December outlook & daylight saving time revisited

Meteorological fall comes to a close and it's been an interesting ride over the last 3 months. Just some of the highlights (or lowlights - depending on where you are reading this from) include:

Most of the records mentioned above are all due to one large-scale system (post-Thanksgiving) that had ample moisture and just enough cold air.

December outlook:

By now you probably know or have heard that the beginning of the new month looks WARM. And I have a strong suspicion this is how December will turn out too (as a whole). Look what happens to the overall jet stream setup for the first week in December:

By forcing the jet that far north, our chances at moisture come to a halt and temperatures will soar for several days. It's not necessarily a record warm pattern, but most days will be warmer than one might expect for December. And it will be that way over much of the country. You'll see plenty of 50 and 60° days ahead.

In the second week of the month, look for the warmth to begin easing as cold fronts get stronger once again. The warmth will move east as more active weather comes into the western US. I just don't see Arctic air diving south on a large scale, but a cooler trend looks to be in the works just beyond the first week of December. The area blue from the Rockies west clearly highlights where the more widespread rounds of rain and snow will be shaping up as a persistent train of low pressure systems make their way into the West.

3rd week of December - most of the significant warmth has been removed, but still not overwhelmingly cold for the Plains states.

Don't expect much (if any) moisture for early December. The pattern coming up isn't helpful, but we do find ourselves getting back into an active setup as we move toward mid-December and beyond. This doesn't mean we are destined for a White Christmas, but a few things working in our favor include colder weather returning for Christmas and what should be a steady stream of active weather coming through the southern Plains at that time. I'd say the chances are better this year than in any given year, but getting everything to line up just right is tough.

Here's a 30 day snowfall map (I don't put much value in these, but they can be fun to look at if nothing else):

Finally - December moisture as a whole:

Look like a decent chance at having average to above average moisture (see the graphic at the top for what is "normal" rainfall & snow). As El Nino continues to provide opportunities for the southern storm track to remain juiced up, we have reason to remain optimistic about our precipitation chances.

Revisiting sunrise/sunset times & if we didn't change clocks:

Nobody talks about it this time of year because we are a month into the new time (Standard Time began back in early November). Since we are reaching the point where our sunset is as early as it gets during the year, and almost at the point where our sunrise is at its latest, what if we didn't change clocks? Bottom line, it would be very dark very late into the morning. We wouldn't have any daylight until well after 8am, with a sunrise not until 8:44am. We'd have more light in the evening, of course, but mornings would be dark. You just have to ask yourself where you'd prefer your extra daylight. Everyone has a different opinion on it and no matter what lawmakers decide, it won't please everyone - kinda like the weather, right?

Have a great day.