Two storms and an early look to Thanksgiving

Hope your week is off to a great start and we will soon have another cold front and storm tracking through the Plains. It's coming off the West coast and moving east quickly - and it won't be in Kansas very long either. The system arriving Wednesday brings rain to central and eastern Kansas. Those of you across the west are likely feeling cheated and this is something we have to think about as we make our winter forecast.

Wednesday rain timing:

Should get going by late morning in central Kansas (east of a Dodge City to Hays line)

Mid-afternoon - the rain keeps pushing east.

Amounts:

Safe to expect .50" totals from this one, but I am certain there will be areas that get more and farther west, amounts go down quickly. This doesn't look like a severe weather setup, but there will be thunderstorms and that will help boost amounts.

Hard freeze Saturday morning:

As the winds calm a bit and skies go mostly clear, I think we will have lows in the 20s around much of the state. A killing freeze looks to be on track. Any amount of cloud cover or shift in winds may change things a bit, but the areas that have not dropped below 32 should get there to start the weekend.

Another storm next week (Nov. 17/18)

This looks to be the case, once again around Wednesday/Thursday. It may have a rain AND snow component, but since the storm hasn't formed yet, we don't know very many details. 

Early Thanksgiving thoughts:

Will it be warm enough to send some family outside, or will we be stuck inside because of the cold? What will the travel weather be like? Plenty of questions leading up to the big holiday and a really busy time of year. Right now, expect the Plains to be cold - likely an indoor Thanksgiving holiday this year. I'm not sure yet if we will have rain or snow around the holiday, but it does appear that we are going to have a pretty chilly holiday.

November warmth will be followed by another storm

Nearing the end of our first week in November and it has been colder than normal for most of the Plains. However, a good portion of the state has NOT had a killing freeze yet. 

Changes this weekend with the highly advertised warm up (jet stream goes back north) will send us back into the 70s. I think we will even have some 80s in southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon if you can believe that. Record highs? Maybe close in some spots, but not likely in very many places.

Expect a cold front to arrive Monday:

This isn't anything dramatic, but our temperatures go back down to 50s and 60s - closer to the average in November.

The West gets active once again - Another rain/snow making storm will come into the coast Monday/Tuesday that should produce some widespread moisture from California to Washington. Models are indicating 1-3" on the coastline and heavy, wet snows will occur in the Sierras and Cascades.

Getting out of drought will take some significant time. After all the heavy rain in late October, some areas more than 10 inches above average (map shown below), there's still dire need for more rain. 

 

There's still widespread exceptional drought in California and Nevada, with extreme to exceptional drought ongoing in Oregon and Washington.

Storm for Kansas:

 

Looking like an arrival of Wednesday for the Plains states. This is most likely going to be a rain event with some snow passing us by to the north. It's early to speculate on amounts because it will depend on how fast the system comes through. 

Once the system departs, we will open up to colder air filtering in for the end of the week and our second weekend of November. November from the start has look colder than average, and that still looks like it's going to hold up moving forward. There is also a GOOD chance to have a hard freeze heading into next weekend.

Have a wonderful weekend. Don't forget to FALL back.

Chilly rain - pattern shift on the horizon

Hope your week is off to a good start. The weather we are having right now is more typical of our winter months (Dec - Jan), not early November. Our normal high falls to the low 40s around Christmas time, so it's for sure out of place.

Total rainfall through Wednesday won't be much. There isn't much of a storm to track - this is more of a cloudy, damp pattern that persists long enough to get some measurable precipitation, but amounts will be very light. I think rainfall totals will come in under .25" and snowfall will be even lower, likely just trace amounts.

Did you see this from Nebraska Monday morning? This was I-80 near Kearney - grassy areas covered for a bit, but since the ground is still plenty of warm (around 40°), it didn't survive the afternoon temperatures.

Pattern Shift: This is coming into better view for later in the week. It's going to warm back above normal by the weekend and our second full week of November looks quite a bit warmer AND dry. It's nature just balancing things out really.

Cold air reloads for mid-late November, which means we may have some very chilly weather for early Thanksgiving travel. And it may be quite chilly around the holiday itself. Here's a map with . It's quite possible we will have another cold snap for any early Thanksgiving travel. 

Have a great day.