Rain and snow chances showing up soon

It is still impressive (but not completely surprising) that we have yet to have some true, Arctic air invade the Plains this month. Back in November when making the winter outlook, I didn't think January would be that cold. Then, at the beginning of the month, it started to look like we might get hit with some MUCH colder air late in the month. I'm still not convinced it will happen before February.  

There is a real lack of snow cover between Kansas and the Canadian border, so air is warming as it dives south. The map below shows Iowa with 1-4 inches of snow cover (melting quickly), but the Dakotas have very little right now.

 

The fact we are in late January and haven't had a single day with a high temperature below 30° is astonishing. Western Kansas has had a couple of them since December 1st, but not many. Looking back two winters, you'll see that we had a bunch of days that had highs in the teens and 20s. Those kinds of temperatures would signal a visit of Arctic air. 

 

Here are the numbers:

While we wait to see if and when the bitter cold will show, let's look at these next systems coming out of the southwest that may impact the Plains. 

The first system arrives Saturday-early Monday. It will have an AMPLE supply of Gulf moisture, but the areas favored to get rain might end up being central-east (not in the west). Notice how the deck of clouds stretches from the Texas Gulf coast all the way into the Dakotas. When we say the Gulf is open for "business", this is a classic example. 

There's a chance for some snow too Sunday night- Monday with some accumulations possible. We will have a better handle on this by Saturday or Sunday. As of this writing, I am not thinking huge amounts of snow, but the current forecast track would favor western and northern Kansas for the accumulations.

Another system could pass through the area on Tuesday/Wednesday. As it arrives, it may end up being cold enough for light snow to pass through the Plains. It's early, but light accumulations will be possible if what we are seeing in the data holds up. This is a system that will track in from the southwest too (normally a favored track for heavy snow in the Plains). However, because this storm comes right on the heels of the previously mentioned storm, it may have a limited supply of moisture. It's hard to really nail that down now because this is a storm that hasn't even formed yet.

Seasonal snow accumulation looks like this right now (since December 1st) - most areas are right on target or slightly above, but it looks like Concordia is running well below normal. I'm expecting that in the next week, many areas will be adding to these totals with more snow soon to arrive.

 

 Have a great day.