Weird winter for some

It was hard to believe when I read about it, but much of Kansas has received more snow than Chicago to this point in the winter. Wichita has recorded 3.2 inches of snow for the season, with 5.5 inches in Salina, and Dodge City has had about 7. Chicago, through January 15th, has only received 1.3" of snow, and it didn't all come on the same day.

So not only is it unusual, but it is breaking records. In a city that averages between 35 and 40 inches in a winter season, it's very unusual to be this late in winter and still be waiting on the first one inch to fall in a 24 hour time period (from midnight to midnight). This will likely break the record for the latest date for the first one inch of snow to fall ever. If it doesn't happen by January 17th, this will be latest they have ever had to wait for an inch of accumulation to happen on any given calendar day. Amazing, don't you think. The first one inch of snow fell on December 20th in Wichita (nothing unusual about it)

This chart was updated through Jan. 13th showing the top 5 stretches without one inch of snow for a 24 hr time period for Chicago.

Chicago is also setting records with a lack of cold. The first day this winter with a subfreezing high was January 1st, which ties for the latest date without a subfreezing high temperature in winter. Wichita had its first subfreezing high temperature on December 24th.

This chart shows the top 5 latest dates for Chicago to not have had a subfreezing high temperature.

Here in Kansas, this will be a rather chilly week. Bitter cold from the polar regions will slide across much of the eastern US. We will be on the edge of it in Kansas, so typical late January weather is expected. The type of pattern we will see this week continues to be dry. Our next possible storm could be showing up around January 30 or 31st. Stay tuned.

Record low tornadoes

As 2012 comes to a close, this will likely go down as a year with some of the fewest tornadoes on record. This can closely be tied to the drought that has been ongoing for a few years in Kansas and a stubborn high pressure system that was difficult to move for most of the summer.

It can be hard to pin down an exact number of tornadoes, but as a rough estimate, there have been just over 800 tornadoes through the end of September. Official tornado numbers for October, November, and December have not been released yet, but even when those numbers come out, we will likely still have a low number of tornadoes. Last year, there were 1700 tornadoes and a significant death toll too, just over 500 fatalities around the nation. The Joplin tornado alone had a significant loss of life, with over 150 people killed by the EF-5 tornado.

In Kansas, we average about 60-70 tornadoes a year, and across the nation, the average is closer to 1200. One important contribution to thunderstorms and thus tornadoes, is moisture. In a year that has had very little subsoil moisture and little rainfall, it is not a huge surprise the number is down significantly.

Mobile, AL tornado from Christmas Day

The outbreak of severe weather on Christmas Day in the southeast US will go down in history as the largest on record. It's not unheard of to have tornadoes in December, but because the air over much of the US is colder, they are not as frequent as in the spring and summer months.

Winter Forecast 2012-2013

If you are interested in what the winter may have in store for Kansas, you've come to the right place. After weeks of studying the weather pattern and gathering as much information as possible, I've come up with a forecast that will make some happy and others disappointed.

Last year was almost a year without winter as much of Kansas had very little snowfall. Wichita would normally get 15 inches of snow in a winter season, while western Kansas would expect amounts much higher. Goodland, for example, averages close to 40 inches in a winter season.

Two of the factors that were considered in the forecast is El Nino/La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation. The last two winters have been influenced by La Nina, which is unusually cool water along the equator in the Pacific. La Nina has contributed to the drought over the last few years too, but it has finally diminished. El Nino is the opposite of La Nina, when the water temperatures are warmer than normal along the equator. We had anticipated El Nino coming back for the winter season, but it has not developed yet, so this will be a neutral winter (no El Nino and no La Nina)

The other factor I looked at closely is the Arctic Oscillation. It is an index that shows when cold air will dislodge from Arctic region and move south. When the number is negative, it is more likely cold air will move south. Positive numbers represent a pattern that will favor the colder air to stay farther north. The winter of 2010-2011 was a snowy and cold winter, when the Arctic Oscillation numbers were dropping to -4 or -5. Last winter, the numbers were as high as 4 and 5, so it turned out to be a very mild winter. This year, I expect we will have several fluctuations, but in this map here, notice has the red lines are dipping back below 0, which will indicate colder weather for the last week of November and into December. Between Nov. 1 and Nov. 16, the numbers are positive, which correlates nicely with our unseasonably warm weather we've had so far in November.

I expect the dominant pattern this winter will be northwest flow in the upper atmosphere, which will favor cool and dry weather for the central US. With this setup, we'll have a series of cold fronts coming through, but moisture will be lacking and therefore, not much snow when the pattern sets up like the one you see below.

There will be cases of the pattern buckling to the southwest, and that's when the weather should be more exciting around the central US. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is more likely to return to Kansas when a storm develops in the southwest. Our chances for rain and snow will dramatically increase when we see this type of setup, but I call it a secondary pattern because I don't think it will happen that often this winter. We'll probably see it at least 3 times, and that's when we can hope for some drought relief.

So putting this altogether, here's what I've come up with. If I had to make a prediction on snowfall for Wichita, I'd say between 5-10 inches for the season, which is below normal, but more than last winter. Expect warm stretches this winter too, that could be 2 weeks in length. Highs in that time could be in the 60s. But there will be, when the Arctic Oscillation goes negative, cold weather showing up in Kansas, with highs in the 30s. Unfortunately, the drought will persist into spring of 2013. The drought has been so bad and intense that it will take a long time for us to climb out of this dry situation we are in, so maybe spring rains will help, but winter moisture just won't be enough.

You can also view our story on KWCH: http://www.kwch.com/news-ckt-winter-track-what-to-expect-this-winter-20121120,0,2147850.story

We will all know the answer by March or April of 2013, right? All of us can agree... bring on the moisture!!