A stretch of sunny, hot weather is inevitable for now as we get the epicenter of the heat to position right over Kansas. It will be this way through August 24/25. Remember, under the high, air sinks and warms up and chances for rain essentially go to zero for most areas.
All of the excitement will be happening on the edges of the heat dome. Look at the rain that will fall west of the Rockies across the inner mountain West. Some of this is related to the monsoon (a seasonal shift in winds that result in beneficial rain).
Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, an area of thunderstorms will form over water that is very warm this time of year. I don't think we will see this area organize into a tropical storm or a hurricane, but it's going to bring some welcome rains to places that continue to battle drought. The winds around the high pressure dome go clockwise, so with the high over Kansas and Missouri, it will be steered westward.
Just look at how warm the Gulf of Mexico continues to be:
Then look at how it compares to average. It is more than 2°C above average near the Alabama/Florida coast. Meanwhile off the Texas and Louisiana cost, it is warmer than average, but closer to .5-1°C.
Where this area of thunderstorms go after it makes landfall in Texas is still up for discussion. Some of the models push it toward Amarillo and others have it remaining farther south across Texas. This is where we just have to "wait and see" as the computer data comes into better alignment as time gets closer. If the upper high (over KS/MO) ends up weaker or wobbling a bit more to the east of Kansas, we could very well have some tropical type thunderstorms forming right here. If the upper high remains over Kansas, this area of rain will likely stay south of us.
I did some digging to find past Gulf of Mexico tropical systems that made it close to our area and here's what I found.
Most recently, 2019: Barry (July 11-15) moved up from Louisiana into southern Missouri before fading. This system didn't provide much rain to our immediate area.
Then in 2015 - Tropical Storm Bill in June - Close to Kansas, but not a big rain maker locally.
In 2012 - Isaac passed close to Kansas around the 1st of September
In 2010 - Hermine - September 5-9
What are we seeing on the horizon? This stretch of heat is similar to what happened in late July and early August (it lasted a couple of weeks and then was followed by generous rains and below average temperatures) We are able to find an end to this upcoming heat wave. Early September looks to be back to near or slightly cooler than average (which would be highs in the mid-upper 80s by that time).
Rainfall will be back too. It's tough to say how much rain (exactly), but it looks pretty likely that storms will once again be coming our way from the Rockies and high plains of Nebraska. Things will be much more active to start the new month (compared to how August is wrapping up)
Have a great day.
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