Here we go again & talking October frost

The map below sums up everything you need to know about our weather in the short term. Dry dry dry! Gee, haven't we had enough of long stretches without rain? It's becoming the hallmark of Kansas weather lately - a little rain and then a month without it. This is a forecast for rain through October 5th:

It's really not uncommon to have long, dry spells in the winter because the humidity is very low. I was surprised to see Dodge City had their longest stretch with no measurable rain in April and early May of this year. 

The overall pattern won't be much help for generating beneficial moisture for the central Plains. What will be most common through the first 10-12 days of the new month is a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies that will keep the weather in Kansas very quiet. (and warm too)

Take note of the image below for October 10th - what do we see? Once again, it's high pressure dominant for the central Plains which is not going to be good for generating widespread rains.

It could be that we wait until later in October for our weather to get more interesting. Most models start showing low pressure in the western US that could be better rain makers. 

I just don't see any way that October is a change from the dry weather patterns. The month as a whole will more than likely be below average on rainfall. 

Here are the October average for different locations in Kansas. Overall, daylight and temperatures keep going down

And in case you are wondering, the average first fall frost in western Kansas tends to happen in early October, but given the warmth that we are seeing across the board, it's very doubtful that we would have an early one this year.