Early signals for August weather

The month of July is winding down and temperatures haven't been too bad by Kansas standards. We've had our fair share of humidity, which seems to be a talking point lately because it makes it so much more uncomfortable in the hottest hours of the day. However, given that we've only had one 100℉ day in Wichita and Salina to this point in the summer speaks volumes about how our summer is going. Western Kansas earlier in the month had some triple digit temperatures, but nothing out of the ordinary. And we are still below our typical average of a dozen 100℉ days in a summer.

Here's the latest look at how much rain for Wednesday/Thursday:

It's safe to set the expectations close to an inch and understand that some of us are going to get more (especially farther east in the Flint Hills) - and other areas may be disappointed in the rainfall amounts too. The trouble with forecasting the rain amounts is that in this scenario, we are dealing with "scattered" activity, and if you happen to be under one of the storms, you're going to get dumped on with 1-2" per hour.

First round of storms:
These setup along and east of I-135 and track to the east. They are not likely to be anything more than heavy rain makers as they move along.

A heavier batch of storms will be moving through western Kansas Wednesday evening and some of the stronger storms will be capable of some wind (to about 50 mph) and torrential rain. I think chances of severe storms are very low, but we could go into the night with some noisy thunderstorms in central/south central Kansas.

Thursday:
Scattered showers and storms will track from north to south and once again produce some heavier rains. We don't expect large hail or strong winds Thursday. Some street flooding might be the biggest concern.

Our first week in August looks COOL - just an extension of the unseasonably cool finish to July. When you think about what normal temperatures are in early August and what most summers are like around the Plains, this should feel pretty good.

And for those who are still struggling to get rain, August holds hope for more rainy setups. The long range outlook suggest the month ahead could be a wet one for the Plains. The image below shows rainfall compared to normal (suggesting that much of the state could finish August 1-2" above average) - more details in a later post.