Rain/Snow chances are cutoff for now

The average snowfall around Kansas in January ranges from roughly 3 inches to almost 6, but we are moving into the kind of pattern that isn't likely to bring moisture to the area anytime soon. 

Here are the average snowfall amounts for January:

Upper level winds are going to be coming out of the northwest, which is actually fairly common during January. In this kind of setup, cold fronts will periodically come racing across the area and change the temperatures, but northwest winds tend to be very dry. The available Gulf of Mexico moisture will be pushed to the southeast and the Plains will likely be pretty uneventful for now.

We continue to expect Arctic air soon and to be clear, it IS showing up on the maps over the next couple of weeks. However, it's not that likely to invade Kansas in the immediate future. It could still be another 10-14 days away.  

The Arctic Oscillation "AO" still looks negative rolling into the latter part of the month. Remember, when we see a negative AO, the trend is usually to allow the bitter cold from Canada and the Arctic Circle to start pushing farther south. We still haven't seen much of that this winter.

Moving into the second half of January:

I'm beginning to think we will be near to slightly below normal when all is averaged out. We could very well be on the western fringe of most of the bitter cold that dives across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. But a prolonged period of cold doesn't seem that likely at this point. 

More snow? Just for fun, I'm posting the "32 day snow outlook" off a model that we have access to. There's nothing earth shattering in it, but late January and into February should be turning active again for the Plains. I think we will still have plenty more chances of snow on the way heading into early February.