August outlook - will the new month be any different

As we roll into August, most of the state by this point in the season has already had it's average share of 100s for a summer. However, if you've lived here for awhile, you know there will be more 100s in the upcoming month. It almost always seems to be the case. This year won't be any different. 

The drought map to end July looks like this:

The "exceptional" drought covers a large area that should get some rain to end the month. I don't know if it will be enough rain to remove that classification, but it will be enough to help ease some of the stress. 

Here are your August averages - it does tend to be one of the wetter months out of the year for several locations:

Here is August as a whole (for temperatures):

August moisture doesn't look promising:

We do know that whatever rain we get, it won't be in the first part of the month. A dominant high pressure system is going to be meandering through the Plains, and eventually the northern Plains. This can be really frustrating for many different reasons. Day-after-day of hot weather and little or no chance of rain. Fall crops have already suffered (and could be a total loss for some). 

Summer can be a tough season when the rains aren't coming our way. This is classic La Niña - hot, dry summers. 

You'll see in the ocean temperature anomalies, there's still a lot of cool water gathered near the equator. This La Nina will likely hold on into the winter season. 

I will say this - our longer range models don't show cool weather very well. Breaks in the heat will come, but those too may not show up until mid/late August (maybe in time for kids going back to school)

Have a great day.