January outlook - Arctic air watch

 An early Happy New Year to you and thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up. You may not like what we have to showcase going into January, but when we issued the winter forecast, we said the coldest of the winter would be centered on January. And it does appear that the first big batch of Arctic air arrives very soon. I don't think it's record cold, but it could be around for a week or so, and my suspicion is the month (as a whole - averaged out) will be near or slightly below average on temperatures. 

The next winter storm in the making?

Around January 9-12th, a rather large system should develop into the desert Southwest once again (we've seen a bunch of them this winter already). This should link up with higher pressures up over the north pole, which will allow the bitter cold to barge south into the US. See the map below and notice the "H" up over Greenland, and also look at the deep blue/green back in Utah and Nevada. That's what we believe will be the next winter storm to come through the region.

Obviously, the finer details are murky at best this far out, but I'd be ready for some really cold weather to settle in as we approach mid-January. 

Another factor that deserves mention too is the Arctic Oscillation, which is quite negative over the next 30 days and beyond. When that happens, it does increase the potential of much colder stretches of weather to arrive (it's not always a guarantee), but usually is a telegraph for what's down the road. In this setup, higher pressure up over the pole allows the colder air to dislodge and head south. The line that we pay most attention to in the image below is the solid black line. All the way to the end of January, it's negative, so our chances of having a warm month ahead are very slim.

Here's a 32-day snow prediction off one of the computer models - what's a bit interesting is just how much of the country could experience some snow in the upcoming month. The more we put down, the better the chances will be for the cold air to hang around longer. 

If you're interested in January "norms", here they are. It's not necessarily the snowiest month of the year, but it is the month with the lowest average temperatures (you probably aren't surprised by that). The averages will start to go up mid-late month. We are also gaining daylight now that we have passed the solstice. 

Winter is starting to show up - get ready

We've been enjoying some very mild weather for December, but it would appear this is about to change in the coming weeks. We still haven't had any Arctic air and this month is on pace to be a top 10 warmest around the state. Look at these stats as we hit the halfway point in December:

• Goodland - 4th warmest
• Salina - 7th warmest
• Dodge City - 8th
• Wichita - 9th

Nearly the entire country is experiencing a very warm month so far, and I don't look for that to change much between now and year's end. It's been pretty strange. 

Couple of things to watch:

Arctic oscillation: This can sometimes be the first clue of a major shift toward warm or colder trends. We've covered this before, but a "positive" Arctic oscillation indicates less cold reaching us from the polar region, while "negative" AO values suggest a better chance of an Arctic invasion. 

What are we seeing now? It's been pretty positive lately, but a trend to negative shows up into the early days of 2024. Will it be an abrupt shift or a gradual easing? My suspicion is that we will ease into the colder weather, and even if we do see some Arctic air coming in, they may be brief bouts of it. 

Building high pressure in western Canada:

If we see high pressure (or a ridge) going up in western Canada into early January, that could easily signal an invasion of bitterly cold air coming into the lower 48. This setup has not been a reality yet in December, but a shift to this may happen in the coming weeks. 

All of this leading to a forecast map that looks like this for early January:

And here's another preview of mid-late January:

Of course, the southern branch of the jet stream (also known as the sub-tropical jet) will remain active too, bringing more moisture off the Pacific and right into the desert Southwest and across the southern Plains. This is classic of El Nino setups, but will the bitter cold from the north meet up with the moisture coming across the south? 

Heads up for a post-Christmas storm:

While we won't have a white Christmas this year, just beyond the holiday we will have another low pressure tracking across the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains. If you are going to be traveling around the holiday, consider this early heads up to some active weather. I don't think it will be a big winter storm (given the lack of widespread cold), but we have to watch and wait. The model image below highlights the wet weather from California to Plains and deep South. Those green colors represent above average moisture (in much of Kansas, this is .50-1" ABOVE), so could easily be a pretty wet system coming on through. 

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here. 

Winter Forecast 2023-24

This winter forecast might seem late because we already had a nice snow event right after Thanksgiving. Considering we are just a week in on meteorological winter and the solstice isn't until the 21st, we still have the entire season ahead of us. You've probably seen a few winter forecasts out there floating around, probably on the social platforms, but I think it's important you hear from us what our thoughts are going into the season. 

