October outlook includes an eclipse & frost talk

Our first round of October rain looks like it could be a statewide chance as we watch a system coming at us from the west and a cold front that should dive south. However, there's still enormous frustration with what's going on right now given that we can't seem to find a steady diet of moisture. And I have some concerns about the rain setup in the first week of the new month. More about that in a second. 

Here's the drought map as we start October: 81% in some level of drought with 2% at the highest level

I've talked to several people that have said "a return to some mind of normal weather would be nice" - I couldn't agree more. Lately, just getting average rain would be a huge win because so many months this year, it hasn't been that way. 

Wichita:

Dodge City:

Salina:

First, let's look at October averages:

My concerns with the system arriving in early October is amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico AND the track of the overall system. As you'll see below, the moisture supply is probably enough to get some rain going, but a good strong connection to the Gulf is somewhat lacking. We are showing dew point numbers here, and we'd want them to be well above 60 if we could, and that better moisture is much farther south. Still, I think there is enough humidity in place to get some rain to show up.

The other concern is where the main system is tracking - which will probably go through Wyoming and on to the north. It would be better if it were about 100-200 miles farther south, but that seems unlikely given recent trends.

October outlook:

I just don't think the new month is going to be what we need or want - yet. After the initial round of rain, another lengthy dry spell looks to unfold for October week 2 and possibly week 3. 

The entire month may end up near to slightly above, but will all of that come at the beginning of the month? We have to remember that in October, patterns are evolving, the jet stream is strengthening, and some of our longer range stuff struggles to handle the changing season. 

October Temperatures (on some higher level of confidence here) will most likely end up warmer than average when all is said and done. 

As for our first fall frost, I'm not convinced it will be early this year. Northern Kansas can get the first frost by mid-October, but this year, I think it will be later than average and we may not get it until later in the month or even into November. 

Annular eclipse: Don't forget, this is coming up on October 14th. DON'T LOOK DIRECTLY AT THE SUN. If you want to get closer to the path of totality (the sun won't be completely blocked), you'll need to head farther west.