Most of you have heard by now that El Nino is all but dead and the incoming La Nina is ready to take over. We've talked about the La Nina influence on Kansas summers, and they lean toward dry & hot (Precisely what most of us can't afford to have right now because we haven't fully recovered from the last drought).
Before we go much further, here's what the latest water temperatures (compared to average) look like across the Pacific basin:
That area of colder water along the equator is advancing westward pretty quickly, so I would expect in the next 60-75 days, we will be in La Nina. The last such case of an incoming La Nina in mid-late spring did what for the summer season? Let's take a look!
It happened as recently as 2020. That was a spring with virtually no tornadoes (we would go on to have a total of 17 in Kansas for the whole year). Here's what the ocean temperatures were doing in May of that year:
Notice the onset of the colder water over the eastern Pacific (along the equator). That would go on to be the start of THREE years of La Nina!
Here's what we had for rainfall in June of 2020: Yellow, orange, and red are representative of drier than normal conditions for the month. Most rain happened to be in central and northcentral Kansas. Bone dry in the Flint Hills.
And here's what we saw in July - huge rainfall in many areas of Kansas! Those purple colors represent rainfall that was more than 4 inches above the average, and it covered a good portion of the state. It is very possible to get good moisture in a La Nina summer, but chances are much lower than they would be if we were in an El Nino setup.
August 2020: turned off drier, and temperatures were near normal for most of the Plains.
Unless the second half of May turns off really wet, this is likely to go down as a "top 10 driest spring". Wichita has been knocked out of top 10, but just about every other location that we are keeping tabs on remains in the hunt.
What does the upcoming 30 days look like for rainfall? Average rainfall for western Kansas would be roughly 2.5-3 inches in most locations, but farther east, you would expect anywhere from 4 to as many as 6 inches.
It's not that western Kansas won't get rain, but it looks drier than normal for most areas. That's not going to surprise anybody as it ties in with the latest trends. If there's an area that's favored for wetter than average conditions, it would be south central/eastern Kansas. Areas east of Kansas should get pretty generous rainfall.
No comments:
Post a Comment