Trending into a warmer setup for now

After a busy start to the week with two winter systems, things are about to take a turn for the warmer around the Plains. We still aren't out of this busy pattern just yet as we have our sights focused on a weekend storm that will be racing through the region Saturday. And there's a chance we will have some thunderstorms around here too - fitting for Kansas, right (in January)?

Here's a preview of how the setup will look for the end of this week. The jet stream winds (at 30,000 feet) are about to push back to the northern US and allow the milder air to return. Just look at the forecast temperatures by Friday.

 

The late-week rally in temperatures is a direct result of the next storm that will push toward Kansas on Saturday. As the storm comes in, it will run into 40 and 50 degree temperatures, so there's no reason to worry about poor travel conditions in Kansas over the weekend. Even behind the storm, temperatures are not going to drop much, so Sunday will likely still have highs in the 40s and 50s.  

Potential rainfall amounts look like this for Saturday - most of the heavier totals will probably escape to the east, but recent model runs have shifted the rain back westward just a bit. I still don't think areas west of Hays or Dodge City will get much of anything for the weekend event.

February is going to have a WARM start - much of the area will likely get some 50° weather to start next week. That's sometimes pretty hard to squeeze in at the halfway point of winter. 

Are we on track for another winter storm next week? This is something to consider as forecast models are suggesting yet another potent setup coming in from the west may favor a big surge of colder air meeting up with Gulf of Mexico moisture. 

Have a terrific day.

Weekend storm update - staying active for awhile

The weekend system is still on track to bring a variety of weather to the area, with some getting rain, others getting drizzle, and snow is going to show up by Sunday night. As is normally the case with winter systems, there are a lot of variables and it makes for a challenging forecast. 

Saturday - brief encounter with a wintry mix

 

This will form Saturday morning as higher humidity surges north and runs into temperatures that will be in the 20s. It may only be around for 2 or 3 hours, so heads up if you plan to travel down I-70.

Sunday - this is when the main storm will get going with drizzle, rain, and by Sunday night, the snow chances increase. Most of the action through mid-afternoon will be focused over central and eastern Kansas with some drizzle or light rain. 

Sunday night, western Kansas should prepare for some snow to move from southwest to northeast. The rain snow line will likely end up in central Kansas later Sunday night. It will try to push east heading into Monday, but I don't think there will be much snow for areas along I-135.

Early Monday - snow will be winding down from south to north as the main event begins pulling away. Models are suggesting that by the afternoon, it will all be over. 

What becomes of the Tuesday/Wednesday storm?

This isn't looking all that impressive, but not something we can completely brush over. As I mentioned in the previous post, because it is so closely following on the heels of the Monday storm, there isn't much time to reload with humidity. It may turn out this is nothing more than some drizzle or light snow. However, we still have several more model runs to look at before it actually arrives. 

Have a great weekend and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Rain and snow chances showing up soon

It is still impressive (but not completely surprising) that we have yet to have some true, Arctic air invade the Plains this month. Back in November when making the winter outlook, I didn't think January would be that cold. Then, at the beginning of the month, it started to look like we might get hit with some MUCH colder air late in the month. I'm still not convinced it will happen before February.  

There is a real lack of snow cover between Kansas and the Canadian border, so air is warming as it dives south. The map below shows Iowa with 1-4 inches of snow cover (melting quickly), but the Dakotas have very little right now.

 

The fact we are in late January and haven't had a single day with a high temperature below 30° is astonishing. Western Kansas has had a couple of them since December 1st, but not many. Looking back two winters, you'll see that we had a bunch of days that had highs in the teens and 20s. Those kinds of temperatures would signal a visit of Arctic air. 

 

Here are the numbers:

While we wait to see if and when the bitter cold will show, let's look at these next systems coming out of the southwest that may impact the Plains. 

The first system arrives Saturday-early Monday. It will have an AMPLE supply of Gulf moisture, but the areas favored to get rain might end up being central-east (not in the west). Notice how the deck of clouds stretches from the Texas Gulf coast all the way into the Dakotas. When we say the Gulf is open for "business", this is a classic example. 

There's a chance for some snow too Sunday night- Monday with some accumulations possible. We will have a better handle on this by Saturday or Sunday. As of this writing, I am not thinking huge amounts of snow, but the current forecast track would favor western and northern Kansas for the accumulations.

Another system could pass through the area on Tuesday/Wednesday. As it arrives, it may end up being cold enough for light snow to pass through the Plains. It's early, but light accumulations will be possible if what we are seeing in the data holds up. This is a system that will track in from the southwest too (normally a favored track for heavy snow in the Plains). However, because this storm comes right on the heels of the previously mentioned storm, it may have a limited supply of moisture. It's hard to really nail that down now because this is a storm that hasn't even formed yet.

Seasonal snow accumulation looks like this right now (since December 1st) - most areas are right on target or slightly above, but it looks like Concordia is running well below normal. I'm expecting that in the next week, many areas will be adding to these totals with more snow soon to arrive.

