Wet AND cool weather alert

 Here's hoping you have a great weekend and get a chance to enjoy some cooler weather. 

Just a quick update on what's coming this way through the weekend and early next week. Our forecast thinking hasn't changed much, but wanted to get out ahead of the rain that's on the way. It's not all going to come at one time and I know some of you will get to the end of the weekend and be VERY disappointed in your rain amounts. HOWEVER - we are seeing some encouraging signs of what's coming next Tuesday.

Saturday morning-mid afternoon:

These storms will be scattered, meaning not everyone will get a good amount of rain. The storms will move to the east and eventually turn and develop to the southeast.

Early Monday:

As we've been advertising, another cold front is going to swing through the area and slow down over Kansas. Temperatures will be cooled off even more and another round of rain should target all but far WESTERN Kansas. Heaviest rain looks to be north of I-70 and across the eastern half of the state.

Tuesday: 

This is the BEST chance of widespread, soaking moisture for Kansas. There is a slow moving low that is going to move into the central Plains. This should provide a good soaking and THIS is when we should get the 1-2" rainfall. (Remember, the image shown below is a combination of all the different rain chances and likely won't all come at one time)

And that's not all - but it is highly possible that temperatures may not get out of the 60s for highs due to the rain. Needless to say, September may start off with a bang when it comes to cool weather in Kansas. 

Laura makes history AND rain chances ramping up soon

The devastation from Hurricane Laura is something we will hear about for days and a storm that will join the list of names that are "retired" after a season ends. We don't normally see hurricanes grow to such strength, but Laura is one of nine storms to reach the coast with 150 mph winds (or greater) AND record setting in the fact it makes for seven named storms to hit the US before the end of August. 

Here's the list of storms that have hit the US with 150+ mph winds:

• Michael (2018)
• Charley (2004)
• Andrew (1992)
• Camille (1969)
• Labor Day (1935)
• Freeport (1932)
• Florida Keys (1919)
• Indianola (1886)
• Last Island (1856)

Laura's path resembles that of Rita from 2005:

Rita was a category 3 storm when it made landfall, but it did reach category 5 before it did reach the coast. It's eerie just how similar the tracks were to each other. 

Why is the right side of a hurricane so much more destructive?

 

The added impact of the hurricane winds blowing in the SAME direction the storm is moving makes the right side even more dangerous. The left side has hurricane winds blowing against the direction it's moving, diminishing some of the winds power. However, anyone that is within 50-80 miles of the eye wall usually experience some pretty destructive forces of wind and storm surge.

Latest on rain chances for Kansas:

We start with the chances Friday night/early Saturday and the highest rain potential will be in southwest-west central. This might be a case of seeing more lightning and hearing thunder than actually getting rain. BUT - we will appreciate whatever rain we get.

 

Sunday night-Monday have chances too: These will be focused more over north central and eastern Kansas (so the west isn't likely to get much at all)

And another chance Tuesday?

Our computer models have had a very difficult time getting a handle on what happens after Monday. However, I think we will have another chance for rain Tuesday over much of the state. Right now I think this may be the more widespread chance of rain, but the northwest may get left out. 

Latest look at how much: This is for Friday night THROUGH Tuesday night (this is not all going to come at one time, so please be patient as we wait for these cold fronts to come through and help us out.

 

Have a great day.

The advertised change is coming - cooler weather AND rain

I'm getting multiple requests for rain these days as the moisture from July has suddenly evaporated into the August heat. Last week we hinted that a change would be coming down the road and our confidence is growing that a MUCH cooler pattern is about to evolve. 

Tropical track - Laura moves north:

The water temperatures are between 85-90° and I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Laura goes to Category 3 (considered "major" status) with winds of 111 mph. 

Laura later in the week goes through Arkansas and then curves to the northeast. Unless there is some incredible shift in the track (westward), we won't likely get any of that soaking moisture.

First cold front coming Friday night-early Saturday:

This front isn't strong at all, but should help to set off some storms:

* these will start over northern Kansas and then develop to the south

* storms will probably remain scattered without BIG rains (likely less than an inch for the areas that even get rain)

*front is weak, so a big drop in temperatures doesn't appear that likely for the weekend

Second front arrives early next week:

* this front comes in Monday, starting a big drop in the temperatures by Monday evening

* storms chances increase significantly, especially for areas of central and eastern Kansas

* Highs falling into the 70s look likely by Tuesday  - other days next week should be 80s

* humidity gets knocked WAY down - it will feel every bit like a fall afternoon 

* rainfall could be around .50-1" in several spots (perhaps more), but I don't want to get hopes up too much. 

 Is this something that will hang around:

It does look as if this pattern will continue through the first 10 days of September, so I would look for highs to be in the 80s with lows in the 50s/60s. Should feel pretty nice around here - now let's hope we get some rain. Stay tuned.

A shift in the pattern coming into view

Thanks for spending a few minutes here reading my thoughts on what happens down the stretch. We are moving into the home stretch of a dry August for much of Kansas and I've already heard from some farmers that had really good rains in July - now needing another round. 

Take a look at the following maps:

This is rain (compared to normal for the last 30 days):

The map below is rain (compared to normal for the last 60 days):

We are nearly 80 days into meteorological summer (June 1st - today) and here are some numbers for the major reporting stations around Kansas. It is a bit strange to see western Kansas posting higher numbers than what is reported in the east (sometimes it goes that way), but the drought is not over with for western Kansas yet. 

