Expanding drought - rain will be scarce

It's not that uncommon for March to be windy and mainly dry, but if you keep missing rains into April, you start to get a little nervous about it what it means going into summer. Lately, there has been some good rainfall in south central and eastern Kansas, but the latest drought map doesn't necessarily reflect that. In the short term, high pressure from Kansas to the West coast will keep the central Plains mostly void of decent moisture.

Beneficial rainfall (and some snow) will favor the northern Plains and areas east of Kansas, but the stubborn ridge will keep the central and southern Plains dry. We'll also see the potential of severe storms drop off.

If we stretch our rainfall forecast out to April 20th, it's a tough map to digest for areas across central and western Kansas where things have been pretty dry. It doesn't mean there won't be any rain, just that conditions will be drier than average. 

For what it's worth, we are quickly watching the La Nina in the Pacific fade away. The water has been slightly colder than average for the past several months (since last summer), but we are currently seeing the water warm up south of Hawaii. That is key to a change that should be coming as we move toward summer. Traditionally, with an onset of El Nino, the Plains can expect patterns that bring more favorable rainfall. It won't happen overnight or within a week, but a shift toward El Nino offers some hopeful signs of rain going forward (even if the spring isn't overly helpful).

This is how the water looked on December 1st:

And now, you'll see less "blue" colors along the Equator. We know the water is gradually warming, but an official declaration of El Nino won't come for several more months yet. 

I'll write something soon and go into more detail on the El Nino coming, but for now, just know that we are soon making the switch. 

Have a great day!