This is strange heading into early May

One system departs and another quickly closes in for Friday, there are mixed feelings. I know some of you are upset that you didn't get any rain, others didn't get nearly enough, and then some couldn't be happier. And then some are upset about our forecast calling for rain in northern Kansas that never materialized. I get it - it's frustrating. Any slight change in strength of the system, available moisture, track, upper-level dynamics, etc. can result in different outcomes. Forecast models are still light years better than what they were 20 years ago, but they aren't perfect. 

Here's the rainfall from the last two weeks:

Keep in mind that the latest drought map just out Thursday does NOT take into account much of the rain that fell this week. The cutoff is 7am Tuesdays, and since most of the rain came after that, we won't see the impact until the next map release on May 4. 

The system coming in Friday is all but a dud. It approaches from the north and west, so amounts of moisture will quite limited. I would expect under .25" when it clears the area Friday night. 

We are moving into what is traditionally a busy stretch for severe storms. Think of all the tornado anniversaries around this time of year. We just had Andover, May 3rd is Haysville, and May 4th is Greensburg. I don't know the exact date severe weather season peaks in Kansas, but this is our prime season. What is striking is the pattern setup for next week is very benign. It's even questionable as to whether or not we will have any windy days to contend with, much less any severe threats. 

A fairly large system will be focused over the West (California), and should hang out there for several days in a row. Meanwhile, another big system will be in position up in the Great Lakes. Sandwiched in between is Kansas where things will be very quiet. 

Eary May just doesn't hold much hope for rain. There was record rainfall in May 2022 (over 12 inches to be exact in some areas), but this year, it's different. I will say this though. Western Kansas may get several rounds of isolated storms as we approach mid to late May. I don't think we will have a huge surplus, but the outlook later in the month looks more promising than what we've seen lately. Look what happened in April. We went nearly all month with nothing, and then got some decent rain later in the month. May could turn out just the same way. Stay tuned. 

Have a great day.