Cold continues; some snow chances too

If you didn't know any better, you might think we just skipped Thanksgiving and Christmas and went straight to January with the way it feels outside this morning (and will feel throughout the day) Wow! It's just as cold here as it is in Barrow, Alaska (temperature 18 with a wind chill of 8) and Anchorage is 33 with a wind chill of 28.

The cold weather is not going to move much through the rest of the week. Maybe the best news to offer up on this cold day is that the wind should back down by late this afternoon and the rest of the week should not have as much wind (most likely under 20 mph for the remainder of the week)

Possible record lows early Thursday. Here are the numbers to tie or beat

If we are going to have a morning with record lows, it should be Thursday morning with clearing skies. Lows could fall below zero in northwest Kansas and single digits are possible elsewhere. I'm posting the record lows for Wednesday and Thursday so you can watch and see over the next few mornings how close we get. This is so unusual for November, but it's not the first cold outbreak this month has seen.

Jet stream continues to setup farther south, which will keep us below normal into the start of next week.

The weather pattern looks to remain active and rather chilly. The main branch of the jet stream will continue to push colder than average weather down across the central and northern US through early next week. There are a couple of systems that will impact the weather heading into the weekend. It doesn't look like they will be anything more than just some light snow chances, and unlikely it will be enough to cause any travel delays or slick conditions. Yesterday, I posted a model forecast for snow over the weekend, highlighting some areas that could get 4 inches or so. The model has trended a little lower with the amounts today, but that's what we were expecting anyway. Still looks like the snow may begin in western Kansas early Saturday, and then move east into the afternoon. It's all going to be very light with an inch or so possible by Sunday morning.

Weekend snowfall potential - mainly Saturday and Saturday night

We will have another system coming through next week that could bring some moisture back to the central Plains. It could be a rain changing to snow scenario by Tuesday night/Wednesday, so will be keeping a close watch on the trends as that systems comes into better view.

In the meantime, stay warm. We could see some 40 to 50 degree weather back in Kansas by Monday of next week.

Ready or not, here comes winter

Example of how the temperatures may look heading through Monday - Tuesday

Good Monday morning!! I think what is about to happen this week gives a lot of credibility to the long range forecast models that we look at in making predictions. This bitter cold snap has been showing up in the data for just over a week, and it's about to arrive on strong north winds later today and tonight. You will know the front has passed when the wind switches and within a couple hours of the fronts passing, the temperature will have dropped about 15-20 degrees.

Consider this for a moment. The normal high on January 1st is 41 and our forecast is about 10-15 degrees colder than that for the middle and end of the week. So this is definitely a big deal for November.

Front will be through much of the state by 10 p.m. Monday

By 6 p.m. tonight, the front should extend from KC to near Wichita down into western Oklahoma. It won't take long for it to get cold and wind chills tonight will easily fall into the single digits and teens for much of the state. Some snow flurries are likely after dark, but the moisture is very limited and it will move quickly, so there's no chance of any accumulations.

Forecast for snow Saturday/Sunday (this is from one computer model)

So if the long range forecast models are getting better, we should have higher confidence in what may develop this weekend and beyond. There is a chance for our first accumulation of snow to move in Saturday and Sunday.  It's not a big storm system, but the first chance of getting snow to stick to the ground is always a big news story. Based on the way things look now, some parts of the state could get an inch or two by Saturday evening or Sunday morning. The ground should have cooled off a lot by the time we get to the weekend, so that's why we think the snow will probably accumulate when it falls Saturday/Sunday.

And this colder than normal weather is likely to last for 10-12 days. We may not get back above 40 degrees until the weekend before or the week of Thanksgiving.

There is a lot to talk about this week with the changes going on in the atmosphere. Thanks for sharing comments and feel free to ask questions. I'll do my best to answer them in a timely manner. Stay warm.

Snow in November & El Nino may be starting

We've had some really nice fall weather this week in Kansas. Fairly typical for early November with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 30s. But as we've been talking about all week long, the big change will be next week when a STRONG cold front drops through on Monday, sending us back into the 30s for highs. It will be cold enough for our first snow. Once the Arctic air gets here, it's not going to move much through the week. Will we get snow?? It's highly unlikely there will be any big snow events next week (week of Nov. 10) but some of the forecast models are showing at least some light snow or flurries may be possible as early as Monday night or Tuesday morning. There could be another chance later in the week, but the way the pattern is shaping up, it doesn't look like we will have any shoveling to do anytime soon.

Snow isn't unusual in November. In fact, much of the state (on average) gets at least some snow this month. You can click on the image to make it larger. Goodland leads the way with an average November snow of over 4 inches.

Water temperatures showing the early stages of a weak El Nino

We've been expecting El Nino to make a return at any time, and it looks like it is just getting started. There is a particular region in the Pacific where the water temperatures (for 5 consecutive months) have to be .5 Celsius warmer than normal in order for it to be classified as "El Nino". And recent indications are we have reached .6 - .7 That would be considered a weak event, and this is not likely to be anything stronger than that. An El Nino event is significant because it generally has an influence on the weather patterns. El Nino winters around here are usually wetter than normal, but not always. That's what makes forecasting complicated, but one to watch as we head into the cold season. There's a chance this El Nino will continue into spring too, but it will likely continue as a weak event. We will of course be watching and if I see something on the horizon that looks like a big impact, I'll be sure to address it here. Have a good day!