How the upcoming storm track differs from big winter storms

The low pressure system tracking into the area will not be one with big snows for our immediate area. We say that with high confidence because of the way this storm approaches Kansas. Our latest forecast looks like this: 

Systems that approach Kansas from the northwest are usually limited on moisture. They tend to lack good, rich Gulf of Mexico humidity and therefore, precipitation amounts are generally lower.

Winter storms that are more significant tend to come through the 4 Corners region, with a tendency to ingest higher humidity. Track is always key, but there is a stark difference between the current system and a more robust winter storm that comes in from the southwest. 

That being said, there will still be some light snow into Saturday. Biggest travel concerns will be in northeast Kansas where some 2-4 inch amounts look likely. That will probably lead to snow packed roads for a time Saturday, but by evening, conditions will likely improve even for those areas.

Very strong winds likely: We are also up against wind gusts of 40-55 mph from Friday afternoon through daybreak Saturday. Blowing dust and high fire danger are also a concern for western Kansas. 

A snapshot of wind gusts around 7pm:

And another after midnight:

Heads up for more cold weather middle of next week:

Another potent cold front should drop through the area Tuesday night/early Wednesday. We are working to figure out just how cold it's going to be and for how long, but the coldest day of the week is likely Thursday when highs will be in the teens and 20s. I don't think this is something that will continue for a long period of time, but it's going to be bitterly cold with some flurries possible Wednesday and Thursday.

We will likely have a dry setup for the second half of January. The long range pattern would suggest not much rain or snow for the next couple of weeks. If we do get some moisture, it will be very light. Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Next winter system soon to arrive

The Pacific Northwest is getting hammered with more rain and mountain snows Wednesday/Thursday. Flooding is a threat around Seattle with 2-3" of rain expected through Thursday night. That will likely move 2022 to the #1 spot for "wettest start to any calendar year" for that area.

I point out this system because it's going to track through the northern Rockies and then begin its decent into the central Plains. Every model run in the last couple of days continues to shift the system a bit farther south. That's why the forecast in the last 24 hours has changed and we are mentioning snow for several areas of the state.

If the track holds up, the heaviest snow with this system will fall across eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and into Missouri.

Low pressure systems that track in from the northwest are 99% of the time nothing more than light precipitation makers. They don't normally have the moisture supply that other systems coming from the southwest tend to have. As far as timing is concerned, it should be after dark Friday night for things to get started. Initially, it looks like some rain will fall. Here's a snapshot of 10-11pm Friday:

Then early Saturday morning:

Saturday afternoon should see it tapering off from north to south. Early indications point to a TRACE-1" for much of our immediate area, but from Smith Center to Salina to Emporia (east of that line), it could easily be 1-3". This means KC will have a fresh blanket of snow prior to everyone gathering for the Chiefs game on Sunday.

A return to winter:

Wind is something we will have Friday night and Saturday. Gusts will likely be around 30 mph straight out of the north. Wind chills are going to be pretty ugly Saturday morning and into the early afternoon. 

Wind Chills 6am:

Wind Chills 1pm:

Have a great day. Enjoy the mild weather while we have it.

A quiet week before cold air reloads

The pattern this week looks fairly benign, which should equate to some nice weather by January standards. It's not going to be the record warmth that December left us with, but there should be some fairly mild days coming up and maybe we'll get some 60s before it's over. 

Setup this week:

It's likely that we'll have a few days with high pressure setting up near the central Rockies. Jet stream winds return north, and this should mean uneventful weather for the central US. The really cold weather quickly retreats north and east when the pattern sets up like this. This isn't something that will last for very long as you'll see in a moment.

Temperatures Tuesday:

Temperatures Wednesday:

Temperatures Thursday:

Unfortunately, earlier talk of rain for our immediate area is out (surprise, surprise). The system never looked all that strong, and now models are completely washing out the system. This should be a dry week coming up. 

Late week front: Friday-Friday night, a cold front will come through with stronger north winds returning. Temperatures will drop, but this does not appear to be Arctic air arriving. It looks like highs in the 35-40° range for this area, which is not as extreme as recent fronts.

There will be a close encounter with some snow, but given the track of the storm (coming from the northwest), I wouldn't expect this to be anything more than a "close call" or a light snow chance into Friday night. We'll post more as it gets closer, but likely a dud for Kansas. 

More potential Arctic air coming - heads up for the second half of January. Trends continue to look colder as we move into January week 3 and 4. Northern and central Plains, upper Midwest, and points to the east will likely experience a reloading of bitter cold. A big winter storm seems unlikely given that whatever comes this way will likely approach from the west/northwest.