La Nina may continue to fall & winter + 30 day rain outlook

It's been awhile since I've posted anything related to El Nino or La Nina. And it's becoming apparent where we are heading as fall approaches and then questions start to swirl about what kind of winter we may have. 

Here's what the water temperatures are doing now:

As a refresher, La Nina refers to water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific that are colder than normal, while El Nino is the opposite. The average temperature has to be .5° Celsius either above or below for a period of at least 3 months in order to qualify. The table below shows the last 10 years of El Nino (shown in red) with La Nina (in blue)

It was about a year ago, we started slipping into a La Nina and it held on through winter and weakened a bit in spring. Now, as fall approaches it's looking more apparent that another La Nina is developing. Do you remember what happened last fall in a La Nina? Here's a reminder:

October was cooler than normal and we had an early season snow late in the month! Most of the month was DRY.

 

November flipped around and was quite warm - but we did get more moisture:

This fall could be very different. There is not a "one size fits all" approach when it comes to La Nina autumn for Kansas. However, consider this trend for a moment:

• January - WARM
• February - Record COLD
• March - Warm
• April - Warm
• May - Cold
• June - Normal
• July - Below Normal
• August - (so far) - Normal

More times than not, our average monthly temperature has been below normal. Keep that in mind as the fall months draw near. We can't say yet if we will have an early frost or not, but my gut feeling is that it will be right on time (or maybe a week or two early). Be sure to check back.

We are still optimistic about rain in the week ahead!

Some rain is forecast for Kansas Monday/Tuesday, and then the setup late in the week looks more premising for more areas of the state. 

 

There's a strong cold front that should be on the way, and if all goes right, it would be a widespread setup for moisture. I know the situation is still pretty rough around the state - we need the precip. I'll leave you with this map - the 30 day rainfall outlook for the Plains. It takes us to Sep. 13 and suggests that we may have a decent chance of getting above normal moisture during the period. Cross your fingers: