A few close calls on rain

Most of Kansas continues to struggle with the dry weather and lack of significant storms to move through the Plains. Here's a look at some numbers I shared last night on the air, and you have to admit, this is crazy. For one particular place to go over 140 days without .25" is very unusual. And south central Kansas is still waiting on the first 1" of snow.

We have some close calls coming up later this week. After crazy warmth Wednesday, a strong cold front is going to move through Thursday. Just look where the rain starts to develop. It's going to barely miss us to the southeast.

And then this weekend, on the warm side of a front, another batch of rain showers will slide southeast of us. 

We do see a rather large buckle in the jet stream early next week and a setup like we haven't seen all winter. But will we get missed again? It's going to come down to where the front sets up. Right now, there is decent enough confidence to introduce some chance for rain/wintry mix early next week. 

The long range outlook still has plenty of cold weather yet to come. Most of March should have colder than normal weather. For those hoping to get a snow storm yet, there's still a chance. But it feels as if it will take an act of Congress to get it to happen in southern Kansas. 

I would also expect our chances of seeing an early severe weather season to be extremely low. When cold dominates like it probably will in March, chances of severe storms should be on hold. 

Weekend snow chance update

We made it to Friday and here we go again. Another chance for snow pushing into Kansas and once again, the favored snow track is across the north. If you've ever wondered if patterns repeat, this is proof that they do. Northern Kansas is in the right spot for the snow this winter, while the south is left out.

Here's what to expect:

There's not going to be a ton of wind with this snow chance, so blowing snow won't be a big problem. What we lack in wind, we will make up for in COLD air. Wind chills will be pretty ugly Saturday afternoon.

Snow: This will be a powdery snow (not the kind that's good for snowballs and snowmen), but it's moisture nonetheless. We would need about 20 inches to get up close to 1" of liquid, but nobody will get 20" this weekend.

Because this system is NOT coming through the 4 corners area, moisture is somewhat limited once again. But, given the fact some of you in northern Kansas will have 10-14 hours of light snow, it will accumulate. There could easily be 4-5" amounts along and north of I-70. Could it be more? Sure. That's the case with many storms is that some area might pick up something a little higher, but we are trying to give you and overall sense of what the storm could do. 

Sunday: After early morning clouds and a few flurries, the sun comes out.

Could we see some rain next week????? Well, before we get our hopes too high, just remember how things have been going for us all winter. Most of the storms this winter have found a way to go around us, but a batch of moisture coming up from the south could be here by Thursday or Friday.

Snow checkup & a look at what's next

We often talk about repeating setups or patterns, and if you look at where the snow track has been this winter, it's not hard to see... it's north. I've lost count of how many systems have produced snow in northern Kansas, while the rest of us just wait for anything. Right now, 10% of the winter wheat crop is in very poor condition, with 34% considered poor. Drought conditions continue to expand and we will see the new map Thursday.

Here's a checkup on the seasonal snowfall around the state. Even though northern Kansas has been getting snow, most areas are still below normal. 

Early look at the weekend:

I see so many different forecasts out there. I see forecasts calling for freezing drizzle, ice, sleet, etc. Please don't panic. What we get this weekend will be cold, clouds, and a few very light snow showers Saturday. This weekend weather (albeit cold), shouldn't be that rough around Kansas. Here's what the setup looks like:

1) Colder air starts surging in Friday. Temperatures will be falling through the day.

2) Next feature to watch is a little system coming over the Rockies and into Kansas Saturday.

It looks like some light snow will move across the area (some accumulation possible), but the best chances for icy weather will likely setup east of our area. So if you plan to go east of the Flint Hills OR into northeast Oklahoma on Saturday, you could very well run into some slick roads. 

3) Sun will be coming back on Sunday, but it's still going to be cold.

Looking deeper into February, we still don't see any major changes taking place in the overall setup. This stubborn north/northwest wind pattern will continue. That's been the trouble all winter. And any system that comes in on those northwest winds doesn't produce much in the way of widespread moisture. We are in a rough spot right now, but I keep looking down the road trying to find something. For now... we just keep waiting and preparing to brave the cold. I do think temperatures are going to warm later this month, but we still have plenty more cold coming in March.