What's next? Temperatures above normal - The pressure cooking high pressure in the west is about to move (finally) and start breaking down. We will see it wobble east a bit this weekend, which means Kansas will get hotter soon. As it does so,  you will see the record heat in the west ease, while the Plains warms. This is NOT a setup that will lead to widespread 100s (I'm confident those days are behind us), but there will be plenty of 90s day-in-and day-out.

Rain chances should increase - We should be moving into a period at the end of the month and early September that could bring some rains back to the Plains. If the upper high breaks down like I'm expecting in about a week, we should see an increasing threat of storms throughout the area. Will it be days of rain chances or just a night or two? It's not very clear now, but at least we have something down the stretch that has our attention.

Have a good day.

Here comes our early fall preview

Would you order up another summer like the one we are having now? It's not uncommon to have some cooler "days" in summer, but weeks of it? We had that big cool spell in late July and it carried over into August. A few hot days sprinkled in from time to time, but next week looks more like late September or early October. The humidity is going to drop, which suggests it will be even more comfortable. Call your boss and take next week off. 😉

While we enjoy the cool weather, the pattern is going to be unforgiving for fire fighters in the west. Right under the dome of "high" pressure, more hot, windy, and dry weather is likely. Most areas east of the Rockies will be in a position to have cooler than normal weather. 

Rainfall update:

Here's a preview of how much rain some areas could get next week:

There will be chances for at least some showers in western Kansas during our third full week of the month. Getting out of drought takes time and we have peeled back some of the worst of the conditions, but still have a ways to go. 

Are we slipping right into fall now?

Well, not exactly. However, threats of triple digit heat look like they will be behind us. The upper high pressure (which is where the major heat will be) continues to show signs of hanging out to our west, which could get us to early September without major heat. It becomes more and more unlikely to have 100s once September rolls around. 

Have a great day.

Smoke coming our way!

 You'll want to be on the lookout for increased chances of "enhanced" red sunsets in the coming days with smoke coming from wildfires west of us. Right now, there is a BIG fire burning north of Grand Junction, Colorado and that smoke plume has gone through the Denver area. The Pine Gulch fire (as of this writing) has consumed roughly 40,000 acres, with the cause determined to be a lightning strike. 

Nearby, there is the Grizzly Creek fire, which is much smaller (around 2,000 acres burned), but neither one of them are fully contained. 

Upper level winds across Colorado continued to be aimed right at Kansas (almost nearly straight west to east), so that smoke will be coming across Kansas soon. It does get dispersed as it moves along, but it could be enough to cause some extra red sunrise/sunsets the next couple of days. 

Have a great day. Tomorrow I'll go into more detail about weekend rain chances and the much cooler weather still coming our way next week.

Another summer surprise - time for the Perseids

Hope your week is off to a great start and that you are staying healthy. We have a great celestial show planned for the next few nights (if you can't get out and view it Tuesday night-early Wednesday). This is the annual Perseid meteor shower and here's what you need to know:

• Best viewing is around 11 pm Tuesday night (Aug. 11) 
• Moon comes up around 12:19 and although it is last quarter moon, it may still wash out some of the more faint meteors.
• Look toward the northeast if you can - away from city lights
• In an ideal spot, one could see up to 100 meteors per hours, but a more realistic expectation is around 40-50
• Viewing happens with the naked eye - unlike the recent comet - these should be easier to spot

Another summer cool spell?

The remainder of this week is hot - no doubt about it. And we really can't complain too much because every time we start to hit that stretch of well above normal temperatures, we find something that will help to change it.

We expect the upper high to shift back to southern California and Arizona next week and we are right back to a forecast of highs in the 80s! I DO NOT think it will be quite as cool as some of the weather we had late in July, but it does look like a pattern that will bring "cooler than average" temperatures. 

How about rain?

There will be off and on chances setting up for the Plains - nothing that stands out as a big, widespread soaking. However, scattered summer thunderstorms are really hard for the extended models to get a grasp on, so we can't jump to conclusions just yet. If you are in dire need of rain, there will continue to be chances, but on more of a scattered setup. I think we could be look at some chances over the weekend (with the front coming in) - possibly Saturday and Sunday nights. 

Back to summer setup & mark your calendars

We are experiencing one of the coolest starts to August in years, and I know we aren't very far into the month, but this is remarkable. It's one thing to have highs in the 80s, but it's another to have low humidity and overnight temperatures down in the 50s. Those combinations are very hard to come by in August, but it has made for an interesting start to the month. In fact, we are experiencing one of the coolest starts to August in over 15 years. The average temperature in Wichita is 73°

This is why we've been so cool:

The upper high pressure has been parked over the desert Southwest. It's been slowing the monsoon moisture a bit, but we've been benefiting from having the upper level winds come out of the northwest. That's driving the cooler weather down into our area and allowing for temperatures to be well below normal for early August. One the east side of this big batch of cooler weather, that's where the tropical storm (Isaias) was scooped up and pushed farther north.

 

Here's what comes next:

We are moving toward a period that will likely be hot and humid without big, widespread rains for our area. The upper high pressure is moving into Texas and we will be on the northern fringe of it, so we are guaranteed to have some much warmer weather down the stretch. 

However - because we are NOT right under the "high" itself, we aren't likely to have a major heat wave with a bunch of 100s. Here is the temperature outlook for the next 7-14 days:

Mark your calendars for the Perseid meteor shower - next week:

We will still have some moonlight that might wash out some of the faint meteors, but the viewing should still be good. This tends to be one of the better meteor showers during the year, so try and find some time to get away from city lights and enjoy. I don't think the weather will be a big problem next week (in terms of thunderstorms getting in the way)