November gets more interesting

We are wrapping up another warmer than average month (surprise surprise), with many locations having a top 10 warmest Octobers on record. Here's a map showing October rainfall around the state. Most areas come out wetter than normal, but some drought remains over the central and southern parts of the state:

The El Nino is about to peak soon, but the impacts will be felt for several months to come (likely through spring 2027)

Here's the prediction on El Nino - notice how the line starts coming back down as we move deeper into winter and early spring. 

Lately, we've had some notable systems arrive from the Southwest with tropical connections that lead to significant rainfall. While they have been quite productive in generating some moisture, they haven't been that intense. However, that will start to change as winter gets closer and we will have a much stronger southern branch of the jet stream this winter (that's courtesy of El Nino).

Just look at the difference in 60 days across the Equator (south of Hawaii).

This first image is late August:

60 days later as we end October:

This is what will help to energize the southern branch of the jet stream (called the subtropical jet) as the winter sets in. We'll likely have one system right after another through November and December, so things will get very interesting as we continue. We start November off with some remaining drought conditions in central and southern Kansas, but I'm sure that will be wiped out very soon.

November Temperatures:

Again, we go into another month where things look warmer than average overall. This should put to rest the fears of us going straight into winter. We still have some pleasant fall days coming, but remember average highs drop into the 50s soon, so our "warmer" days are likely highs in the 60s - not 80s like we saw so much of in October. And this is an overall picture of the month, so we know there will be some cool stretches mixed in. Look back into the Southwest part of the US. That clearly resembles where our major storm systems will organize before kicking out across the Plains. 

November Rainfall:

On average, November is NOT a particularly wet month (on average). However, this will be another month with wetter than average conditions. The month of October was slightly wetter than normal for most of the state. Several locations reported in with at least .50" above average on moisture, and November continues the trend of active weather. 

Here are the average rainfall numbers for different areas of Kansas for November:

1. Salina: 1.22", Wichita: 1.36", Hutchinson: 1.12", Hays: .90", Goodland: .54",                Dodge City: .80", Garden City: .42"

Again, I would expect most of the state to receive better than average moisture when the month is over.

It's reasonable to expect several upper low pressure systems to form off the West coast and get into the desert Southwest. Another area that could be quite active in November will be the deep South. The Northern Plains and Rockies could be quite warm in November and also drier. That's pretty typical of El Nino. 

Our winter outlook is coming right around Thanksgiving. We already have some pretty good ideas on the season ahead, which might be exciting for some of you, but others may be moaning and groaning. Stay tuned...