Summer is far from over - signs of a developing heat wave

Kids are heading back to school and for most of Kansas, the last 8-10 days haven't been too bad by August standards. And we are about to have another really nice week coming up with highs mainly in the 80s and low 90s. I don't expect we will see any 100s on a widespread scale for the second full week of the month (Aug 14-18). However, read on and you'll learn that it may not stay that way for too long.

Enjoy the drier air that's filtering in for Monday/Tuesday (Aug. 14/15). Dew point temperatures (which again, is a measure of how much water is in the air) should remain below 60° and that's hard to do at this time of year. It will feel really nice, especially with highs remaining in the low 80s. The tradeoff is that we won't get any additional rain Monday/Tuesday.

Our only storm chance will come with a cold front Wednesday night. It's not a slam dunk for everyone to get rain, but the chance will be out there, especially over central and eastern Kansas. 

What has our attention is the heat ridge coming back over the Plains for next weekend (Aug 19/20). The upper high (which has been much weaker) has been hanging out in Texas. There are so many locations in Texas that have recorded 45-50+ 100° days. That probably brings back some bad memories for some of you - like the summer of 2011.

As the heat ridge positions overhead, our chances of ramping up to around 100 certainly go up, but how long will this pattern remain?

From what I am seeing, it won't be an extended period of major heat. The upper high could easily end up back in Arizona and New Mexico late in August, which could set the stage for storms off the high Plains of Colorado and western Kansas. And temperatures would likely back down IF the heat ridge moves back southwestward. 

Rainfall forecast late in the month: Looks to be near average, which for the time frame shown below would be around .40-.80"

Another rainfall forecast - looking at the upcoming 30-day period:

We continue to think about those in Maui who have lost everything in fires. We know the sadness here in Kansas because we've had similar situations (thinking back to December 15, 2021) where powerful winds pushed fires across the Plains that killed cattle and burned homes. They are natural disasters that seem impossible to stop. Along with the strong winds that have been talked about, Maui is dealing with an ongoing drought too, with much of the island in moderate to severe drought. Seems strange that an area surrounded by water could be so dry, but if you don't get something to turn the nearby humidity into rainfall, you're no better off than those landlocked. The wind funneling through those hills and mountains speed up, compress, and warm. They also dry out too, which can take a small fire and turn it into something disastrous in no time at all. We are definitely thinking and praying for those impacted.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.