Overall:

I don't think this winter is going to be that cold at all. I'm fairly certain we will make it through December with no Arctic air at all. It's amazing. Even as we write this up, looking up into central Canada of all places, nighttime temperatures are in the teens. That's not Arctic air and it will be several more weeks before we even see a chance of it coming this way. 

I do believe the heart of the cold is focused over January this winter. You might be saying "isn't it always that way?" Just remember two years ago in February of 2021, we had two full weeks of sub-freezing weather. It went all the way to the Deep South and is something we still talk about today. And there are years where the worst of the cold comes in December, and then it's a cake walk in January and February. Whatever Arctic air we get this winter should be fairly brief episodes, but again, January looks cold. February looks a bit milder (or "less cold").

What's the biggest driver of the winter forecast?

It's El Niño and I'm guessing most of you have heard it referenced before. Last year at this time, it was La Niña, and the two can be confusing. El Niño is warmer than average water along the Equator in the Pacific and La Niña is the opposite. In an unusual scenario, we had 3 back-to-back years of La Niña which are notorious for summer droughts and prolonged heat waves. Now that El Niño is here, odds tend to be in our favor of getting more moisture. The map below shows what a typical El Niño winter does for precipitation in Kansas, but this is an average and not necessarily what this winter will do. 

This El Niño is a strong one, as the water temperatures (in the green box) are running about 2°C above average. It's not historic, but at that level, there should be a pretty solid influence on the jet stream well into spring (and maybe beyond). The last El Niño of this magnitude (or stronger) was back in 2015-16.

One other considering factor is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which also deals with warm and cool water in the Pacific (hence the name). Cool water along the North American coastline and warmer water in the North Pacific is a "negative" PDO - that happens to be the phase we are currently in. In the graph below, you'll see how it bounces back and forth, and this year a negative PDO and an El Niño are happening together. We don't have much history on the two happening together, but in the few cases that we do have, winter snowfall was higher than average. 

Other takeaways:

A very active southern branch of the jet stream seems inevitable, and it already appears underway. Kansas is likely going to be on the northern fringe of it, so look for the better moisture (and more significant drought removal) to be in the southern half of the state this winter. This is also where the better snowfall will probably be this winter.

There is another piece of the winter pattern that will bring some milder/warmer stretches of weather. When Alaska is getting snow and much colder weather, we will likely have a warmer setup in the Plains and the northern Plains. 

Just for fun:

I compiled past El Niño winters (including the weak ones) and what the snowfall amounts were for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. See for yourself - the amounts are highly variable. 

Wichita:

Goodland:

Dodge City:

What do the seasonal model forecasts have:

The warmth of December and nighttime lows will likely contribute most to the warmth that you see in the map below. Arctic air will find its way to Kansas, but as mentioned above, they will probably be short lived. 

Precipitation:

More classic El Nino signatures here with above average moisture forecast for the central Plains. I would be a little suspicious of northern Kansas being "above", but there's reason to be hopeful this winter provides enough moisture to keep the drought from rapid expansion (and in some cases, it should even improve).

December outlook & daylight saving time revisited

Meteorological fall comes to a close and it's been an interesting ride over the last 3 months. Just some of the highlights (or lowlights - depending on where you are reading this from) include:

Most of the records mentioned above are all due to one large-scale system (post-Thanksgiving) that had ample moisture and just enough cold air.

December outlook:

By now you probably know or have heard that the beginning of the new month looks WARM. And I have a strong suspicion this is how December will turn out too (as a whole). Look what happens to the overall jet stream setup for the first week in December:

By forcing the jet that far north, our chances at moisture come to a halt and temperatures will soar for several days. It's not necessarily a record warm pattern, but most days will be warmer than one might expect for December. And it will be that way over much of the country. You'll see plenty of 50 and 60° days ahead.

In the second week of the month, look for the warmth to begin easing as cold fronts get stronger once again. The warmth will move east as more active weather comes into the western US. I just don't see Arctic air diving south on a large scale, but a cooler trend looks to be in the works just beyond the first week of December. The area blue from the Rockies west clearly highlights where the more widespread rounds of rain and snow will be shaping up as a persistent train of low pressure systems make their way into the West.

3rd week of December - most of the significant warmth has been removed, but still not overwhelmingly cold for the Plains states.

