First thoughts on September - drought expansion?

What a stretch we've had in Kansas with the intense heat and lack of rainfall. It sure feels like our efforts to push back the drought have suddenly hit a wall. Even though the latest drought map released on Thursday (August 24) didn't show any change, the extreme heat has evaporated some good moisture from our soil. 

Here's the drought map from August 17:

Most recent released map on August 24:

You'll notice our final days of August will be more enjoyable as the "heat ridge" has now taken up residency in the desert Southwest. In doing so, our temperatures AND humidity levels will be enjoyable.

It's highly likely that the heat ridge will come back over the central US into Labor Day weekend and for the start of September. While not quite the strength of the one we just endured, there's potential of hovering around 100° once again. This may persist through the first week of the new month. 

Rainfall will most certainly be in short supply too into September. Just look at the 30-day forecast for the central US and note the better moisture may be focused over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Meanwhile, areas east of I-135 might be in a holding pattern for better rainfall. That's also where drought conditions are still some of the worst in the state.

I'll keep looking for some better rainfall down the stretch, but expectations are September will be a dry month for most of the state. If the rains are coming, it's not happening until later in the month. Anything between now and then may not amount to very much. Tough news I know for soybean and milo farmers. 

Gulf storms & the chances of getting one to Kansas

 A stretch of sunny, hot weather is inevitable for now as we get the epicenter of the heat to position right over Kansas. It will be this way through August 24/25. Remember, under the high, air sinks and warms up and chances for rain essentially go to zero for most areas.

All of the excitement will be happening on the edges of the heat dome. Look at the rain that will fall west of the Rockies across the inner mountain West. Some of this is related to the monsoon (a seasonal shift in winds that result in beneficial rain).

Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, an area of thunderstorms will form over water that is very warm this time of year. I don't think we will see this area organize into a tropical storm or a hurricane, but it's going to bring some welcome rains to places that continue to battle drought. The winds around the high pressure dome go clockwise, so with the high over Kansas and Missouri, it will be steered westward. 

Just look at how warm the Gulf of Mexico continues to be:

Then look at how it compares to average. It is more than 2°C above average near the Alabama/Florida coast. Meanwhile off the Texas and Louisiana cost, it is warmer than average, but closer to .5-1°C.

Where this area of thunderstorms go after it makes landfall in Texas is still up for discussion. Some of the models push it toward Amarillo and others have it remaining farther south across Texas. This is where we just have to "wait and see" as the computer data comes into better alignment as time gets closer. If the upper high (over KS/MO) ends up weaker or wobbling a bit more to the east of Kansas, we could very well have some tropical type thunderstorms forming right here. If the upper high remains over Kansas, this area of rain will likely stay south of us.

I did some digging to find past Gulf of Mexico tropical systems that made it close to our area and here's what I found.

Most recently, 2019: Barry (July 11-15) moved up from Louisiana into southern Missouri before fading. This system didn't provide much rain to our immediate area.

Then in 2015 - Tropical Storm Bill in June - Close to Kansas, but not a big rain maker locally.

In 2012 - Isaac passed close to Kansas around the 1st of September

In 2010 - Hermine - September 5-9

What are we seeing on the horizon? This stretch of heat is similar to what happened in late July and early August (it lasted a couple of weeks and then was followed by generous rains and below average temperatures) We are able to find an end to this upcoming heat wave. Early September looks to be back to near or slightly cooler than average (which would be highs in the mid-upper 80s by that time).

Rainfall will be back too. It's tough to say how much rain (exactly), but it looks pretty likely that storms will once again be coming our way from the Rockies and high plains of Nebraska. Things will be much more active to start the new month (compared to how August is wrapping up)

Have a great day.

Summer is far from over - signs of a developing heat wave

Kids are heading back to school and for most of Kansas, the last 8-10 days haven't been too bad by August standards. And we are about to have another really nice week coming up with highs mainly in the 80s and low 90s. I don't expect we will see any 100s on a widespread scale for the second full week of the month (Aug 14-18). However, read on and you'll learn that it may not stay that way for too long.

