Thursday severe setup & such a close call for the weekend

It's already been a fairly active week of weather in much of Kansas, and it isn't quite over yet. The focus into Thursday centers around storms that will impact most, if not all of the area. The driving force behind it all is the upper low coming from California that will head into the Rockies. We've already had several tornado warnings this week in the Plains, but most of them never verified (actual eyewitness accounts of a tornado to substantiate the warning). It appears the setup will be slightly different coming up Thursday because of the overall wind setup through the atmosphere. 

Notice the low-level winds Thursday around 4pm:

The upper-level winds coming from the southwest:

The risk area for severe storms covers a big part of Kansas, but not everyone will have hail and wind, but most of the region should have a shot at some rain. 

That much difference in wind direction creates a spin, and when storms start developing in that environment, the rotation stands vertically. It still doesn't mean we will have a bunch of tornadoes, but the risk does increase some.

Tornado episodes (although there have been a few lately) haven't been as explosive or as widespread compared to March and April around the country. When you look at the tornado count for the United States, we've seen the trend level off just a bit, and we are close to average at this point in the season. What started off as the 3rd busiest tornado season since 2005 is no longer the case.

This Saturday and Sunday, a slow moving, just the kind of rain we need, will be sitting to our south in the southern Plains. Look at that significant moisture that will more than likely end up in Texas and Oklahoma. 

Once we get beyond Thursday, severe weather in our immediate area drops off for a while (maybe a week or longer). Why? For one, the humidity is going to drop next week, which significantly lowers the chances of storms AND rainfall. 

The upper-level winds next week will be much weaker and likely coming out of the northwest. Several factors contributing to the quiet stretch of weather that's in front of us. 

Here's your rain forecast (compared to average) for the 4th week of May:

And right around Memorial Day and into early June, perhaps some better chances for moisture returning:

Have a great day.