Don't expect much (if any) moisture for early December. The pattern coming up isn't helpful, but we do find ourselves getting back into an active setup as we move toward mid-December and beyond. This doesn't mean we are destined for a White Christmas, but a few things working in our favor include colder weather returning for Christmas and what should be a steady stream of active weather coming through the southern Plains at that time. I'd say the chances are better this year than in any given year, but getting everything to line up just right is tough.

Here's a 30 day snowfall map (I don't put much value in these, but they can be fun to look at if nothing else):

Finally - December moisture as a whole:

Look like a decent chance at having average to above average moisture (see the graphic at the top for what is "normal" rainfall & snow). As El Nino continues to provide opportunities for the southern storm track to remain juiced up, we have reason to remain optimistic about our precipitation chances.

Revisiting sunrise/sunset times & if we didn't change clocks:

Nobody talks about it this time of year because we are a month into the new time (Standard Time began back in early November). Since we are reaching the point where our sunset is as early as it gets during the year, and almost at the point where our sunrise is at its latest, what if we didn't change clocks? Bottom line, it would be very dark very late into the morning. We wouldn't have any daylight until well after 8am, with a sunrise not until 8:44am. We'd have more light in the evening, of course, but mornings would be dark. You just have to ask yourself where you'd prefer your extra daylight. Everyone has a different opinion on it and no matter what lawmakers decide, it won't please everyone - kinda like the weather, right?

Have a great day.

Weekend storm update - more active days to come

Hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday (or had a great holiday, depending on when you read this). There's so much to be grateful for, not the least of which was the most recent round of moisture. I know it's still a bit of a touchy subject given that some just haven't had any good rain at all. Take for example, Goodland. On track to have a top 10 driest falls on record:

Post-Thanksgiving storm:

This is not great for those getting on the roads, but for the farmer with acres of wheat that needs moisture, bring it on, right? What's been interesting is how locked in the computer models have been over the last several days. Sometimes we see significant variations from computer model to computer model, but with this go around, that hasn't been the case. In recent days, model trends have been:

• slightly colder
• higher moisture content
• slightly farther south storm track

None of the variations have really changed our overall thinking about how this will play out. All of this to say, we expect a statewide snow event. Given the temperatures, this will likely be a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means, if you were to get 10 inches of snow, you would expect about 1 inch of liquid moisture. Much of the state could be in the running for .30"-.50" (again this will be melted snow)

Wind - not a huge factor here. Look at western Kansas on Friday where the snow will be falling. Most should have wind speeds under 15. 

And then on Saturday, speeds are nothing to be concerned with:

The moisture content looks healthy but given how quickly it will plow through the region (probably 12 hours of snow), it should keep us from having a major snowstorm. Early thinking on accumulations (storm total, including Friday and Saturday amounts):

What's behind the winter system:

There's no Arctic air coming down into our immediate region, so expect the snow melt to start the next day. The month of November will end with seasonal temperatures (40s and 50s). What will be interesting to watch is just how active things might remain for several weeks to come. It's possible we may have a system trying to come through around Wed/Thu (Nov. 29/30) - so keep that in mind. 

If the system actually comes to reality, the expectation is it would be a rain maker and not one with snow or ice. 

Early December: If you look at the map below, that area of "blue" on the West coast suggests lower pressures. That would likely mean a series of systems would be coming off the Pacific and tracking east. It does NOT guarantee that we will have moisture coming to the Plains, but it does increase the odds a bit. Just as a reminder, some of our most productive weather makers track from southern California to the Plains (while they intercept Gulf of Mexico humidity). 

Some computer models suggest up to .50" of moisture for the central Plains, but maybe not much more. We will have to wait and see, but the overall pattern should remain busy in the coming weeks. 

Thanks for coming by for a few minutes. Have a great day.

Winter storms are changing - what? And active weather ahead

Someone asked me in the last week, "what's this I hear about winter storms changing". It took me a second to understand what they were referring to, but then it hit me they were referring to the National Weather Service adjusting the criteria for a "winter storm warning". Most weather consumers (even meteorologists to be quite transparent) don't fully know, or remember, what criteria is needed for an advisory or a warning. Typically, if a winter storm is expected to drop 6 inches of snow, a "warning" will be issued. If it's expected to be LESS than 6 inches, a winter weather advisory comes down for the particular area. 