 

 Have a great day.

Some active weather on the horizon

Kansas is known for being windy, but when the gusts start getting above 45 or 50 mph, I think we can all agree it's too much. The huge low pressure spinning in the upper Midwest is very intense as indicated by the solid, black lines (called isobars) and they are packed tight. That suggests the difference in air pressure is significant over a relatively small distance. Remember, wind goes counter-clockwise around the low which is why we've had a northwest wind the last couple of days.

The New Year's Day storm was only for eastern Kansas, so we haven't seen much moisture (on a statewide scale) move through the area since early December. A new drought map was released Thursday to show conditions are still in dire shape for western and northern Kansas. We do need some rain or a heavy wet snow to help out. A good rain event can be really hard to come by this time of year. 

 

Here's what the setup looks like:

 

A storm will setup in northern Mexico or southern Arizona around Tuesday night/Wednesday. If that storm can hold together (and not dissolve as it moves into the Plains), we should have a chance for rain and snow. There is a possibility that this moisture goes south of Kansas... that is what the models were showing just a few days ago. So we can't get overly excited about the storm just yet. At this time, it sure looks like some light rain and snow will both be possible, but check back as we get closer.

Second potential storm next weekend:

On the heels of one system Thursday, another system may come in from the west and impact the Plains states around Jan. 23/24. Again, timing can be suspect when you are a week out, but models continue to suggest a rain/snow maker may setup somewhere in the area. 

Will one of these storms finally latch on to Arctic air? It sure looks like that will happen, so get ready for the end of January to be colder than normal (which should mean highs in the 20s/30s)

 

Rain/Snow chances are cutoff for now

The average snowfall around Kansas in January ranges from roughly 3 inches to almost 6, but we are moving into the kind of pattern that isn't likely to bring moisture to the area anytime soon. 

Here are the average snowfall amounts for January:

Upper level winds are going to be coming out of the northwest, which is actually fairly common during January. In this kind of setup, cold fronts will periodically come racing across the area and change the temperatures, but northwest winds tend to be very dry. The available Gulf of Mexico moisture will be pushed to the southeast and the Plains will likely be pretty uneventful for now.

We continue to expect Arctic air soon and to be clear, it IS showing up on the maps over the next couple of weeks. However, it's not that likely to invade Kansas in the immediate future. It could still be another 10-14 days away.  

The Arctic Oscillation "AO" still looks negative rolling into the latter part of the month. Remember, when we see a negative AO, the trend is usually to allow the bitter cold from Canada and the Arctic Circle to start pushing farther south. We still haven't seen much of that this winter.

Moving into the second half of January:

I'm beginning to think we will be near to slightly below normal when all is averaged out. We could very well be on the western fringe of most of the bitter cold that dives across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. But a prolonged period of cold doesn't seem that likely at this point. 

More snow? Just for fun, I'm posting the "32 day snow outlook" off a model that we have access to. There's nothing earth shattering in it, but late January and into February should be turning active again for the Plains. I think we will still have plenty more chances of snow on the way heading into early February.

 

 

January outlook - signs of Arctic air

The middle of winter is still weeks away and January can be a very LONG month if it's cold for long periods at a time. January 2020 was warmer than normal for almost ALL of the country (see the image below), and we had just one decent snow event at the end of the month.

Here is what I'm thinking for the remainder of January. 

Now - Jan. 17: Chilly, but not Arctic

This isn't going to be anything surprising for most of you. We will have some cold of course, but nothing out of the ordinary for January. Average highs are in the low 40s now. A few of the days between now and the end of next week might end up below normal, but not by a large margin. It will mainly depend on how much cloud cover we have on different days. It's not exactly what most would consider "warm", but compared to what it could be like, it really doesn't look that cold for the next couple of weeks.

Jan: 18-30: Potential is growing for an Arctic blast

 

The second half of January does have a chance of being colder than normal with Arctic air diving south toward Kansas. Just look at the map showing the average temperatures from January 24-29th and much of the central Plains and northern Plains are likely going colder than normal (even MUCH colder along the US/Canada border) This may translate to highs in the 20s for a few days with lows down in the single digits. That would make it some of the coldest of the season so far.

Snow/Moisture chances:

The pattern is still pretty active for the next couple of weeks. There are at least two storms to watch in the next 10 days. The first rolls through Wednesday/Thursday with VERY light precipitation.

 

 The second feature coming in for the weekend should bring some snow back through southwest Kansas and into parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Best chances for measurable snow will likely be closer to Elkhart, Liberal (generally southwest of Dodge City).

How much snow is left to fall in January? Tough call, but I wouldn't be surprised if the end of the month is active and that could very well carry over into early February. Most of the Plains states still have a good chance at more snow later in the month, but specifics are next to impossible this far out. Stay tuned.