Enjoy the drier air that's filtering in for Monday/Tuesday (Aug. 14/15). Dew point temperatures (which again, is a measure of how much water is in the air) should remain below 60° and that's hard to do at this time of year. It will feel really nice, especially with highs remaining in the low 80s. The tradeoff is that we won't get any additional rain Monday/Tuesday.

Our only storm chance will come with a cold front Wednesday night. It's not a slam dunk for everyone to get rain, but the chance will be out there, especially over central and eastern Kansas. 

What has our attention is the heat ridge coming back over the Plains for next weekend (Aug 19/20). The upper high (which has been much weaker) has been hanging out in Texas. There are so many locations in Texas that have recorded 45-50+ 100° days. That probably brings back some bad memories for some of you - like the summer of 2011.

As the heat ridge positions overhead, our chances of ramping up to around 100 certainly go up, but how long will this pattern remain?

From what I am seeing, it won't be an extended period of major heat. The upper high could easily end up back in Arizona and New Mexico late in August, which could set the stage for storms off the high Plains of Colorado and western Kansas. And temperatures would likely back down IF the heat ridge moves back southwestward. 

Rainfall forecast late in the month: Looks to be near average, which for the time frame shown below would be around .40-.80"

Another rainfall forecast - looking at the upcoming 30-day period:

We continue to think about those in Maui who have lost everything in fires. We know the sadness here in Kansas because we've had similar situations (thinking back to December 15, 2021) where powerful winds pushed fires across the Plains that killed cattle and burned homes. They are natural disasters that seem impossible to stop. Along with the strong winds that have been talked about, Maui is dealing with an ongoing drought too, with much of the island in moderate to severe drought. Seems strange that an area surrounded by water could be so dry, but if you don't get something to turn the nearby humidity into rainfall, you're no better off than those landlocked. The wind funneling through those hills and mountains speed up, compress, and warm. They also dry out too, which can take a small fire and turn it into something disastrous in no time at all. We are definitely thinking and praying for those impacted.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

August outlook & a spectacular meteor shower arriving soon

I'm a little late to the August outlook but wanted to put something up to help you understand how the month will probably unfold. As you've already noticed from the forecast, we are cooling it down already and the hottest part of summer looks to be in our rear-view mirror. There's still plenty of time to have some 100s yet, and I think we will before the summer is officially over. Let's give a quick overview of what is "normal":

At the end of the month, our sunset will be exactly 8pm and the days keep growing shorter. Something else happens at the end of the month - a blue moon! That's right, the 2nd full moon in a calendar month is typically referred to as a "blue" moon, even though it has nothing to do with the color. 

Now - mid August:

The upper-level high pressure has weakened and is in the process of retreating back to the Southwest where it will likely hang out through mid-month. Of course, we've been hearing about the record heat in the southern US and there's plenty more to come. 

Mid-August:

I don't foresee the big-time heat returning in the middle of the month. The upper high will likely hang out in the Southwest, keeping the most extreme heat focused west and south of Kansas. I'm not saying we will be "cool" by any means, but I don't think we will have the extreme heat (highs 100-105 day-after-day)

Late August:

This may end up being the hottest part of the month. Expect temperatures to return to "above" average, which could easily mean a run at upper 90s to near 100. I don't think we would have record highs late in the month but expect it to get hotter late in August. 

Perseid Meteor Shower - should be excellent this year!

It's an annual thing and might be one of the best meteor showers all year. Given the fact that the moon will be nearing "new" phase, there won't be the extra light to wash out some of the faint meteors. It will peak in the predawn hours of Sunday, August 13th. Start looking just after dark Saturday night, and if you focus your attention to the northeast, you might (under the best of conditions) see approximately 40-60 per hour. We are often asked "where should I look"? In the case of a meteor shower, really the secret is to get away from city lights and just look straight up. 

Have a terrific day.