Tropical concerns ahead - signs of a change

Typically when we get to that point in summer where our weather goes boring (sunny and hot day-in-day-out), we get a chance to focus on the tropics. Lately, it has been relatively uneventful there too, but we are now seeing things picking up and likely will have some active weather for awhile.

System in the Gulf of Mexico:

This is a large area of rain and thunderstorms that will continue to move back to the northwest and approach Texas by Friday/Saturday. The system is not likely to become a hurricane (and not not even become a tropical storm), but it will have some torrential rain. There's virtually no chance it will ever make it to Kansas because the upper level winds will push it toward south Texas and it will collapse. Leftover moisture will lead to some nice monsoonal rainfall in the desert Southwest, but there's no chance its winding up here.

Gonzalo:

This should be the season's first hurricane. The season started off with a flash - you might remember Cristobal, which actually came up into Missouri and was such a close call for Kansas getting leftover rain. I don't foresee this system getting into the Plains either. It's very far south and there's even potential the system will be torn apart by stronger winds aloft as it continues to move farther west.

New drought map:

Just out Thursday morning, an updated look at drought in Kansas. And the image shown below is last weeks map. Compare the two and look at how much of southeast Kansas is dealing with "moderate" drought now. This is very interesting to think about when you consider how wet conditions were coming out of spring. Things can change quickly around here. Big rain southeast of the turnpike have been very isolated.

This map sums up July rainfall:

Worth pointing out that there are still several small pockets in the state that have missed the bigger rains. Northwest and southeast Kansas in particular have areas that are 2"+ below average for the last 30 day period. You can click on the map to make it larger.

Next week - wrapping up July with 80s:

Our final stretch in July looks cooler! Rain chances begin on Monday and should continue through at least Wednesday. Models are generous in the rainfall, with potential of another 1-2 inches on a widespread basis for the area. Storms will be around Monday afternoon and evening with a second batch possibly setting up for Tuesday evening-night. It's shaping up to be an active week, hopefully helping out areas that still need the moisture.

Temperatures cool too. I would expect some 80℉ for a good part of the week (starting on Monday for some - but Tuesday and Wednesday look milder as well).