How does it compare - summer of 2011/12 to now

When the talk of "hot and dry" summers come up, there are some years that people quickly recall. Seems to me that 2012, 2011, and 1980 are the ones that get a mention. We know there are several other summers that were quite hot (and bone dry), but those are the ones that I hear about from time to time.

I remember 2011 and 2012 quite well because everything dried up and it was day after day of 100° weather. We haven't had that this summer, even though much of the state has had roughly twice as many 100s. My apologies for only pulling Wichita numbers here (due to time constraints), but we will look at other areas as time allows. 

I was a little surprised to see how much more rain fell in 2011 - the summer that had WAY more 100s than this summer. However, look at the difference in moisture. Nearly twice as much rain as what we've had this year. 

Here was the drought map from late August in 2011 (reminder that dark red is "exceptional" drought): 

The summer of 2012 (across the US) was hotter, even though the number of 100s did come down a bit, it was really dry (similar to this summer). Here was the drought map from late August in 2012:

Southwest Kansas continues to be in very rough shape. Even though yearly rainfall numbers aren't too far off the mark for central and eastern Kansas, the west is still hurting. Garden City hasn't even recorded 4 inches of rain for the YEAR! Average moisture to this point would be closer to 15". It's been a tough time in the southwest. 

What's ahead:

Chances for rain will be back Saturday - Sunday night. There's is a possibility we might carry the rain over to Monday, but if we do, it's most likely going to be mainly east. Despite what changes we might see in computer models between now and the weekend, it's a safe expectation that this will be a "scattered" storm chance, meaning some areas may not get much at all. Generally speaking, amounts will be higher in central and eastern Kansas, but doubtful that anybody gets enough to change the drought conditions. This seems more like a band-aid to the problem rather than a fix. However, we'll be grateful for anything. Friday night chances will be mainly Colorado to far western Kansas.

Chances will shift east for Saturday and Sunday. There will be a front coming through, but it's not bringing much (if any) cool air. Whatever "cool-down" we might have on Sunday would be associated with clouds and some storms - not necessarily the front itself.

I'll leave you with this - early September outlook for rain (compared to average) shows some hope. Rainfall average next month is about 2-3 inches for much of the state. A big shift toward wet weather is not likely, but one can hope for a little more moisture than what we've been getting as of late.