However, effectively immediately, most of Kansas will fall into a winter storm warning if 5 inches (or more) of snow is expected. This is not a big change, really. It will be interesting to see if by lowering the snow criteria if we end up with more winter storm warnings, or the count remains the same. I find it interesting how winter storm warnings get issued for just an inch or two of snow in the deep South. I get it - they aren't accustomed to them. Just like wind chill advisories for Florida when the expected "feels like" drops to 35 or colder.  

November warmth:

Just passed the halfway point of the month and this has been a warm one to say the least. South central Kansas is on pace to have the 2nd warmest, while Dodge City and Goodland are in the running for warmest. However, we still have some time left to erase some of that warmth. 

Two systems to watch:

The first one coming in Sunday/Monday looks to have the potential of .50-1" of moisture. We know there will be areas that come up well shy of that, and some that might get more. It's the nature of the beast, but what we DO have going for us is a Gulf of Mexico connection. 

We haven't had that for awhile. Notice the white arrows coming right off the Gulf and headed right up into the Plains? That should hopefully prove quite helpful in bolster some of the rainfall amounts. Latest look at rainfall amounts shows many areas around .50"

An after-Thanksgiving system may develop too:

We don't know much about what kind of system this will turn out to be, but in full transparency, there is a possibility of some snow AND light ice coming this way AFTER the holiday. Models are developing snow across the Rockies and High Plains, but things like track, moisture, and intensity are quite fuzzy now. If you do plan travel on Friday or at all next weekend, you'll want to check back with us. This doesn't have the ear markings of a powerhouse storm system, but it might have the right combo of moisture and cold air to make travel more difficult.

What is certain is there will be a bunch of cold air filtering south late in the holiday week. We may find ourselves dealing with some of the coldest air of the season, but that's how we can even things out after a warm start to the month.

Early December:

Just glancing out into early December. I don't think we will have record cold, but it looks like the beginning of December is going to be a little colder than average. What would that mean for high temperatures? I would expect mainly 30s and 40s. I've even seen some maps suggesting that December (as a whole) will be chillier than normal.

Moisture outlook:

We'll see how this pans out, but an active weather pattern may continue right into the beginning of December as well. It's that time of year where you know how bad we need the moisture, but there's the chance it doesn't come in the form we want. Average precipitation for early December is generally under .50", but if we continue in a very progressive pattern (where one storm off the West coast follows another), we could be in for some interesting weather to start the new month.

More to come as we roll into Thanksgiving week.

Early thoughts on Thanksgiving week

Thanksgiving is drawing closer - I can already smell the turkey. It's probably my favorite holiday since the focus is on something we should practice every day. And then there's the food too. We'd all like to be thankful for some good, soaking rain that eases more of the ongoing drought. But will it happen before, during, or after Thanksgiving?

If you read our November outlook, we highlighted the fact that the first half of the month wasn't going to have much moisture. These dry stretches (without even a chance of moisture) have been painfully long, sometimes lasting nearly 45-60 days. They are going to have to get closer together if we are going to make any progress in erasing the damage this drought has done. 

In the 2nd week of November - the rain continues to be south. A nice low coming up from Mexico provides the southern Plains with nice moisture. They need it too, but it's tough getting left out. 

And it will be WARM! There is no sign of winter in much of the country. Several record highs will once again be threatened, especially across the northern tier of the US.

There will be a nice big trough (low pressure) developing across the western US in the weekend prior to the Thanksgiving week. Will this come at us in waves, or just one big system? We don't have a good answer to that yet, but my expectation is that we will have several waves coming through here. It could be quite active during the holiday week. 

Here's another consideration on the rainfall for Thanksgiving week. Much of Kansas has a 40-50% chance of getting at least .50" of moisture BEFORE the holiday. Some of you will say "that's not going to be enough to change anything" - I understand. However, it's more than some areas have had in nearly 40 days. We will update this as we get closer. 

While that might intimidate some of you planning holiday travel, it's doubtful there will be much cold air around, so A BIG WINTER STORM APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

I expect a cooler stretch of weather in late November, but it doesn't look like it will be quite as cold as the surge we had in late October leading up to Halloween.

Have a great day.