Summer (officially) is just getting started and we know the upcoming month will be hot, but if you have a great memory and recall the summer of 2011/2012 - that was rough. Some parts of the state had 40-50+ 100° days and so much of our vegetation dried out and was baked to a crisp. It was a rough summer and it happened in a La Niña episode (which also happens to be what we are in now). The actual number is .6°C below average - making it a weaker La Nina at the moment.
Average temperatures and rainfall in Kansas this month look like this:
July temperature outlook (the month as a whole):
This is not going to be a cool month by any means, but I also don't think it will be full of 100s either. Models have really struggled to see the "cool" spells that pop up from time to time, and I think there will be another chance of having some heat relief by mid month. I think I mentioned a few weeks back that the upper "high" should retreat west, but will it stay there for very long? That's going to be the secret to us getting some rain too. If we can get the active weather off the Rockies and into the Plains, we'd be set for some rain and cooler weather. Right now, I think the month as a whole will be warmer than average, but again, mid/late July should have some relief.
July rainfall:
Summer monsoon will provide its usual rains to Colorado, New Mexico, and perhaps even Arizona. That area depends on the seasonal shift in the winds to bring the rain and they should get some of that in the upcoming month.
Have a great day. When we see some bigger changes showing up, we'll be sure to let you know.
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