Winter storms are changing - what? And active weather ahead

Someone asked me in the last week, "what's this I hear about winter storms changing". It took me a second to understand what they were referring to, but then it hit me they were referring to the National Weather Service adjusting the criteria for a "winter storm warning". Most weather consumers (even meteorologists to be quite transparent) don't fully know, or remember, what criteria is needed for an advisory or a warning. Typically, if a winter storm is expected to drop 6 inches of snow, a "warning" will be issued. If it's expected to be LESS than 6 inches, a winter weather advisory comes down for the particular area. 

However, effectively immediately, most of Kansas will fall into a winter storm warning if 5 inches (or more) of snow is expected. This is not a big change, really. It will be interesting to see if by lowering the snow criteria if we end up with more winter storm warnings, or the count remains the same. I find it interesting how winter storm warnings get issued for just an inch or two of snow in the deep South. I get it - they aren't accustomed to them. Just like wind chill advisories for Florida when the expected "feels like" drops to 35 or colder.  

November warmth:

Just passed the halfway point of the month and this has been a warm one to say the least. South central Kansas is on pace to have the 2nd warmest, while Dodge City and Goodland are in the running for warmest. However, we still have some time left to erase some of that warmth. 

Two systems to watch:

The first one coming in Sunday/Monday looks to have the potential of .50-1" of moisture. We know there will be areas that come up well shy of that, and some that might get more. It's the nature of the beast, but what we DO have going for us is a Gulf of Mexico connection. 

We haven't had that for awhile. Notice the white arrows coming right off the Gulf and headed right up into the Plains? That should hopefully prove quite helpful in bolster some of the rainfall amounts. Latest look at rainfall amounts shows many areas around .50"

An after-Thanksgiving system may develop too:

We don't know much about what kind of system this will turn out to be, but in full transparency, there is a possibility of some snow AND light ice coming this way AFTER the holiday. Models are developing snow across the Rockies and High Plains, but things like track, moisture, and intensity are quite fuzzy now. If you do plan travel on Friday or at all next weekend, you'll want to check back with us. This doesn't have the ear markings of a powerhouse storm system, but it might have the right combo of moisture and cold air to make travel more difficult.

What is certain is there will be a bunch of cold air filtering south late in the holiday week. We may find ourselves dealing with some of the coldest air of the season, but that's how we can even things out after a warm start to the month.

Early December:

Just glancing out into early December. I don't think we will have record cold, but it looks like the beginning of December is going to be a little colder than average. What would that mean for high temperatures? I would expect mainly 30s and 40s. I've even seen some maps suggesting that December (as a whole) will be chillier than normal.

Moisture outlook:

We'll see how this pans out, but an active weather pattern may continue right into the beginning of December as well. It's that time of year where you know how bad we need the moisture, but there's the chance it doesn't come in the form we want. Average precipitation for early December is generally under .50", but if we continue in a very progressive pattern (where one storm off the West coast follows another), we could be in for some interesting weather to start the new month.

More to come as we roll into Thanksgiving week.