to get get some hefty amounts. Add to that, the slow moving nature of the storms and it is something that can cause flooding.  What you see below is a forecast for Wednesday - Friday and it still appears much of the state will get another inch (possibly 2 in some spots) by the end of this week.

 

Tropical concerns ahead - signs of a change

Typically when we get to that point in summer where our weather goes boring (sunny and hot day-in-day-out), we get a chance to focus on the tropics. Lately, it has been relatively uneventful there too, but we are now seeing things picking up and likely will have some active weather for awhile.

System in the Gulf of Mexico:

This is a large area of rain and thunderstorms that will continue to move back to the northwest and approach Texas by Friday/Saturday. The system is not likely to become a hurricane (and not not even become a tropical storm), but it will have some torrential rain. There's virtually no chance it will ever make it to Kansas because the upper level winds will push it toward south Texas and it will collapse. Leftover moisture will lead to some nice monsoonal rainfall in the desert Southwest, but there's no chance its winding up here.

Gonzalo:

This should be the season's first hurricane. The season started off with a flash - you might remember Cristobal, which actually came up into Missouri and was such a close call for Kansas getting leftover rain. I don't foresee this system getting into the Plains either. It's very far south and there's even potential the system will be torn apart by stronger winds aloft as it continues to move farther west.

New drought map:

Just out Thursday morning, an updated look at drought in Kansas. And the image shown below is last weeks map. Compare the two and look at how much of southeast Kansas is dealing with "moderate" drought now. This is very interesting to think about when you consider how wet conditions were coming out of spring. Things can change quickly around here. Big rain southeast of the turnpike have been very isolated.

This map sums up July rainfall:

Worth pointing out that there are still several small pockets in the state that have missed the bigger rains. Northwest and southeast Kansas in particular have areas that are 2"+ below average for the last 30 day period. You can click on the map to make it larger.

Next week - wrapping up July with 80s:

Our final stretch in July looks cooler! Rain chances begin on Monday and should continue through at least Wednesday. Models are generous in the rainfall, with potential of another 1-2 inches on a widespread basis for the area. Storms will be around Monday afternoon and evening with a second batch possibly setting up for Tuesday evening-night. It's shaping up to be an active week, hopefully helping out areas that still need the moisture.

Temperatures cool too. I would expect some 80℉ for a good part of the week (starting on Monday for some - but Tuesday and Wednesday look milder as well).

Still time for NEOWISE - drying out soon

I did get a chance to find NEOWISE Sunday night - that's the comet visible in the northwest sky after it gets dark (I found it around 10 p.m.) I have to say it was not the easiest to spot, but that is because it is growing dim with each passing night. It will still be visible for a few more nights, but I don't know if I would bother looking for it after this week is over.

So you'll have to hurry if you want to try and catch a glimpse. If you have a pair of binoculars, that will give you an advantage. Simply look northwest and give your eyes a chance to focus - it will be dim. It's not as bright as a meteor and much more dim than most stars. Best time to look is around 10-11pm.

Rain chances fading soon:

Later this week, the upper level high pressure system will be coming back across the Plains. Although we have so many areas still needing rain, we should be feeling lucky that we aren't forecasting a bunch of 100s because that usually happens in late July when you end up right underneath of a "high" pressure heat dome.

Early August could offer up some wetter weather:
Difficult to say exactly how the pattern will setup, but down the stretch (in a few weeks) chances are we will have a better shot at some more rain coming through the Plains. It could be tropical related if something comes up through the Gulf of Mexico. If the upper high pressure system drifts far enough east, it could drive something up into our area.

And temperatures - looking to cool off:

Early August shows cooling weather across the Plains states from the Dakotas down into Texas. If we get an increase in moisture, we should see below normal temperatures (which would mean highs in the 80s).

This is hard to believe

The lack of tornadoes isn't something you want to talk about at the beginning of May, because as anybody knows, it can spike up very quick. It's even something we shy away from making a big deal out of at the beginning of June, but when you get to mid July, this is really hard to believe.

The stat we are referencing - number of tornado warnings in Kansas. All of the National Weather Service offices combined and less than 30 tornado warnings to date. Neighboring Oklahoma has issued a significant amount more, but the 2020 tornado season has been an unusual one for the Plains. 

Looking at numbers across the country, the tornado reports (not the actual number of tornado touchdowns) is just over 900. That does run below the average (which is indicated by the black line on the graph below) at this point in the season, but not enough to break monumental records. Kansas is currently setting records for lack of tornadoes, but we probably won't see that on a national level. 

Upcoming heat wave:

 

We are facing a mini heat wave setting up for the Plains as high pressure flexes its muscle over the area. This will allow temperatures to climb and there will be fewer rain chances moving into the beginning of the weekend. It's not impossible to get a few storms under the high pressure aloft, but they normally aren't widespread.

