Could we escape the worst of summer's heat in July?

Welcome to July! And already, 2026 is half over (I'm always amazed at how fast time flies). We just wrapped up a wet June with many locations experiencing a top 20 wettest June on record, but some went even further than that by breaking into top 10. Here's a map showing June rainfall numbers:

Several areas across central and southern Kansas had over 200% of normal moisture. Naturally, the drought has improved drastically compared to 60 days ago. Incoming El Nino is almost always helpful in generating rainfall and this time proves no different. 

July is starting off with record heat in the eastern United States as the infamous "heat dome" sets up across the Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, the impacts are far reaching with the New England states even gearing up for highs near 100. A few areas may have all-time high temperatures before it's over, and it could be the last of the major heat they'll see in the East for the remainder of this summer. 

July outlook - I don't see this month being extremely hot for Kansas. Average highs remain in the low 90s throughout the month, and I can't imagine we'll have any prolonged periods of 100° weather. The upper level high will be uncomfortably close to Kansas, but latest trends suggest it may never get that strong. At times where it tries to strengthen, it may get weakened by some upper level feature coming over the northern Rockies. 

If that's the case, we should expect near or slightly cooler than average temperatures when the month ends. Here's the temperature map:

Rainfall expectations shouldn't be too disappointing, but we do know that July won't be as wet as June. After all, back-to-back record months with rainfall are quite unusual. Average July rain tends to drop because high pressure is more common this time of year. However, if the high pressure remains weaker, that should allow for some more active weather to arrive off the Rockies. We'll see. Early monsoon may help provide some welcome rainfall off to the southwest of Kansas too - not entirely sure if we'll see any of that getting up into our immediate area. 

Here's a rundown of what average July rainfall looks like for various parts of the state:

• Goodland: 3.08"
• Wichita: 3.98"
• Dodge City: 3.08"
• Garden City: 3.43"
• Salina: 3.92"
• Hutch: 3.33"
• Hays: 3.95"

Water temperatures out in the Pacific continue to warm as the El Nino intensifies. This will likely rank as one of the stronger ones on record before it's over. Note that even warmer water is gathering just off the central/south American coastline. Some of it will continue moving westward. The average water temperature in the El Nino zone (that's monitored) is 1.2° above average. This is going to be a factor through fall and winter, so it's a topic we'll come back to many times.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - stay cool!