July outlook - thoughts on the month ahead

Heading into the peak of summertime and July can be a punishing month if you aren't getting any rain and temperatures hit 100° day in-and-out. You might recall, that's a good summary of what played out last July when drought was expanding quickly throughout the central US. That's very unlikely to take place this year. 

Here are your July "normals" - expectations for temperatures and rainfall:

Early July:

The month will more than likely start off near or even cooler than average for our area. The "heat dome" is going to move back to Mexico and keep the hottest weather well south of Kansas. (see the image below)

While this occurs, several instances of scattered storms may develop throughout the region. It's possible we could get a pretty good portion of our average monthly rainfall right at the beginning of the month. Some of the models give some nice rainfall to the area right after the 4th of July holiday. 

Even though we escape the potential of really hot weather early on, it wouldn't be a surprise to see things heat up more significantly in mid-late July. 

Overall, it looks like a warmer than average month ahead - remember, this map below takes into account the warm nighttime temperatures as well as the afternoon highs. 

Rainfall:

We should get enough to keep easing drought conditions for a good part of the state. I won't promise we will be leaps and bounds better off than how the month starts, but it would appear that enough rain will be coming this way to keep us from burning up in summer heat and watching our grass dry up completely. Recharging ponds, lakes, and rivers still requires more rain than we might receive in July, but we can hope to keep crops moving in the right direction with timely rains. 

You see a similar idea in this map with forecast rainfall (compared to average) for July.

We will approach the month ahead cautiously optimistic about rainfall. It sure would be nice to keep the grass growing and the corn/milo/soybeans looking healthy too. 

Hope you have a good 4th of July.