A front/pattern shift may help out:

If the high pressure "heat dome" shifts west early next week like we are seeing in the models, we could see a front sneaking into Kansas Sunday night-Monday that will help to bring temperatures back down. However, a subtle shift in the upper air winds could keep the front away from Kansas. It's something to watch, but for now, it doesn't appear that a solid string of 100° heat is coming this way.
 

A comet for your viewing pleasure

I've had a couple of question about the comet NEOWISE and what you need to do in order to see it. First, this is not the easiest thing to spot in the sky, but hopefully once you locate it, you'll find it with ease on future attempts. And maybe you'll be able to point it out to your friends and neighbors.

It is suggested that this is the brightest comet since 2013, so you'll see it with the naked eye if you look in the right spot. However, a pair of binoculars will maximize your viewing pleasure.

Up until recently, NEOWISE was mainly visible in the morning, but now it be can be spotted both morning and evening (this will be the case until July 18th)

Evening viewing:

Look to the northwest and relatively low in the sky. You want to start looking around 9:30 (about an hour after sunset). Good news is that each successive night, the comet will be higher in the sky and our moon is trending toward the "new" phase, so you aren't going to get a bunch of extra light to wash away the comets tail.

Morning viewing (best through July 18):

If this is your preferred time, you'll want to be out a few hours before sunrise and look to the NORTHEAST sky. It's going to be extra hard to get a picture with a mobile phone, because the photo will likely be very grainy. The comet will be VERY close to the horizon, so make sure you are looking low in the sky. As we get closer to July 18, it will be even closer to the horizon.

Another round of storms Tuesday evening-night:

This batch of rain will develop along and just behind a cold front that will be in the area. Some hail and wind gusts to 65 or 70 mph appear possible as the storms move along. They will start in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas and then track east-northeast. Could be some heavier rainfall in southwest and central Kansas before tapering down by daybreak Wednesday.

Rain fades - heat builds

We will be discussing less rain and more heat at the end of the week. A highly advertised "high" pressure system will setup over the area Friday - early next week. Hot weather expands in these cases and this thing might be VERY stubborn to relax. So a heat wave looks like it will set in and continue through much of our third full week of July.

Hot hot - for how long?

If you picked up some rain Thursday or Friday, you have to count your blessings on this one because many areas were missed, or didn't get enough to do much of any good.

Friday morning storms dumped these rainfall amounts:

A weekend cold front will sweep through the area Saturday afternoon and briefly lower the humidity. I think Sunday will feel pretty good around here even though most of us will still hit 90+.
There will be some thunderstorms (isolated most likely) for western Kansas Sunday evening. These storms could develop in an area that starts to see the humidity increasing at the end of the weekend. It's expected they will move south/southeast.

Next week just looks hot, but not without some brief breaks mixed in. Temperatures will be climbing on Monday, but Tuesday still looks like the scorcher. Many areas will see 100℉+, so please plan ahead, especially for those without AC.

A cold front enters the picture Tuesday night and Wednesday, which may help out. Latest models are hinting at some thunderstorm potential for western and northern Kansas if the heat can break down long enough to allow them to form. If the storms do form, it will help to shove the cold front to southern Kansas and it may not be so bad around here Wednesday. Stay tuned.

Unfortunately, the overall long term pattern is not favorable for a substantial change anytime soon. The upper high pressure is going to position over the central Plains for awhile, and may wobble east or west later in the month. But I don't see a hope of it breaking down yet.

So late July temperatures (compared to average) all look above normal.

And your rainfall map looks like this for late July:

Have a good one!

Severe chances next few days

Severe weather chances return to Kansas, but as dry as it is for many areas, you might be glad to just have a chance for some rain. We are going to get a new look at the drought monitor on Thursday, but I think we are only going to find that drought conditions are more widespread. We just aren't getting rain on a consistent basis (and it hasn't been very widespread either).

Wednesday (today):

I would expect storms to begin near the Kansas/Nebraska state line and move east. Once we get late into the night, they will take a turn to the southeast. Strongest storms overnight will be capable of wind gusts to 50-55 mph. Hail threat should diminish quickly after sunset.

Thursday Morning - leftovers
Remnants of storms will be moving out quickly and then the atmosphere will recharge for another batch of scattered storms into the evening. There is some potential of a few severe storms, but not on a widespread scale.

Rainfall forecast:

Remember, this just gives us some idea of the amounts we might pick up. It won't be exact, but I would set my expectations for .50" and realize that it could be more if a heavy thunderstorm moves right over your location. We've seen some 2-3" rains lately under the heaviest storms, but that hasn't happened for everyone.

Looking down the road - Next week temperatures are all WELL above normal. I expect several days with chances of hitting 100° (or hotter). The main storm track will continue to stay north of Kansas, keep much of the rain and "cooler" weather in the northern Plains.

Into late July - more heat:

Models aren't suggesting any radical shift in the upper air pattern, so we will head into late July with more hot weather for the Plains. July 18-25 temperatures look like this. Remember, the orange/red colors indicate "above normal" temperatures and this time of year, that easily means 95°+