Snowfall forecast - how much?

It's Election Day and hopefully you get out and vote (if you haven't done so already). The weather doesn't look that bad today, but some sprinkles or showers will be passing through central and eastern Kansas. 

Alright, on to the snow chance coming Thursday. What's most difficult about forecasting this storm is figuring out when rain will change to snow. If it happens earlier in the day, then expect more snow. If it's a little later, then snowfall amounts could be a little less. Bottom line is that we will have some accumulations and travel (at least in some parts of central and northern Kansas) could be impacted.

How much?

This is what I'm thinking on snowfall accumulation. Heaviest should be across northern Kansas where temperatures are colder longer.

Farther south, rain will cut into the amounts of snow, but generally an inch or two should do it. This snow will have some heavy moisture content, so it could pile up quickly. We will have to watch that.

Timing:

Snow should already be underway by daybreak Thursday in northwest Kansas. The area of light rain and snow will spread south and east during the day. Morning rush hour probably won't be that bad Thursday, but conditions will change during the day. Evening rush will have wet and slushy conditions, especially farther north. 

Arctic air watch:

I'll update you on this Wednesday, but we are closely watching the possibility that Arctic air will slide in here early next week. It may only be early November, but we may have our first bitter cold snap coming soon. Be sure to check back.

Chances for snow this week

Hope you had a great weekend. The weather maybe wasn't as nice as some previous weekends we've had, but for early November, it wasn't too rough.

As you've probably heard by now, there is a chance for snow later this week. We've had this on our 10 day forecast now for the past 4 days and it still looks to be setting up for Thursday. This is not going to be a big storm, but we do have a chance of seeing some accumulation.

Colder air begins to settle in Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be struggling to climb through the 40s and clouds will be increasing throughout the day.

Thursday-Snow chances begin in the west and will gradually develop and move east through the day. Some of the snow will melt as it falls, but we do expect accumulation as the day continues on and temperatures get a little colder. 

Early thoughts on amounts: Given the fact it's not much of a storm, and the system doesn't stick around for too long, we will probably see some 1-3" amounts. Computer models give most of the 3" amounts to areas in western Kansas (where it gets colder first), but location can shift around as new data comes in. 

Please be careful what you share on Facebook and Twitter. This time of year, we see so many wild snow predictions out there that what we consume can be misleading. We will have updates on our later newscasts to help you get ready for this change.

Looking ahead: Much colder than normal weather looks to remain over the Plains through at least the middle of next week. As we pointed out in the last blog update, temperatures should be warming up closer to Thanksgiving. So if you're having a hard time with this forecast, we do have some good news waiting in the wings. Have a great Monday.

November outlook

November is off and rolling. We have ourselves a very active start to the new month. Already two storms on the horizon and a shot at some very chilly air coming next week.

Saturday:

This system comes over the Rockies and will likely have most of the moisture scraped away before it arrives. However, there's still a chance for a few showers in central and eastern Kansas. 

Timing: Mainly afternoon into evening

Amounts: Trace - 0.05"

Monday:

This area of low pressure will be a bit stronger and more than likely offer up a better chance at some rain. There's no chance of snow in Kansas, but some chilly rain showers are likely.

Timing: Morning through mid-afternoon

Amounts: .25-.50" for mainly central and eastern Kansas

Just after Election Day:

We see colder air slipping south and hanging around the central Plains for at least 2 if not 3 days. I don't think it will set any records, but it sure looks like we could be 15° colder than normal. That would put us with highs in the 40s around most of the state.

Closer to Thanksgiving:

If you are NOT a fan of fall weather, there should be a warming trend kicking in closer to mid-November. And if this particular set of data is correct, it will come BEFORE Thanksgiving gets here. So we might get lucky and have some milder weather this year (and good travel) for the big holiday.